He plays the biggest games at the Palms so he has the most electronic
entries. It's not luck folks. Though I don't know his result he might
have lost enough to buy two Dodge Magnums. But it's possible he could
have won enough to buy two Dodge Magnums. When you play as high as he
does anything can happen.
Bob Dancer won a Dodge Magnum at the Palms
Well, it's late and I have nothing else better to do, so let's analyze
this play, because the Palms drawing promos are so overplayed it's
ridiculous. Let's assume that Dancer will sell the car, worth $18K,
and that he has an unlimited bankroll, and that there will be
approximately 200K tickets in the drum. Since they're giving away
about $20K, each ticket is worth about 10 cents.
The optimal way for a high roller to get tickets is to play $25 single
line NSUD, a game I assume Dancer plays at a very high level,
considering the 9,347 articles he's written about NSUD over the years.
I will assume he plays it exactly to 99.7287%. In practice he will
make a rare mistake, and he will probably tip minimally, so it's more
like 99.7075%. Because of the AX gift cheque promo, he can redeem his
points at .25%, as if it were cash back, so he's playing for a
whopping .17%, including the value of the tickets which are .1% for a
high limit player.
On the $25 Deuces, each 100 points gets you one ticket. So to have 10%
of the drum, or $2K in equity, you must put $2 million through the
machine. At about 800 tickets an hour, it would take 25 hours of play
to get to 20K tickets.
The only thing you can expect out of this is more drawing promos,
because as you can see the Palms makes money on them.
BTW, Bob doesn't always play that high. His bankroll I imagine, is
pretty healthy, but he's strictly looking for +EV situations, no
matter how thin it is. Note that their biggest regular VP player, a
gentleman whom I'll decline to name, passed on the car promo. I
imagine the Magnum was too declasse for him.
ยทยทยท
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
He plays the biggest games at the Palms so he has the most electronic
entries. It's not luck folks. Though I don't know his result he might
have lost enough to buy two Dodge Magnums. But it's possible he could
have won enough to buy two Dodge Magnums. When you play as high as he
does anything can happen.
The optimal way for a high roller to get tickets is to play $25 single
line NSUD, a game I assume Dancer plays at a very high level,
considering the 9,347 articles he's written about NSUD over the years.
I will assume he plays it exactly to 99.7287%. In practice he will
make a rare mistake, and he will probably tip minimally, so it's more
like 99.7075%. Because of the AX gift cheque promo, he can redeem his
points at .25%, as if it were cash back, so he's playing for a
whopping .17%, including the value of the tickets which are .1% for a
high limit player.
I made a mistake here, confusing the high limit free play deal with
the current AX gift cheque promo: Assuming tickets are worth .1%, the
EV calculation should read like this:
99.71+.25+.1=100.06.