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Bob Dancer Column - 16 SEP 2016

#1

Bob Dancer Column - 16 SEP 2016

Not Very Well Thought Out

http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/not-well-thought

or

<a href="http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/not-well-thought">
http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/not-well-thought</a>

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#2

An article that I agree with, and without reservations.

Regards
A.P.

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________________________________
From: "vpFREE3355 vpfree3355@gmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, September 13, 2016 1:09 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer Column - 16 SEP 2016

Bob Dancer Column - 16 SEP 2016

Not Very Well Thought Out

http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/not-well-thought

or

<a href="http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/not-well-thought">
http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/not-well-thought</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
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#3

Casinos really shouldn't be sending a lot of promotional dollars to penny players, but they do, it's probably the biggest "advantage play" going on right now. Casinos think the penny players are playing the tightest machines, which is true, but by law they can't be tighter than 15% hold, assuming gaming control is checking. The problem is penny players put in hardly any coin in, maybe a dollar per hour, and 15% of a dollar is 15 cents. If the casinos give the penny players more than that, it's an overlay ("advantage play") for the players. Just the power bill alone on a modern slot is probably over that.

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#4

That hasn't been my observation. Sure, many play minimum bet, but even that is 30 to 60 cents, much more than a dollar an hour. I am confused as to where you might be seeing penny players playing a dollar an hour coin-in.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote :

  The problem is penny players put in hardly any coin in, maybe a dollar per hour, and 15% of a dollar is 15 cents.

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#5

I think smaller casinos might be more profitable. The big ones have to send mailers just so the place won't seem empty.

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#6

You must see different penny players than I do. Sure, there is a small group that will play a low amount slowly but I've many players who will play 100 or 300 or 600 credits on a penny machine.

Let's look at the same loss level for a dollar NSUD player and a penny slot player. Dollar NSUD at 800 hph is $4000 coin in and $9.80 in expected loss from the game. A penny player at $0.50 per hand and 125 spins per hour is $62.50 coin in and an expected loss of $9.37 on the game.

There are many, many penny players who play much more than $0.50 per hand.

What machines have increased the most in the last ten years, penny slots or dollar video poker?

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#7

While there may be a time element in the marketing formula to determine your worth to the casino everything comes down to machine theoretical and amount of coin-in to determine your marketing value. Whether that's Average Daily Theoretical, Market Daily Value, Earnings Potential, or whatever. If you have a low market value you won't get much back in the mail. That said, some casinos "might" send you some discounted or free room offers simply for being a new customer, but the first time you use them and give virtually no play you can bet your offers will not be repeated. This is why if you're going to give a casino a heavy play the best day to do it is right when you sign up for your player card. You'll seldom ever have a higher marketing profile than on that day. This may be what is creating the illusion that a penny player giving very light action, even on a high theo machine, is somehow getting the best of the casino. Perhaps on a percentage basis they are, but in terms of actual value it's costing the casino almost nothing. The biggest drain of a penny player such as what you describe is via free drinks and electricity....not from anything they might get back of value from marketing.

In the end it still comes down to doing the things that maximize your marketing profile according to the computer algorithms of that casino. Those things are fairly well known...concentrating your play into as few days as possible and not doing anything to extend or create a trip on non-play days are the two biggies.

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#8

An impressive, thoroughly common-sense response ... appreciated :slight_smile:

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <vpbp2002@...> wrote :

While there may be a time element in the marketing formula to determine your worth to the casino everything comes down to machine theoretical and amount of coin-in to determine your marketing value. Whether that's Average Daily Theoretical, Market Daily Value, Earnings Potential, or whatever. If you have a low market value you won't get much back in the mail. That said, some casinos "might" send you some discounted or free room offers simply for being a new customer, but the first time you use them and give virtually no play you can bet your offers will not be repeated. This is why if you're going to give a casino a heavy play the best day to do it is right when you sign up for your player card. You'll seldom ever have a higher marketing profile than on that day. This may be what is creating the illusion that a penny player giving very light action, even on a high theo machine, is somehow getting the best of the casino. Perhaps on a percentage basis they are, but in terms of actual value it's costing the casino almost nothing. The biggest drain of a penny player such as what you describe is via free drinks and electricity....not from anything they might get back of value from marketing.

In the end it still comes down to doing the things that maximize your marketing profile according to the computer algorithms of that casino. Those things are fairly well known...concentrating your play into as few days as possible and not doing anything to extend or create a trip on non-play days are the two biggies.

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#9

BBT wrote: "That hasn't been my observation. Sure, many play minimum bet, but even that is 30 to 60 cents, much more than a dollar an hour. I am confused as to where you might be seeing penny players playing a dollar an hour coin-in."

You haven't seen penny machines with a one penny minimum bet? 100 spins per hour (somewhat fast on a penny slot, the bonus spins take up a lot of time and produce zero coin in) times one penny per spin is one dollar per hour coin in.

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#10

You usually have to play a minimum of $.30 to cover all the lines and to get get the bonus and spins.

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On Sep 15, 2016, at 4:40 PM, nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

BBT wrote: "That hasn't been my observation. Sure, many play minimum bet, but even that is 30 to 60 cents, much more than a dollar an hour. I am confused as to where you might be seeing penny players playing a dollar an hour coin-in."

You haven't seen penny machines with a one penny minimum bet? 100 spins per hour (somewhat fast on a penny slot, the bonus spins take up a lot of time and produce zero coin in) times one penny per spin is one dollar per hour coin in.

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#11

Johnny Zee wrote: "Let's look at the same loss level for a dollar NSUD player and a penny slot player. Dollar NSUD at 800 hph is $4000 coin in and $9.80 in expected loss from the game. A penny player at $0.50 per hand and 125 spins per hour is $62.50 coin in and an expected loss of $9.37 on the game."

I think you're on the right track, what you want to do is look at cost per hour, then compare that to the incentives you get. Some issues with the example you give: most players can't play NSU to that level, I think IGT estimates the average hold is about a percent, and obviously the penny player is going to get much better offers while the NSU player can get no mailed and then 86'd the first time they hit a taxable.

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#12