Palms Agrees to Replace High Limit NSU
Deuces Wild --- At a Price
http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0816.html
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Memo For Jim Hughes:
Bob is simply hallucinating when he tells you the drawing tickets are
worth .3-.5%. This would mean the drawing tickets are worth 30 to 50
cents, and that's not even close.
Let's do the math. When Bob and the other high limit pros were playing
the drawing promo, there would be, on average, 200K tickets* in the
drum. For a drawing which gave away 10K + 5K equity in a new Hummer,
each ticket is worth a whopping 7.5 cents. Since it takes $100 coin in
on the higher limit NSUD machines to receive one ticket, the initial
value in EV terms is .075%. When you take into account you can only
win once, and when someone else have a bunch of tickets wins, that
means less tickets in the drum, and the occasional no show, the value
goes up to maybe .125%. When it was $50 coin in a ticket, the play
made a little more sense, particularly if you like the amenities Palms
has to offer (Rain, Nine, Little Buddha, Garduno's). But here, I think
you're gambling to break even. Actually not even even, if you consider
the occasional mistake and tip costs.
This is the most overplayed promo in town, and I just don't get why so
many pros are playing it. At least one pro was doing it the right
way-playing his card, his wife's card and his girlfriend's (!) card. I
have heard of players coming in with anywhere between 6K and 10K
tickets and getting shut out. But, when you consider that they're
probably 50% at best to hit, it makes you wonder what these guys were
thinking.
I have tossed my fair share of bricks at slot management at the Palms.
Here's one more. To downgrade the machines without doing the math on
this, and listening to the squawking of a bunch of 117yo ladies who
have maybe 50 cents equity in the drawing if they're lucky is
irresponsible. Hey, you even fooled Dancer. I hear how the machines
were downgraded a little differently than the "official" story,
namely, the high limit players did well on the machines the last week
of the Hummer promo, with at least one 100K check being written out.
Now maybe you understand how ill thought out it was to exclude the
10-7 from the promotions. You might want to consider how the foremost
VP writer considers this to be a great play. Maybe 18 months ago, it
was marginal-you got double tickets than you do today and less people
were playing it, and you were going to be playing there anyway. But
today, it's ridiculous to even consider it "a play".
* watch the drum being electronically mixed-it will tell you how many
tickets, in terms of thousands are in the drum before the computer
starts picking numbers. While the real number was closer to 190-195K
per drawing, the 200K number is used for clarity.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:
Palms Agrees to Replace High Limit NSU
Deuces Wild --- At a Pricehttp://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2005/0816.html
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paladin415x wrote:
Maybe 18 months ago, it was marginal-you got double tickets than you
do today and less people were playing it, and you were going to be
playing there anyway. But today, it's ridiculous to even consider it
"a play".
Maybe Bob is just playing into the psychosis of Palms' management?
It's pretty clear that he likes the place just for it's own sake. If,
with the mailers, he can rationalize it as a .001%+ positive play, it
meets his criteria and he can satisfy himself that it's a "good" play.
So, assuming that your goal is to see strong paytables restored, is
the best tactic to tell them that they're full of s*it and haven't a
clue, or to tell them what a prudent thing they did but there's a
better way to go about it?
- H.