Which is Better?
<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6mmd3m">
http://tinyurl.com/6mmd3m</a>
************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes and doesn't
constitute an endorsement or approval of the linked article's
content by vpFREE. Any discussion of the article must be done
in accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
************************************************
Bob,
I think you simplified things too much...
6. How much gambling bankroll do you have? ... if you're willing to fade a 10% chance of
going broke, you're going to need $86,000 bankroll to play the NSU game and $379,000
to play 9/6 Jacks. Since we're only playing the game for a relatively few hours, this
numbers are WAY too high, but it does illustrate that you need more than four times the
bankroll to play the 9/6 Jacks game than you do the NSU game.....
... . If both games are available, it's a no-brainer to play the one that returns the higher
amount. In today's example, the only reason we were considering different games is that
$2 is the highest denomination where NSU is found.
It's certainly not a "no-brainer" to play the game with the higher return even assuming
both games (NSU & 9/6 Jacks) are available at the same denomination. For a small # of
gas cards (say 1), the probability of playing enough (surviving long enough to earn the
card/s) is generally higher for JoB than for NSUD. Indeed, it would be higher for JoB than
for FPDW. Sure, one's EV is lower for JoB, but the likelihood of playing long enough to earn
gas card is higher. The RoR (playing forever) bankroll doesn't really matter here at all.
The important factor is the RoR for the number of hands required for n-gas cards. At the
stakes mentioned, that's so few hands for the first few gas cards that the lower variance of
JoB wins out over the higher EV of NSUD or even FPDW. But as you get up to 50 gas cards,
I'd think the EV of NSUD does win out... One can compute these RoR per n-gas cards
numbers. And I think you'll find that for small n, JoB gives you a smaller RoR than NSUD
unless you have, well, a real lot of money to throw at this promotion. [Moral: the no brainer depends on your bankroll, how many cards you want to earn, your tolerance for
risk, and the variance of the game]
cdsrule wrote about my article: [Moral: the no brainer depends on your bankroll, how many cards you want to earn, your tolerance for risk, and the variance of the game]
Your point is well-taken. Thank you.
Bob Dancer
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]