vpFREE2 Forums

kickboyface · January 14, 2020, 5:48pm

{I post to the site via email and the results are often munged ... I'm going to try using a bit of html in this missive to make things better ... it may or may not work ... apologies if it doesn't ... I don't know what else I can do.} Hi Bob, Here's the theoretical deal. A new Las Vegas casino, "Exquisite Excess" (with suspicious ties to the old Vegas World) has an interesting "video poker" machine, "Big Fricken Diamonds." The way the machine works is you're dealt five cards and you get no draws. BFD has exactly one paying hand TdJdQdKdAd, an ascending royal flush in diamonds. No other hands, of any type, pay. Again, there is no draw -- so really, in the way you interact with it, it's more of a slot machine than a video poker machine. You either win with a royal flush, L to R in diamonds, or you lose. It costs $1 to play and the one, and only, prize for hitting the BFDs is a whopping $625,000,000. Fine points: You can load as many credits as you'd like in the machine. From the moment you hit the "draw/play" button it takes three seconds to deal/display, before you can engage the "draw/play" button again. There is only one BFD machine in the world. BFD is too far removed from other machines to be able to play anything else at the same time. It's not possible to set the machine to be playing automatically. You may already know this number off the top of your head, but in case you don't, I'll save you the work. The odds of being dealt BFDs are (1/52)(1/51)(1/50)(1/49)(1/48) or 1 in 311,875,200. Which is to say the expectation on BFD is slightly better than 2 (or, using different wording, better than 200% payback in the long run). My question to you, Bob, is this: would you play it? Why or why not? Although I'm most interested in hearing Bob Dancer's answer to this question, any and all are welcome to chime in in any way, shape or form. Thanks everyone, m.

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Mickey · January 14, 2020, 7:24pm

The frequency on a dealt royal is 649,740. In this spot I wouldn't care whether it was at advantage. The one big question I would ask myself is when can I expect a payday. Not anytime soon so I would pass on the play.

slowpoke2222 · January 14, 2020, 7:24pm

Let's not forget about variance which, in BFD, is far more important than EV.

If the variance is too high, it is not a reasonable play. Even if the return is 300%, 400% or 500%, the game is not a positive play because it will take far too long to obtain a reasonable prospect of hitting the jackpot.

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007 · January 14, 2020, 7:24pm

m h wrote:

{I post to the site via email and the results are often munged ... I'm going to try using a bit of html in this missive to make things better ... it may or may not work ... apologies if it doesn't ... I don't know what else I can do.} Hi Bob, Here's the theoretical deal. A new Las Vegas casino, "Exquisite Excess" (with suspicious ties to the old Vegas World) has an interesting "video poker" machine, "Big Fricken Diamonds." The way the machine works is you're dealt five cards and you get no draws. BFD has exactly one paying hand TdJdQdKdAd, an ascending royal flush in diamonds. No other hands, of any type, pay. Again, there is no draw -- so really, in the way you interact with it, it's more of a slot machine than a video poker machine. You either win with a royal flush, L to R in diamonds, or you lose. It costs $1 to play and the one, and only, prize for hitting the BFDs is a whopping $625,000,000. Fine points: You can load as many credits as you'd
like in the machine. From the moment you hit the "draw/play" button it takes three seconds to deal/display, before you can engage the "draw/play" button again. There is only one BFD machine in the world. BFD is too far removed from other machines to be able to play anything else at the same time. It's not possible to set the machine to be playing automatically. You may already know this number off the top of your head, but in case you don't, I'll save you the work. The odds of being dealt BFDs are (1/52)(1/51)(1/50)(1/49)(1/48) or 1 in 311,875,200. Which is to say the expectation on BFD is slightly better than 2 (or, using different wording, better than 200% payback in the long run). My question to you, Bob, is this: would you play it? Why or why not? Although I'm most interested in hearing Bob Dancer's answer to this question, any and all are welcome to chime in in any way, shape or form. Thanks everyone, m.

This is a job for the Kelly Criterion. I'll guess that it takes a
bankroll of tens of millions of dollars for the Kelly Criterion to be
positive.

007 · January 14, 2020, 7:24pm

This is a job for the Kelly Criterion. I'll guess that it takes a
bankroll of tens of millions of dollars for the Kelly Criterion to be
positive.

In an unusual display of overcoming laziness, I calculated the
bankroll at which the Kelly Criterion would show a break even long run
bankroll growth. Unless my spreadsheet didn't work right or unless I
made a mistake, it's roughly $250 million.

Bob_Dancer3 · January 14, 2020, 7:24pm

MC wrote: The frequency on a dealt royal is 649,740. In this spot I
wouldn't care whether it was at advantage. The one big question I would
ask myself is when can I expect a payday. Not anytime soon so I would
pass on the play.

Just because someone challenges me to answer a question doesn't mean I feel obligated to respond. But this time I will.

I think the problem was posed as a dealt one-way sequential in diamonds --- which would make it 480 times as big as the 649,740 figure cited. No matter. Not interested.

Playing 40 hours a week, it would have a "cycle" of more than 1,000 years. I may not live that long! At 800 hands per hour, it would cost $800 dollars per hour. At 2000 hours a year (I need a vacation occasionally), the cost would be $1,600,000 per year, minus the rather miniscule chance of hitting the jackpot. If I ran a little bad (how could you tell? You're losing EVERY hand!), it could take longer. Plus even if I hit it, who's to say whoever was funding the jackpot wouldn't go bankrupt and offer me, say, 10 cents on the dollar?

There would also be a cute little tax problem involved as well. There's a rule that says to be a professional gambler you have to earn a profit every so often. Once every 1,000 years isn't going to cut it.

Right now I am fortunate to have enough bankroll to last me for the duration (I think/hope) so long as I don't do anything stupid. Playing this BFD game would qualify as stupid. No thanx.

Bob

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Bob Dancer: Equity Question for You