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In this article, Bob Dancer wrote:
...
But if you assume you need a royal flush to get in the top ten, then
it makes sense to me to play for the royal EVERY HAND. That is, from
Ah As Ad Ac Kh, you should hold Ah Kh and toss the other three aces!
Although some people will find it against their religion to break up
four aces, keeping the hand will only give you 125 credits. That's
peanuts when you need 4,300 or more to win! On a practical basis, it
is impossible to get 35 four-of-a-kinds in 60 hands in order to
reach the goal of 4,300 without getting a royal. Your only chance to
get enough is to play appropriately and hope to get lucky. ...
Bob:
If you assume you need a royal flush to get in the top ten, then
won't the "peanuts" come in handy for jockeying for position? It
seems like the 125 credits could make a big difference.
I thought a decent strategy would be to hold all positive
expectation deals (Flush 4 and higher), hold Royal 3 over High Pair,
and then AFTER hitting a royal, go back to max EV strategy. I look
forward to VP Pappy's report on the results.
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FWIW, Jeff, your suggestion is what I proposed on 4/3. While Bob's
logic is compelling to some extent, I'd still go with my proposal on this.
Bob argues that it really comes down to one thing -- all the top
finishers can be expected to have hit a royal. Thus, you go "balls to
the wall" in an effort to hit a royal in the tournament, to the
exclusion of all other holds (including dealt winners), until you hit one.
Frankly, I can see this strategy getting you nothing at all even if
you hit a royal. Bob's numbers suggest that you might look for 10-15
royals in the tournament. My guess is that there will be more, at
least 15-20. This distinction is an important consideration as I'll
go on to explain shortly.
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Because you only look for about 50-60 hands to be played, differences
between the top scores is going to be small. I would look for 20 or
less credits to separate many of the positions from another.
Therefore, I look for what happens outside that targeted royal to
determine which players, of those who hit a royal, actually finish in
the top 10.
Presumably, under Dancer's strategy, you switch back to max ER
strategy after getting a royal. But until then, credits wracked up by
a "make or break" Dancer player is going to be sharply different than
someone still playing an agressive strategy, but considerably more
moderate (such as the one I detailed).
Under Dancer's strategy you expect to receive back just 49% of played
credits (excl. RF). Under the one I proposed, the figure is 96%.
Over the course of the tournament, look for 150 credits difference
between the two plays if a RF isn't hit. For players who hit
mid-session, look for a 75 cr. difference.
Obviously working in the blind here, I'll still suggest that 75 cr.
average difference will be good for a 4 or 5 position notch up in the
rankings. That's nothing to overlook, especially if under an
assumption of 15 royals, it would might well mean that Dancer strategy
finisher's who hit a royal have a MUCH higher chance of finishing in
the bottom 5 and out of the money.
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But the fact that Dancer strategy players have a strong shot at a
royal isn't anything to sneeze at. But how much better are the odds?
May you expect 3:1. Try again -- 3:2.
It comes down to personality. A "go for broke" kinda guy is
definitely going to find Dancer's reasoning appealing. But, then
again, I wouldn't be surprised if they're they type that will hold an
Ace kicker to trip deuces in DDB.
I'll simply acknowledge that it's still going to come down to a lotta
luck as to whether I'll hit a royal or not. "3:2" isn't going to find
me sacrificing all else for this added edge. I'll push a little more
conservatively and go the route that stands to boost me in the
rankings if I do hit a royal.
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This said, the key success factor to any tournament is speed. Without
a strong edge over the next guy, you can kiss your ass goodbye. (Ok,
so there's always going to be that 5 hand a minute player next to you
who not only hits a RF but 2 quads as well ;).
Dancer's strategy has "K.I.S.S." appeal. But heck, everyone complains
about how mind numbingly dull Jacks is. A little extra attention for
a small handful of strategy changes (I outlined 4 general ones) will
sharpen your wits for competition, no?
My 2+ cents take on this. However the tournament is approached, lets
hear from some winners come May!
- Harry
(PC problems temporarily resolved -- thanks to a swap in of a 10-yr
old graphics card salvaged from my previous PC. This serves as my
wake-up call to do some shopping, now that this beast is 5+ yrs itself. 