An Interesting Point of View Concerning Which Game to Play
http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html
<a href="http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html">
http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html</a>
Hmmmmhh. I'm not sure, but I have a gut feeling that the King isn't
wearing any clothes.
An Interesting Point of View Concerning Which Game to Play
http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html
<a
href="http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html">
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:
http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html</a>
Hmmmmhh. I'm not sure, but I have a gut feeling that the King
isn't
wearing any clothes.
Dancer's reasoning sort of makes sense to me w/o checking his
numbers. He assumes both the NSU and JOB plays are worth 100.25%
with slot club. As NSU is a higher EV game (99.7% vs. 99.54%) the
difference must be made up by the higher frequency of card of the
day suited quads in JOB. [Numbers not checked.] Assuming each play
is desirable based on hourly rate, there are, on average, more
profitable hours available on the NSU play, and therefore may be the
more desirable play. [More hours @ $30 hr. = more money.]
David
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ozymandias77096" <ugwf@h...> wrote:
just a quick cut at it:
quad cycle for job is 423x13=5499 so 125 cod is worth
125/5/5499=0.45%, so total return is 99.54%+0.45%=100%
if nsu quad cycle is 600x13=7800, then 125 cod is worth
125/5/7800=0.32%, so total return is 99.7%+0.3%=100%
same return
now add 1% cashback/bounceback/comp
job earning rate is 5499x1%=55 bets per coupon
nsu earning rate is 7800x1%=78 bets per coupon
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ozymandias77096" <ugwf@h...> wrote:
Hmmmmhh. I'm not sure, but I have a gut feeling that the King isn't
wearing any clothes.--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:
>
> An Interesting Point of View Concerning Which Game to Play
>
> http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html
>
> <a
href="http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html">
> http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html</a>
I refrained from questioning BD's 3-22-05 column in hopes that
someone would come to my rescue and explain it.
I agree with Ozymandias that something is amiss here. And I
appreciate the two subsequent posts from David and Iggy, although I
did not understand Iggy's conclusion.
I will throw in a number of caveats here--I'm not a vp pro; I'm
not an actuary; I'm not very bright--but this column made absolutely
no sense to me.
When BD says "the only time the promotion has value to a player is
when it hasn't been collected yet," I am left very confused. If this
logic were carried to the extreme, then a player would never want to
collect any promotion lest his dollar per hour return be decreased.
It seems to me that just the opposite is true. In BD's column,
the first pro referred to--Al--appears to me to have the correct take
on this issue.
I also wondered if this was supposed to be BD's April 1 column,
but it was accidentally run 10 days early.
I would appreciate any help in understanding BD's thinking since
he is probably correct and I am missing something very obvious.
Dan
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ozymandias77096" <ugwf@h...> wrote:
Hmmmmhh. I'm not sure, but I have a gut feeling that the King isn't
wearing any clothes.--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:
>
> An Interesting Point of View Concerning Which Game to Play
>
> http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html
>
> <a
href="http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html">
> http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0322.html</a>
When BD says "the only time the promotion has value to a player
is
when it hasn't been collected yet," I am left very confused.
Only for that particular promotion, which is a 125 cod for job or nsu,
in which case the promotion actually has zero net value, it just
covers the cost of playing job and nsu which are both negative
expectation games. For both games, on average, it costs you 125 to get
the 125 cod, i.e. net even. So you'd better be playing for something
else, presumably comps, and if the comps are based on play, then the
longer play is the better play. However this conclusion is no longer
correct for example for a 250 cod or a 50 for any quad. Also it
assumes the 125 cod is limited, say one per day or something like
that. If the 125 cod is good all day for as many as you can get, then
job and nsu have the same return (assuming 1 deuce quints count), in
which case job is the better game because the variance is less
(variance of the base game and variance of the cod).
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "sechkardan" <sechkar@e...> wrote:
Hmmmmhh. I'm not sure, but I have a gut feeling that the King
isn't wearing any clothes.
When BD says "the only time the promotion has value to a player is
when it hasn't been collected yet," I am left very confused. If this
logic were carried to the extreme, then a player would never want to
collect any promotion lest his dollar per hour return be decreased.
Remember that the COD bonus can only be collected one day a week and
only once on that day. It's SOP to stop playing as soon as you get
the COD because neither game is positive without the COD as a kicker.
BD is just saying that you will have a higher total EV per COD cycle
playing NSUD than playing 9/6 JoB, assuming your EV per hour is
identical for both games ... which it is if your speed and accuracy
is identical for both games.
Total EV @ $30 per hour for the 5 hour JoB COD cycle equals $150.
Total EV @ $30 per hour for the 9 hour NSUD COD cycle equals $270.
Of course you have to play an additional 4 hours per cycle to collect
the extra $120. Also, there are additional benefits to playing longer
at this casino since they have a generous BBC program.
vpFREE Administrator
On 25 Mar 2005 at 13:21, sechkardan wrote:
vpFREE wrote:
BD is just saying that you will have a higher total EV per COD cycle
playing NSUD than playing 9/6 JoB, assuming your EV per hour is
identical for both games ... which it is if your speed and accuracy
is identical for both games.Total EV @ $30 per hour for the 5 hour JoB COD cycle equals $150.
Total EV @ $30 per hour for the 9 hour NSUD COD cycle equals $270.
Yep. To state it slightly differently, if you're playing this promo,
it's because it's the best hourly EV opportunity you've got at that
moment. It only makes sense to play the game for which you have the
longest expected play at the EV.
- Harry (catching up on posts after a profitable AC trip 