vpFREE2 Forums

Bob Dancer Column - 9 MAY 2017

#1

Bob Dancer Column - 9 MAY 2017

Paying to Avoid Royal Flushes

https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/paying-avoid-royal-flushes

or

<a href="https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/paying-avoid-royal-flushes">
https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/paying-avoid-royal-flushes</a>

···

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

#2

Re: “Paying to Avoid Royal Flushes”

Excellent article. MaxEV strategy is a starting point but sometimes it pays to think outside of the box. You’re not just playing video poker in isolation, you’re playing the casino’s and the taxman’s metagame. A lot of people tip 1% on W2G’s, so that $4000 royal is already discounted to $3960. The biggest problem with W2G’s is that many casinos use them to take action (like eliminate mailers) against lucky players, such that W2G’s can easily have net negative expectation. Smart players take that into consideration and adopt their strategies to fit the meta situation.

http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/FAQ_S.htm

#3

Another way to look at this: drawing for the flush (holding AHTXsuited) instead of the royal (holding AHTsuited) is the superior play while you are not getting the royal. Over 1081 trials, AHTXsuited returns on average $6900 while AHTsuited returns on average just $2955 without royals. Now, on average, you would expect to get that royal, and that $4000 puts AHTsuited slightly ahead by $55, but there is no guarantee. And you should really think out the total costs of hitting a royal. If you tip $40, now you’re just talking a difference of $15. When you consider all the other ramifications of hitting a royal: delay in paying, tax problems, heat for getting approvals, lookie-loos, low lifes considering whether or not they should try to jump you later, identity fraud problems, and so on, going for the royal isn’t justified on a dollar basis. Maybe emotionally you really want that royal, maybe emotionally you think you can get more than your fair share of royals and you think the casino isn’t watching and likes to pay off W2G’s, but the dollars and the math is against it.