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Bob Dancer Column - 31 JAN 2017

Bob Dancer Column - 31 JAN 2017

Which is More Believable?

http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/which-is-more-believable

or

<a href="http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/which-is-more-believable">
http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/which-is-more-believable</a>

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I think Ginther used mathematical techniques that gave her a way better chance than anyone else had.

Here is one of the things Ginther knew about those scratchers. However, in Montana its with tickets. The game in the link is called Shake A Day. It’s one of the games in the Montana Lottery. It’s a much smaller scale game than what Ginther was playing but goes to show how to calculate the true cost of a scratcher/ticket.

https://www.montanalottery.com/en/view/treasureplay

https://www.montanalottery.com/en/view/treasureplay

View on www.montanalottery.com

Preview by Yahoo

You can see the cost to purchase a ticket is $3. The progressive meter starts at $1000.You can see the current amount in the progressive meter. I don’t know how much out of each ticket sold goes into the progressive meter but I’ve seen the meter go above $7000. On days where the meter gets up to about $4000 you can see the meter zinging as more and more people jump into the game because of the high number. There are lottery kiosks in the bars/casinos where people buy the tickets.

On the upper right you can see the odds of making a full house, four of a kind, and five of a kind (jackpot). You make a full house every 2.5 tickets and it pays $3. That’s a return of 40% (3/7.5). You make a four of a kind every 55.56 games and it pays $50. Thats a return of 30% (50/166.68). So the long term cost of a ticket is 3 X .30 = 90 cents. In effect its "buy 1 ticket get 2.3333 for free.

The frequency of the five of a kind (jackpot) is 5000. So the average cost to win the jackpot is $4500 (5000 X 90 cents). I’ve seen the meter on this game run well above $4500 many times.

I don’t play this game. My time is worth more on the machines. But I see other people play it when the number gets up. This one guy comes into the bar with a bucket. He fastens the bucket to the lottery kiosk then sticks bills into the machine. The tickets crank out into the bucket while he is sitting at the bar. Then he grabs the bucket and finds the winning tickets. He sticks the winning tickets back into the kiosk to get more tickets. Then hangs the bucket back on the machine, hits the printout button, and goes back to the bar.

—In vpF…@…com, <mickeycrimm@…> wrote :

I think Ginther used mathematical techniques that gave her a way better chance than anyone else had.

Mickey,

Read the Peter Mucha investigative articles. The first big win was pure luck. A lotto ticket purchased by her father. The 20 year annuity gave her the bankroll to buy mass quantities of high dollar scratch offs. Grand prizes are not exactly random. If there are 3 grand prizes they will be located in separate thirds of the total pack of tickets. The number of tickets left and the number of prizes left are published regularly so sometimes the remaining deck is rich in top prizes. She also had a friend helping her who also reported a large number of winning tickets.

Mr. Mazur did not due his basic research.