Private email to DrainBramage:
Bob "Golds Gym" Dancer writes:
"I have a workout buddy at the gym who I'll call Cody. Cody and I go three
times a week and encourage each other to show up on time and do all of the
exercises. We're both seniors and our workout goals are mainly to keep fit. We
certainly aren't going to impress anybody with the weights we lift."
<<< Don't lie Bob. His name is Skip and all you guys do at the gym is fool
around then you go to Ellis Island and trick the pizza clerk over and over by
showing the coupon for free pizza and beer then cupping your hand shut
without handing it over then getting another round.
On the chest press, for example, the bench we use has a 45-pound bar. It's
possible that the bar is 20 kilograms (44 pounds), but I've always heard 45.
The highest weight I add is 35 pounds to each side of the bar. The highest
weight Cody ever adds is 5 pounds to each side of the bar.
<<< They used to have that paytable at the old Vegas World, Jacks 9/7, 45
35, nice game
I tease him that I'm lifting seven times the weight that he is, because 35
is seven times as much as 5 pounds. We both know that this is just fun with
numbers. The total weight I'm lifting is 115 pounds (45 + 35 + 35 = 115) and
the total weight he is lifting is 55 pounds (45 + 5 + 5 = 55). I'm actually
lifting a little more than twice the weight that he is (I'm also eight inches
taller than he is, haven't had a shoulder operation, and we're not really
competing with each other anyway), but it's easy to see how the "seven times as
much" teasing goes on.
<<< Now you can bench press Shirley
Now let's switch to video poker in the Guaranteed Play version. In this
game, you pay up front and are guaranteed a certain number of hands. You cannot
lose more than the initial amount you play no matter how badly it goes.
<<< We were all having fun until you changed the subject to Guaranteed Play
Assume you are playing the Guaranteed Play version of a Jacks or Better game
with a good pay schedule for dollars. For the sake of argument, let's assume
you pay $100 up front for a guaranteed 200 hands. Assume further that you've
played this game several dozen times and are looking at your results, trying
to analyze whether it has been a worthwhile experiment or not.
<<< At this point switch your column to Spanish. They might go for it.
To keep numbers easy, let's assume that your average return for the $100
invested each time was $90. Percentagewise, how much is this return?
It seems easy to say that $90 / $100 = 90%. But hold on. There's another
valid way to look at it. The 200 hands you played, costing $5 apiece, were worth
a total of $1,000. Losing $10 out of $1,000 means your return is 99%, not
90%.
It's still a $10 loss, no matter what percentage you come up with, so does
the percentage return really matter?
I think the answer is "yes." A 99% game is playable for many people,
especially when a generous slot club is present. Although better games can be found
at some casinos by knowledgeable players, 99% isn't terrible. A 90% game is
unplayable for anybody with a clue.
So which is it --- 90% or 99%? I believe the 99% number is the valid one
here. A respected analyst, Michael Shackleford, believes that the 90% figure is
the appropriate one. On his website, www.wizardofodds.com, he defends this
point of view.
I don't know what the typical player will conclude about this. If the game
is going to catch on, it is mandatory that the customers conclude they get de
cent value for the game. 99% is decent value. 90% isn't.
One of the paradoxes about the game is that the smartest players and
analysts are going to avoid playing Guaranteed Play other than when lucrative
promotions are included with the game. (It is geared primarily for the more casual
player.) But it is only the smartest players and analysts who have a shot at
figuring out what the game is worth.
<<< Hummmmm You're asking, "Your money or your life"... I'm thinking... I'm
thinking. So is Jose the electrician/copper thief. Meanwhile, more Gaming
Board mandated machine dusters for the Guaranteed Play machines are getting
arrested for being undocumented... Busted dusters.
P.S. I was talking to a super at a construction site. He told of a pickup
truck pulling up to the back door of a project. A guy jumps out and asks one of
the new electricians, "Can you help me load these spools of wire? I have to
take them to the other job site." The thief gets help and gets down the street
before the super finds out. They chase him in their trucks but he gets away.
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