vpFREE2 Forums

Bob Dancer Article on Pros

A recent article talked about the tougher environment for VP pros,
but I have to wonder how any pro (no matter how good)can make a
decent living on just playing VP. At the quarter level you cannot
pump enough money through. Let's say you put 2 million dollars thru
FPDW. Your expected return is $14,400 plus cashback. That is not
much to live on even if all your meals are comped. At the dollar
level the best return is 10/7 DB at 1.0017 and even with 8 million
dollars your expected return is only $13,600 plus cashback.

I know better plays turn up, like progressives and promotions, but
it seems unlikely that you can find such plays for 40 hours/week 52
weeks per year. The pro has to compete with other pros as well as
the skilled part-time advantage players for these high EV plays.

Does anyone really give enough cashback to make higher denom plays
on negative games like 9/6 Jacks that good? The higher the denom
the bigger that bankroll must be as well.

Is the pro player an extinct species? If not there must be a lot of
those special plays that no one wants to share with this group.

Chris

kcace1024 wrote:

A recent article talked about the tougher environment for VP pros,
but I have to wonder how any pro (no matter how good)can make a
decent living on just playing VP. At the quarter level you cannot
pump enough money through. Let's say you put 2 million dollars thru
FPDW. Your expected return is $14,400 plus cashback. That is not
much to live on even if all your meals are comped.

You're reasonably on target. A few things to consider (speaking
largely from indirect info):

$10/hr. FPDW (incl. cb) along with other plays of $10-$20/hr. that pop
up with a decent frequency (multiple points, e.g.) are basic
maintenance plays.

Pros are on a constant prowl for the infrequent $40+/hr. (and the VERY
infrequent $100+/hr.) plays that really top things off. These plays
are critical to a good year and pros are understandably very sensitive
when info is broadcast. At the $40/hr. level some plays can be
sustained for a very long time as long as they're not overplayed and
such plays arise with a respectable frequency.

Most "pros" aren't going to bring home money to brag about. But even
$25K-30K is a respectable income if the lion's share should fly under
the tax radar (of course, perhaps contrary to my expectation, this
bunch may be a diligent group of taxpayers).

Keep in mind that I sense the greatest incentive to pros is that other
careers are less appealing and they very much enjoy the play plus the
freedom to set their own work terms.

The value of food and beverage comps isn't to be underestimated (I
shudder at our 2-person grocery bill these days).

- Harry

And don't forget the software, books, consultations, classes, speaking
engagements, pay-for web sites, etc, that keep a couple or three of
our favorite pros in business.

Rick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...> wrote:

kcace1024 wrote:
> A recent article talked about the tougher environment for VP pros,
> but I have to wonder how any pro (no matter how good)can make a
> decent living on just playing VP. At the quarter level you cannot
> pump enough money through. Let's say you put 2 million dollars thru
> FPDW. Your expected return is $14,400 plus cashback. That is not
> much to live on even if all your meals are comped.

You're reasonably on target. A few things to consider (speaking
largely from indirect info):

$10/hr. FPDW (incl. cb) along with other plays of $10-$20/hr. that pop
up with a decent frequency (multiple points, e.g.) are basic
maintenance plays.

Pros are on a constant prowl for the infrequent $40+/hr. (and the VERY
infrequent $100+/hr.) plays that really top things off. These plays
are critical to a good year and pros are understandably very sensitive
when info is broadcast. At the $40/hr. level some plays can be
sustained for a very long time as long as they're not overplayed and
such plays arise with a respectable frequency.

Most "pros" aren't going to bring home money to brag about. But even
$25K-30K is a respectable income if the lion's share should fly under
the tax radar (of course, perhaps contrary to my expectation, this
bunch may be a diligent group of taxpayers).

Keep in mind that I sense the greatest incentive to pros is that other
careers are less appealing and they very much enjoy the play plus the
freedom to set their own work terms.

The value of food and beverage comps isn't to be underestimated (I
shudder at our 2-person grocery bill these days).

- Harry

Does anyone really give enough cashback to make higher denom plays on negative games like 9/6 Jacks that good?

Yup. The X-factor is bounceback mailings for locals, which, in Vegas, have mushroomed over the last couple of years. I only play about 10 hours a week (mostly single-line dollars), and am by no means consider myself any sort of "VP pro", but my monthly mailings typically total about $1500 a month. I can only imagine what sort of mailings pros manufacture. The downside is in all the miles and driving time spent collecting these - calculating your true EV/hour gets fuzzy when you try to factor in traffic jams.

Is the pro player an extinct species?

Endangered species is probably more like it. I think most "pros" merely supplement their incomes with VP, as opposed living solely off their winnings.

John

$1500 a month in mailings??

Yesterday, I got two $15 cash coupons in the mail from
Harrah's Prairie Band and I was like, "Woo hoo!!"
(Most of the coupons I get from HPB are $5-$7, but I
haven't been there in a while and I guess they're
trying to entice me back).

carlos

>
> Does anyone really give enough cashback to make
higher denom plays
> on negative games like 9/6 Jacks that good?

Yup. The X-factor is bounceback mailings for locals,
which, in Vegas,
have mushroomed over the last couple of years. I
only play about 10
hours a week (mostly single-line dollars), and am by
no means consider
myself any sort of "VP pro", but my monthly mailings
typically total
about $1500 a month. I can only imagine what sort of
mailings pros
manufacture. The downside is in all the miles and
driving time spent
collecting these - calculating your true EV/hour
gets fuzzy when you try
to factor in traffic jams.

>
> Is the pro player an extinct species?

Endangered species is probably more like it. I think
most "pros" merely
supplement their incomes with VP, as opposed living
solely off their
winnings.

John

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Is the pro player an extinct species? If not there must be a lot

of

those special plays that no one wants to share with this group.

most have moved on to texas hold'em, in the casinos and online

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" <cy4873@h...> wrote:

>
> Does anyone really give enough cashback to make higher denom

plays

> on negative games like 9/6 Jacks that good?

Yup. The X-factor is bounceback mailings for locals, which, in

Vegas,

have mushroomed over the last couple of years. I only play about

10

hours a week (mostly single-line dollars), and am by no means

consider

myself any sort of "VP pro", but my monthly mailings typically

total

about $1500 a month. I can only imagine what sort of mailings pros
manufacture. The downside is in all the miles and driving time

spent

collecting these - calculating your true EV/hour gets fuzzy when

you try

to factor in traffic jams.

John,

Thanks for the info! Correct me if I am way off, but I figure at 40
hours per month you might be putting $150,000 thru (750 hands/hr).
If this is close then your bounceback is about 1% of your coin in!
Playing 9/6 JOB that still generates an expected profit of $750 a
month.

Let's see, if I get a local PO BOX and fly in once a month to play
40 hours over a long weekend I could make $500 a month because the
airfare is only $200 - $250. Would they give someone pretending to
be a "local" a free room for several days. Can you tell me which
casinos give this 1% bounceback.

Chris

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, John Kelly <jwkelly@f...> wrote:

<<And don't forget the software, books, consultations, classes, speaking
engagements, pay-for web sites, etc, that keep a couple or three of
our favorite pros in business.>>

Not sure if I am being referred to here, but perhaps I could shed some light on the subject. Brad and I were comfortably retired when we started playing VP. We would not have retired if we needed to be "in business" to support ourselves during retirement. We had pensions and savings for a comfortable retirement life, nothing fancy, but very adequate. I know a lot of other skilled players who were/are in similar circumstances.

However, some of us are over-achievers. Getting free vacations from the casinos was just so much fun that we started collecting other free things, including money. It became a "game." Brad refers to it as playing for "matchsticks."

I know VERY FEW VP pros that earn ALL their income from gambling. Most skilled gamblers have good money-management skills in other areas too and therefore have savings, investments, rental property, small businesses, etc. even if they don't have a "real" job.

I do know a lot of skilled gamblers, like us, who don't consider themselves "pros," but are serious about keeping a high skill level even for a "hobby." We just find it more fun, over the long term, to win than to lose - even if we don't "need" the money. The money we make from VP and our assorted connected "businesses" allows us to live a very luxurious, exciting life with almost no outlay of our own money. Therefore, we can be very generous to our families, friends, and those we meet who are in need.

And for those experts who do "need" or choose to earn money writing, teaching, producing software, etc. to help us all be better gamblers - my hearty thanx to them that they chose this area of endeavor. I owe much to them for their help down through the years, just as I am glad there were teachers who educated me for years, doctors to help me when I am sick, pilots to fly me when I want to go visit my grandchildren. I never expected any of these to work for nothing.

···

________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - Go to http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  for VP software and strategy cards and for the
  Frugal series of books.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@f...>
wrote:

Not sure if I am being referred to here, but perhaps I could shed

some light on the subject. Brad and I were comfortably retired when
we started playing VP. We would not have retired if we needed to
be "in business" to support ourselves during retirement. We had
pensions and savings for a comfortable retirement life, nothing
fancy, but very adequate. I know a lot of other skilled players who
were/are in similar circumstances.

However, some of us are over-achievers. Getting free vacations

from the casinos was just so much fun that we started collecting
other free things, including money. It became a "game." Brad
refers to it as playing for "matchsticks."

I know VERY FEW VP pros that earn ALL their income from gambling.

Most skilled gamblers have good money-management skills in other
areas too and therefore have savings, investments, rental property,
small businesses, etc. even if they don't have a "real" job.

I do know a lot of skilled gamblers, like us, who don't consider

themselves "pros," but are serious about keeping a high skill level
even for a "hobby." We just find it more fun, over the long term,
to win than to lose - even if we don't "need" the money. The money
we make from VP and our assorted connected "businesses" allows us to
live a very luxurious, exciting life with almost no outlay of our
own money. Therefore, we can be very generous to our families,
friends, and those we meet who are in need.

And for those experts who do "need" or choose to earn money

writing, teaching, producing software, etc. to help us all be better
gamblers - my hearty thanx to them that they chose this area of
endeavor. I owe much to them for their help down through the years,
just as I am glad there were teachers who educated me for years,
doctors to help me when I am sick, pilots to fly me when I want to
go visit my grandchildren. I never expected any of these to work
for nothing.

Jean,

I am a big fan of your writing. I consider you to be a voice of
reason and common sense. I have also just started reading your
latest book. I did not consider you to be a pro in the context of
the Bob Dancer article. I believe Rick extended my original post
beyond just playing VP, but my comment was limited to just
generating income from play and nothing else. You are always very
responsible in emphasizing the risks that even an "advantage" player
must face. I feel that many other writers are not as responsible as
you and gloss over the reality and the risks.

I am naturally skeptical of most gambling writers. I feel that the
Dancer article is somewhat misleading because it presents the
possibility of being a vp pro if you are a hard worker, intelligent,
disciplined, etc. (Just the opposite of many gamblers!) I question
whether someone can come into Vegas with a few thousand dollar
bankroll and make a living off of VP like Bob Dancer did. That
opportunity has passed along with bonus slots and blackjack. Is
Texas Hold Em the current opportunity as some suggest? I see that
as a very difficult possibility, but still possible.

I see VP as an exciting and profitable hobby for the intelligent and
disciplined gambler. It is also a good choice for the somewhat lazy
gambler who just wants to lose less than most of the other gamblers.

Chris

<<I see VP as an exciting and profitable hobby for the intelligent and
disciplined gambler. It is also a good choice for the somewhat lazy
gambler who just wants to lose less than most of the other gamblers.>>

Well said!!!!!

···

________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - Go to http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  for VP software and strategy cards and for the
  Frugal series of books.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

John,

Thanks for the info! Correct me if I am way off, but I figure at 40 hours per month you might be putting $150,000 thru (750 hands/hr).

Right.

If this is close then your bounceback is about 1% of your coin in!

Yup.

Let's see, if I get a local PO BOX and fly in once a month to play 40 hours over a long weekend I could make $500 a month because the airfare is only $200 - $250.

One problem: bounceback coupons are usually restricted to certain days of the week when they can be redeemed...which are usually weekdays. Also, factor in your rental car costa and bear in mind that much of this haul is collected in $20-$25 increments. Collecting bounceback is a major hassel unless you were headed near that casino in the first place.

   Can you tell me which

casinos give this 1% bounceback.

I'm not gonna go into detail, as the means of maximizing bounceback at many casinos is complicated and uncertain (many great plays keep us scratching our heads at how the hell they figure who gets mailed what). Also, I fear that publicizing the very best of these plays will kill them. That said, they following is a list of casinos of which I am aware that cough up at least 0.4% bounceback (some yield a MUCH higher %) to LV locals:

Nevada Palace
Cannery
Casino Montelago
Main Street Station
Rampart
Arizona Charlies
Stratosphere
Palms
MGM Grand
NYNY
Venetian
Sam's Town
Orleans
Hard Rock
Tuscany
Ellis Island
Westin
LV Hilton
All Fiestas and Stations (on machines where $1=1point)

There are others, I'm sure.

John

A very talented, disciplined person can make a lot of
money playing live poker in casinos and/or online.

A talented, disciplined person can make a good living
playing live poker in casinos and/or online.

vpFREE Administrator

···

On 24 Nov 2004 at 3:29, kcace1024 wrote:

... I question whether someone can come into Vegas
with a few thousand dollar bankroll and make a living
off of VP like Bob Dancer did. That opportunity has
passed along with bonus slots and blackjack. Is Texas
Hold Em the current opportunity as some suggest? ...

> John,
>
> Thanks for the info! Correct me if I am way off, but I figure

at 40

> hours per month you might be putting $150,000 thru (750

hands/hr).

Right.

> If this is close then your bounceback is about 1% of your coin

in!

Yup.

>
> Let's see, if I get a local PO BOX and fly in once a month to

play

> 40 hours over a long weekend I could make $500 a month because

the

> airfare is only $200 - $250.

One problem: bounceback coupons are usually restricted to certain

days

of the week when they can be redeemed...which are usually

weekdays.

Also, factor in your rental car costa and bear in mind that much

of this

haul is collected in $20-$25 increments. Collecting bounceback is

a

major hassel unless you were headed near that casino in the first

place.

   Can you tell me which
> casinos give this 1% bounceback.

I'm not gonna go into detail, as the means of maximizing

bounceback at

many casinos is complicated and uncertain (many great plays keep

us

scratching our heads at how the hell they figure who gets mailed

what).

Also, I fear that publicizing the very best of these plays will

kill

them. That said, they following is a list of casinos of which I am

aware

that cough up at least 0.4% bounceback (some yield a MUCH higher

%) to

LV locals:

John,

Thanks for a very interesting post! Many of the casinos obviously
compete pretty hard for the locals money.

Chris

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, John Kelly <jwkelly@f...> wrote:

Your statement is true, but only if the talented, disciplined player
can find enough less talented, less disciplined players willing to
compete against him. Does the current Hold Em fad and opportunity
allow someone to just switch from VP to low limit live poker and
make a living? I believe the skills required to be a high level
poker player are much more difficult to master than VP skills. The
skills to come out ahead at low limit Hold Em are not that
difficult, but I believe the level of skill needed to win rises
rapidly with the size of the bets.

The skill level of the players normally increases as the betting
limits increase with high stakes no limit as the top of the food
chain. Can you estimate what betting level a person must be
successful at to make a good living. For the sake of an example
lets say $30 an hour is a decent living.

Chris

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:

On 24 Nov 2004 at 3:29, kcace1024 wrote:

> ... I question whether someone can come into Vegas
> with a few thousand dollar bankroll and make a living
> off of VP like Bob Dancer did. That opportunity has
> passed along with bonus slots and blackjack. Is Texas
> Hold Em the current opportunity as some suggest? ...

A very talented, disciplined person can make a lot of
money playing live poker in casinos and/or online.

A talented, disciplined person can make a good living
playing live poker in casinos and/or online.

vpFREE Administrator

The accepted rule of thumb for limit poker is that the BEST players
will make 1 1/2 to 2 "big bets" per hour. Generally about 1/2 a big
bet per hour is lost to "overhead", i.e. rake, tokes, etc. So figure
a $10-20 expert player could clear $20-30 an hour, maximum.

For no-limit play a very rough rule of thumb is to compare buy-ins
and/or minimum bet sizes with the corresponding limit game. A $100
buyin nolimit game with $2 and $5 blinds will generally play
somewhere between a $5-10 and a $10-20 game. But if everybody buys
in for $500, and there's four or more people seeing every flop, the
game could be worth $50 or more per hour to a skilled pro (albeit
with some ghastly fluctuations).

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" <cy4873@h...> wrote:

The skill level of the players normally increases as the betting
limits increase with high stakes no limit as the top of the food
chain. Can you estimate what betting level a person must be
successful at to make a good living. For the sake of an example
lets say $30 an hour is a decent living.

Chris

A rental car isn't needed to access any of the csinos in vegas. Use the excellent CAT service from the airport that connects with routes all over town.

···

From: John Kelly <jwkelly@flash.net>
Reply-To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer Article on Pros
Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 09:35:26 -0800

> John,
>
> Thanks for the info! Correct me if I am way off, but I figure at 40
> hours per month you might be putting $150,000 thru (750 hands/hr).

Right.

> If this is close then your bounceback is about 1% of your coin in!

Yup.

>
> Let's see, if I get a local PO BOX and fly in once a month to play
> 40 hours over a long weekend I could make $500 a month because the
> airfare is only $200 - $250.

One problem: bounceback coupons are usually restricted to certain days
of the week when they can be redeemed...which are usually weekdays.
Also, factor in your rental car costa and bear in mind that much of this
haul is collected in $20-$25 increments. Collecting bounceback is a
major hassel unless you were headed near that casino in the first place.

   Can you tell me which
> casinos give this 1% bounceback.

I'm not gonna go into detail, as the means of maximizing bounceback at
many casinos is complicated and uncertain (many great plays keep us
scratching our heads at how the hell they figure who gets mailed what).
Also, I fear that publicizing the very best of these plays will kill
them. That said, they following is a list of casinos of which I am aware
that cough up at least 0.4% bounceback (some yield a MUCH higher %) to
LV locals:

Nevada Palace
Cannery
Casino Montelago
Main Street Station
Rampart
Arizona Charlies
Stratosphere
Palms
MGM Grand
NYNY
Venetian
Sam's Town
Orleans
Hard Rock
Tuscany
Ellis Island
Westin
LV Hilton
All Fiestas and Stations (on machines where $1=1point)

There are others, I'm sure.

John

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pesach kremen" <royalflush2222@h...>
wrote:

Use the excellent CAT service from the airport that connects with
routes all over town.

I admit that I have only a very narrow view of the CAT. My only
view of it is on the strip, between the Tropicana and the Riviera.
The lines at most bus stops seem to be long, a lot of the time. The
busses, when they come, seem to be crowded, most of the time. I
have heard a lot of grumbling about the service as I walk by a bus
stop.

With these views, I have never even been tempted to try the CAT.
Maybe I should re-think and that things are not as bad as they
appear?

.....bl

pesach kremen wrote:

A rental car isn't needed to access any of the csinos in vegas. Use the excellent CAT service from the airport that connects with routes all over town.

Well, OK, technically correct. But in order to make a local's 8-casino "freeplay run" in a reasonable amount of time, you kind of need a car.

I figure my freeplay runs cost me about 3 hours a week, about half of which is spent marching thru casinos, and half stuck in traffic.

John

I figure my freeplay runs cost me about 3 hours a week,

John

Just to go in, play and go out, maybe, but this is a very misleading

statement. In order to keep that freeplay coming you need to be spending
MUCH more time than that!

Scot

···

-----Original Message-----
From: John Kelly [mailto:jwke…@…net]
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2004 11:25 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer Article on Pros

pesach kremen wrote:
> A rental car isn't needed to access any of the csinos in vegas.

Use the

> excellent CAT service from the airport that connects with routes

all over

> town.

Well, OK, technically correct. But in order to make a local's 8-

casino

"freeplay run" in a reasonable amount of time, you kind of need a

car.

I figure my freeplay runs cost me about 3 hours a week, about half

of

which is spent marching thru casinos, and half stuck in traffic.

John

My freeplay orbit is Palms--GVR---Fiesta Henderson. It requires
careful planning to avoid the choke points and regularly scheduled
traffic jams; for example, to approach FH from the west is to invite
trouble, since there is exactly ONE way to get there---the non-
Beltway connector that has been under construction since 1887 (and
won't be finished soon). Trying to go to the Palms after 2 PM,
especially on a weekend, risks encountering the screaming hordes
pouring in from L.A., driving over each other, exchanging gunfire,
etc. in their frantic efforts to get to the tables. I can get to
Green Valley ranch easily enough as long as I avoid the periods of
traffic jams on the beltway (6 AM to midnight, Monday thru Sunday).

I think that we need to be more adequately rewarded for our hard
work in getting to the casinos. Crummy ol' free play isn't really
enough IMHO. We may very well arrive hungry; a lunch comp would be
in order. We may very well arrive tense and tired; a complimentary
Swedish massage at the spa would be very nice. Oh, and valet should
wash our car and refill our gas tank.

In addition, we are entitled to Butt Credit every time we enter the
casino, regardless of what we plan to do there. Let me explain:
Stations recently gave away pumpkin/apple pies to everyone in the
slot club; just show up with your little postcard mailer thingy on
the appropriate day and get your pie. Well, these were good-sized
pies (10-inch) and I would guess that wholesale, they would cost
about $3 each. Since the only benefit accruing to the casino is to
get people's butts in the door, one must assume the value per butt
(VPB) is at least $3 (or the promo wouldn't be worth doing). This,
of course, reflects the average of all the people who grab the pie
and walk out, all the way up to poor Cousin Fred who didn't make it
past the crap tables and blew his entire IRA. Therefore: in a
competitive market, it's worth $3 to a given casino to have you walk
through THEIR doors, as opposed to someone else's.

We are shorting ourselves by entering the casinos for free! It's
clear from the pie calculation that we bestow $3 of VPB every time
we grace them with our presence. Therefore I suggest we demand
reverse admission; pay us $3 at the door as we enter. In return we
would promise to spend at least five minutes inside the casino (we
could swipe our cards or something so people couldn't merely exit
and reenter through the revolving door in order to collect and re-
collect the VPB).

I can envision a bidding war as those casinos that offered more and
more VPB would be the ones that received the patronage. I think
the "Platinum Butt" package of a crisp $20 bill, a complimentary
buffet lunch or dinner, a spa treatment of the player's choice, and
maybe a pair of movie tickets, would be about right.

We can extend this concept to grocery stores, fast-food outlets,
chain department stores, gas stations, and any service industry
where there are several competing entities offering an essentially
similar product. So join us! Take back control of your consumer
dollars! Demand your VPB payments today!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, John Kelly <jwkelly@f...> wrote: