vpFREE2 Forums

Bob Dancer's Latest CasinoGaming.com Column

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jackessiebabe" <jackessiebabe@y...>
wrote:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I'm wondering, now that BD has "outed" his
own "advantage" progressive play at Sam's Town, what the results of
the revelations in his column will be?

Will ST kill the play as being too juicy? Or, was the play already
dead, and therefore there was no harm in revealing details? Or,
perhaps, was the play not quite as advantagious asne might be lead
to believe?

I guess I just don't understand the underlying reason for a pro of
the calibre of BD, to possibly kill one of his OWN good plays, by
naming names etc. Even though most vp players don't play at the
$5.00 level, and therefore would not take advantage of this play,
what about competition from other pros who do play at this level?

If BD had written a general column about how he attacks
progressives, w/o giving up the machine and location, I could
certainly understand that he was just trying to educate his
readership. However, this very specific column would seem to me to
be just a tad more altruistic than that.

If anyone on the board has an idea about this, I would certainly
appreciate it if they would share their thoughts.

Thanks.

Babe

I am reasonably familiar with the bank to which Mr. Dancer's column

refers; it is located just to the right of main cage at Sams Town.

I have been tracking this on vpadv.com (prog = bp85/500#806); values,
since the first of the year:

  Date/time observed RF $

2005-01-02 07:30:00 | 20400 |
2005-01-08 02:28:00 | 20600 |
2005-01-12 04:00:00 | 20805 |
2005-01-22 19:00:00 | 20100 |
2005-02-03 22:31:00 | 20500 |
2005-02-09 05:30:00 | 21500 |

Mr. Dancer's column clearly states that he would only play this--even
on 6x points days (= 0.6% cashback)--if the RF value were over
26000. His math, concerning the breakeven point, is substantially
accurate; break-even, on the game itself, is a little over $27000.

As others have pointed out, one would need a pretty good-sized
bankroll to play this game; in the area of 3-5 RF's = $60-100k. Even
so, it appears clear to me that Mr. Dancer's analysis is valid . .

For those of us with lesser bankrolls, there is another bp85
progressive, near Roxy's bar; this is also tracked (bp85/q#726) on
vpadv. Since first of year:

Date/time Avg RF Percent

2005-01-07 02:15:00 | 1700.00 | .7100 |
2005-01-08 02:15:00 | 1730.00 | .7800 |
2005-01-10 04:00:00 | 1859.00 | 1.0900 |
2005-01-12 04:00:00 | 1910.00 | 1.2200 |
2005-01-12 21:00:00 | 1950.00 | 1.3100 |
2005-01-14 07:35:00 | 2000.00 | 1.4400 |
2005-01-22 19:00:00 | 1700.00 | 0.7100 |
2005-02-03 22:31:00 | 1350.00 |-0.0600 |
2005-02-09 05:30:00 | 1400.00 | 0.0500 |

This is very similar to the $5 version; fact that each suit has its
own RF payoff is also to player's advantage.

Sams town also has a number of other progressives which are at times
worth playing; details are available at vpadv.com.

In BD's column on progressives he mentions the "rule of thumb" below.

"My personal rule of thumb for this game at this casino is to add the
progressive amount of the game (in thousands) and the point
multiplier. If it adds up to 32 or higher, then it's an acceptable
play for me (depending on what else is going on at the time.) That
is, for 6x points, I play at $26K or higher because 26 + 6 = 32. For
4x points, I play at $28K and higher, and for single points, I'd only
play at $31K or higher."

What is this based on? I've never seen this mentioned before, in his
books, etc. or by anyone else.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:

I had to think about this for a moment too. My conclusion was that on this
game every 1K over reset adds roughly .1 to ER. .6 CB obviously adds .6 to
ER. Tack these additions onto a base return of roughly 99.1 and I ballpark
it at a positive ER of 100.3. If I'm right, it could have been explained a
little better.

Chandler

···

-----Original Message-----
From: brumar_lv [mailto:brumar…@…com]
Sent: Thursday, February 10, 2005 5:25 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's Latest CasinoGaming.com Column

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:

In BD's column on progressives he mentions the "rule of thumb" below.

"My personal rule of thumb for this game at this casino is to add the
progressive amount of the game (in thousands) and the point
multiplier. If it adds up to 32 or higher, then it's an acceptable
play for me (depending on what else is going on at the time.) That
is, for 6x points, I play at $26K or higher because 26 + 6 = 32. For
4x points, I play at $28K and higher, and for single points, I'd only
play at $31K or higher."

What is this based on? I've never seen this mentioned before, in his
books, etc. or by anyone else.

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

Is there a web site that gives you information on
Vegas/Nevada cashback (percentages,
instant/bounceback).

Thanks,

Nat

···

__________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
The all-new My Yahoo! - What will yours do?
http://my.yahoo.com

All individual casino pages in the DataBase
have cash back and comp info, when available.
BBC is a lot trickier, and is no longer being formally
collated on vpFREE.

<http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Lund.htm> is a
vpFREE link to Charles Lund's data.

vpFREE Administrator

···

On 10 Feb 2005 at 16:50, Nat Royal wrote:

Is there a web site that gives you information on
Vegas/Nevada cashback (percentages,
instant/bounceback).

i think that's what he's up to, basically he's saying 8/5 bonus with
1040 rf and .6% cashback is playable and equivalent to 8/5 bonus with
1240 rf and .1% cashback
they are not of course equivalent because cashback has no variance
whereas royals have lots of variance
plug these two games into:
http://www.wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html
results:
8/5 bonus with 1040 rf and .6% cashback:
er=99.78%+.6%=100.38%,var=35, 10%ror bankroll=9,728 bets
8/5 bonus with 1240 rf and .1% cashback:
er=100.35%+.1%=100.45%,var=50, 10%ror bankroll=11,786 bets

my suggestion is that you need at least a percent to make most games
playable, for example:
8/5 bonus with 1500 rf:
er=101%,var=73, 10%ror bankroll=6338 bets

but if you're willing to risk more money for less return, by all means
be my guest

I had to think about this for a moment too. My conclusion was that

on this

game every 1K over reset adds roughly .1 to ER. .6 CB obviously

adds .6 to

ER. Tack these additions onto a base return of roughly 99.1 and I

ballpark

it at a positive ER of 100.3. If I'm right, it could have been

explained a

little better.

Chandler

From: brumar_lv [mailto:brumar_lv@y…]
Sent: Thursday, February 10, 2005 5:25 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's Latest CasinoGaming.com Column

>>>>>>>>>>>
In BD's column on progressives he mentions the "rule of thumb"

below.

"My personal rule of thumb for this game at this casino is to add

the

progressive amount of the game (in thousands) and the point
multiplier. If it adds up to 32 or higher, then it's an acceptable
play for me (depending on what else is going on at the time.) That
is, for 6x points, I play at $26K or higher because 26 + 6 = 32. For
4x points, I play at $28K and higher, and for single points, I'd

only

play at $31K or higher."

What is this based on? I've never seen this mentioned before, in

his

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Chandler" <omnibibulous1@c...> wrote:

-----Original Message-----
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:
books, etc. or by anyone else.

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

That Cindy calculator is interesting, thanks for the link. I just ran those numbers into the Optimum VP ROR calculator which uses sorokin and came up with the same result, i.e. approximately $ 1/4 million dollar bankroll is necessary to attack this machine with a 90% chance of survival.

regards...Tom

···

----- Original Message -----

8/5 bonus with 1040 rf and .6% cashback:
er=99.78%+.6%=100.38%,var=35, 10%ror bankroll=9,728 bets

in the short term, there's a 5% chance of going 3 royal cycles without
a royal:
royal cycle for this game is 36,153 hands (number from winpoker)
return without royal is 100.38% - 2.88% = 97.5% (2.5% loss)
loss over 3 royal cycles = 36,153 x 3 x 2.5% = 2,711 bets
(note: if you can't hit a royal, the meter progression is meaningless)

>8/5 bonus with 1040 rf and .6% cashback:
>er=99.78%+.6%=100.38%,var=35, 10%ror bankroll=9,728 bets

That Cindy calculator is interesting, thanks for the link. I just

ran those

numbers into the Optimum VP ROR calculator which uses sorokin and

came up

with the same result, i.e. approximately $ 1/4 million dollar

bankroll is

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tomflush" <tomflush@n...> wrote:

----- Original Message -----
necessary to attack this machine with a 90% chance of survival.

regards...Tom

It does not make sense that any pro player would risk his bankroll
with such a small edge. Sometimes the ER on the lottery goes over
100%, but I think it would be hard to make a living playing the lottery.

There is another ER issue that is not addressed by BD. He mentions
the W-2G and taking care of that issue for the smaller payoffs, but
what about the tax issue on a $30,000 royal. If you are near the end
of the year and have a profit playing vp for the year and you have
other income, you are going to lose 25% of the jackpot to taxes.
Shouldn't the taxes be factored into the equation to determine ER for
this situation?

Chris

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

···

i think that's what he's up to, basically he's saying 8/5 bonus with
1040 rf and .6% cashback is playable and equivalent to 8/5 bonus with
1240 rf and .1% cashback
they are not of course equivalent because cashback has no variance
whereas royals have lots of variance
plug these two games into:
http://www.wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html
results:
8/5 bonus with 1040 rf and .6% cashback:
er=99.78%+.6%=100.38%,var=35, 10%ror bankroll=9,728 bets
8/5 bonus with 1240 rf and .1% cashback:
er=100.35%+.1%=100.45%,var=50, 10%ror bankroll=11,786 bets

my suggestion is that you need at least a percent to make most games
playable, for example:
8/5 bonus with 1500 rf:
er=101%,var=73, 10%ror bankroll=6338 bets

but if you're willing to risk more money for less return, by all means
be my guest