vpFREE2 Forums

Bob Dancer Column - 24 JAN 2017

Bob Dancer Column - 24 JAN 2017

Not What I Thought I Knew

http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/not-thought-knew

or

<a href="http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/not-thought-knew">
http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/not-thought-knew</a>

···

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

I do a lot of reading too. Mostly when I’m on keno plays. With video keno all the thinking is done before the play. There is no thinking on the play. So I usually have my windows phone out reading the news or the gambling forums, and I also have 70 ebooks on my kindle for windows phone. I read mostly non-fiction but also love historical fiction.

Amazon has a site called BookBub. I get an email every day from them with ebook offers for $3 or less. Today’s offer is Thomas Cromwell, $1.99, Water to the Angels, 99 cents, and Guadalcanal Diary, $1.99. They also have a selection of free ebooks.

Oh, and I’m in a market where there is no heat on gamblers reading at the machines.

Dancer wrote: “I am somebody who accepts that for most players most of the time, choosing the play with maximum expected value is the way to go. Virtually all long-term successful players use these strategies. There are theoreticians who devise special strategies which have different goals than max-EV, but I’ve never used such a strategy and do not intend
to.”

MaxEV is the basis, it’s easy to calculate, and it is hard to find an example where it’s way off base. It is optimal for maximum EV per hand, but there are other cases where it is less than optimal. Sometimes it makes sense to look at more than just a hand and to look instead at a bigger picture. The classic problem in video poker is the royal flush. A lot of people might think the royal flush is “just another hand”, but if you play in real world casinos for a while, you soon learn that it is not, it triggers other events, most of them not helpful, some requiring that you hire a lawyer. Now you could just say “screw it” and go ahead anyway and deal with the royal problems when you get them, but you could also be proactive and make some strategy changes that can reduce the negative aspects of hitting a royal. The classic example is min-cost-royal strategy which minimizes the cost of hitting a royal, commonly used on progressives but it finds use on non-progressives as well. If you want the dirt on min-cost-royal strategy see Kneeland’s “Secret World of Video Poker”. Another example, if you’re not sure of the impact of hitting a royal, is to maximize the return of the non-royal hands, max-non-royal-strategy. And of course, if you’re using the Kelly system, there is a Kelly optimal strategy. Classic Kelly examples would be to hold 22233 rather than draw to the deuces as in maxEV for FPDW, another would be to hold Aces Full (ex. AAA33) rather than draw to aces as in maxEV for FPDB.

NOTI, you repeatedly stress the adverse attention attracted by hitting RF’s as a reason to pursue min-cost RF strategy as a means to reduce RF frequency.

This overlooks another factor, that would be exacerbated by min-cost, that can also bring unwanted attention …

First, let me state at the outset that I predominantly play $1/$2 single line games. As such, I seldom rack up the $20k+ H/L jackpots that can single out higher stakes players for attention. That said, what has brought the greater heat to my play is the problem of being a consistent winner, year to year, at some casinos. Ultimately, this has a tendency to kill discretionary comps (travel, etc) that factor in significantly in my overall EV, and/or may actually reduce standard monthly offers.

I welcome added variance to the extent that I can stomach it. While I don’t savor a significant losing year at a casino, it’s inevitable at some place, at some time. It’s merely the function of variance, and such a year tends to cement in place a favorable reception to somewhat “extraordinary” requests that a “winning” player may not otherwise be favored with.

min-cost RF strategy brings with it a lower variance that will smooth out sessions and potentially see consistently positive results in any given year, with related adverse attention (assuming an appreciably attractive play edge). On the other hand, I’m not sold that the incremental impact of min-cost RF strategy on reducing jackpots will avert adverse attention sufficiently to offset this former factor.

—In vpF…@…com, <nightoftheiguana2000@…> wrote :

MaxEV is the basis, it’s easy to calculate, and it is hard to find an example where it’s way off base. It is optimal for maximum EV per hand, but there are other cases where it is less than optimal. Sometimes it makes sense to look at more than just a hand and to look instead at a bigger picture. The classic problem in video poker is the royal flush. A lot of people might think the royal flush is “just another hand”, but if you play in real world casinos for a while, you soon learn that it is not, it triggers other events, most of them not helpful, some requiring that you hire a lawyer. Now you could just say “screw it” and go ahead anyway and deal with the royal problems when you get them, but you could also be proactive and make some strategy changes that can reduce the negative aspects of hitting a royal. The classic example is min-cost-royal strategy which minimizes the cost of hitting a royal, commonly used on progressives but it finds use on non-progressives as well. If you want the dirt on min-cost-royal strategy see Kneeland’s “Secret World of Video Poker”.

vp_wiz wrote: “That said, what has brought the greater heat to my play is the problem of being a consistent winner, year to year, at some casinos. Ultimately, this has a tendency to kill discretionary comps (travel, etc) that factor in significantly in my overall EV, and/or may actually reduce standard monthly offers.”

Yeah, that’s different, I wouldn’t use min-cost-royal strategy in that case. I would give serious consideration to Kelly strategy, but maybe that’s just me. If they just track win/loss, it’s somewhat like a loss rebate promotion, so you want to increase variance (TDB, Royal Aces, Royal Deuces?), spread your play around, and maybe some of the same stuff we saw at Atlantic City when they had the big loss rebate promotion. In the end there’s always the trick the table games players use, refuse the tracking card.

Book bub also works with nook ebooks just have to go to the book USB site create an account select your preferences ( mystery, romance , history etc) and you get a Daily email with offers Many are $.99 and free

Another site is open library - this is for older rather than current books

···

On Jan 24, 2017, at 3:58 PM, mickeycr…@…com [vpFREE] <vpF…@…com> wrote:

I do a lot of reading too. Mostly when I’m on keno plays. With video keno all the thinking is done before the play. There is no thinking on the play. So I usually have my windows phone out reading the news or the gambling forums, and I also have 70 ebooks on my kindle for windows phone. I read mostly non-fiction but also love historical fiction.

Amazon has a site called BookBub. I get an email every day from them with ebook offers for $3 or less. Today’s offer is Thomas Cromwell, $1.99, Water to the Angels, 99 cents, and Guadalcanal Diary, $1.99. They also have a selection of free ebooks.

Oh, and I’m in a market where there is no heat on gamblers reading at the machines.

In Jacks, you might consider making the move where a three card royal draw beats a high pair. This increases the variance, reduces the royal cycle, at a small cost to EV per hand. This assumes you’re going to get no heat for hitting a royal and also your taxes are clear. The point I’d like to make is not to get boxed into thinking only about each hand, but instead to consider a larger picture, imagine how the play as a whole is going to play out and to make strategic changes that you think will benefit you in the long run. MaxEV isn’t a prison or a mandate, you can tweak it to get longer term goals. Consider the casino metagame beyond just the slot.