In light of recent concerns about how casinos are reacting to
strong VP players, I'll ask a question I have wondered before but
never had answered satisfactorily. Can a casino electronically
monitor an individuals play to determine just how strong a player
he/she is? Whether he/she is maximizing EV? It seems obvious that
it is technologically possible, but do they? I'd be happy to hear
any solid information. If no solid information is available, how
about some amusing conspiracy theories? 
Big Brother
Someone I've known for a while told me that he was interested in learning as
much as he could about vp, so I strongly suggested that he invest in
winpoker software. This was before I was aware of frugalvp or other
software that had the same kinds of features, so no hard feelings, I hope,
among a few who are involved with competing products.
Anyway, a month or so ago he told me that he was making progress, but that
things were going a little slower then he had hoped they would. He was
anxious to take his knowledge to the casino, and I guess he was a little
frustrated that he wasn't an expert quite yet.
Then tonight, he called to say that a window had popped up on his winpoker
that he had never seen before. It said,
STRONGLY SUGGEST YOU TAKE UP ANOTHER GAME
Under that was a list of other casino games, all barely visable, except for
Bingo and Keno, which were highlighted.
He asked me if I was familiar with this window, and I told him no, but
obviously it's an indication that he had mastered the various games, and
that winpoker had nothing more to offer him. I told him he probably should
follow the advice in the window, and now attempt to master Bingo or Keno
next.
Question: did I give him the proper advice? Any thoughts?
lb
Can a casino electronically
monitor an individuals play to determine just how strong a player
he/she is? Whether he/she is maximizing EV? It seems obvious that
it is technologically possible, but do they? I'd be happy to hear
any solid information. <<
As I recall, casinos assume roughly a 5% profit on all vp players (someone
please supply the correct percentage if that's off by too much). Obviously
they keep track of coin-in, unless you don't use a card. And obviously they
know who is taking advantage of bonuses. Based on that, they may also be
assuming that heavy coin in and bonuses are evidence of expertise. I don't
believe they're monitoring a player's ability in any other ways. In general
they're after the pool of players, not individuals, although there are
apparently some major exceptions.
lb
···
----- Original Message -----
From: <cmayhem@aol.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, January 14, 2003 8:59 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Big Brother
In light of recent concerns about how casinos are reacting to
strong VP players, I'll ask a question I have wondered before but
never had answered satisfactorily. Can a casino electronically
monitor an individuals play to determine just how strong a player
he/she is? Whether he/she is maximizing EV? It seems obvious that
it is technologically possible, but do they? I'd be happy to hear
any solid information. If no solid information is available, how
about some amusing conspiracy theories?vpFREE Home Page:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREEvpFREE Links:
http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Links.htmlYour use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
In the January 2003 issue of Strictly Slots on page 24, Anthony
Curtis has an article on 2003 thoughts. One of the paragraphs "Goose
Cooked" tells how easy it would be for "skill targeting software" to
be added to machines.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "cmayhem2001 <cmayhem@a...>"
<cmayhem@a...> wrote:
···
In light of recent concerns about how casinos are reacting to
strong VP players, I'll ask a question I have wondered before but
Paul wrote:
In the January 2003 issue of Strictly Slots on page 24, Anthony
Curtis has an article on 2003 thoughts. One of the paragraphs "Goose
Cooked" tells how easy it would be for "skill targeting software" to
be added to machines.
I've long thought it would be only a short amount of time before such
an enhancement was made: The software is obviously cheap - witness
WinPoker, and info could easily be compiled at the machine and
transmitted in a similar fashion to the tracking of coin-in and
wins/losses.
However, as of late I've had second thoughts: It's become clear (at
least in AC) that slot managers evaluate multi-game machines only by
overall hold, and never look at the win/loss on individual games on
the machine (the machines must track that into, no?). I now doubt
they could cope with the type of intelligence we're talkiing when
looking at player skill.
- Harry (whose assessment of casino management aptitude falls daily)
<<<
I've long thought it would be only a short amount of time before such
an enhancement was made: The software is obviously cheap - witness
WinPoker, and info could easily be compiled at the machine and
transmitted in a similar fashion to the tracking of coin-in and
wins/losses.
There are at least 2 issues here that make this harder than it
sounds.
First, some if not all VP machines are not like a computer as
we think of it. The 'code' is probably in something like an
eprom and so modifications are not as simple as loading a new
program. Instead, it probably requires swapping out a chip.
I know some of the newer games are (or will be) written in C.
When that comes to pass, this obstacle will probably go
away. But even then, the casino would be required to pay
extra for this kind of code.
Second. The card reader is an independent, passive (only reads
data) machine and the interface with the VP machine is pretty
limited. I doubt this will change anytime soon. The benefit of
such tracking will probably never outweigh the cost of expanding
the interface between the 2 machines to handle this kind of
information.
Finally, as I said before, it would be very easy for the casino
to simply hire someone to watch the players. We all know how
easy it is to spot a skilled player.
Note: This is as much conjecture as actual knowledge on my part.
Anyone who knows differently please comment.
QZ
Quad Zilla wrote:
Finally, as I said before, it would be very easy for the casino
to simply hire someone to watch the players. We all know how
easy it is to spot a skilled player.
We can, but can the casinos? I'm sure Greektown was exceptionally
accurate in who they chose to boot.
Or are you suggesting that this is the next market opportunity for
Compton-Dancer consulting?
- Harry
Then tonight, he called to say that a window had popped up on his
winpoker
that he had never seen before. It said,
STRONGLY SUGGEST YOU TAKE UP ANOTHER GAME
I would interpret that statement to mean that your friend was so bad
at video poker he should consider playing a different game where he
might have a ghost of a chance of winning.
Perhaps someone could contact the programmer to see if this message
was actually included in the programming.
Hi. I know almost nothing about the technology. But I am told the casinos already have the ability to determine if a player is an overall winner or loser. After all, they can produce win-loss statements upon request for the IRS.
It takes about 60 seconds of watching someone play to determine if they are a skilled player. I saw a guy in Trump Plaza last night, playing the only 9/6 JB machine in the joint. I saw him completely ditch a hand that had two high cards, hold a singleton ace instead of an open-ended straight, and one other error I forget _ all within about a minute. I played the machine later, and he told me it was real tight. You just have to catch it in the right cycle, he said. I thought, but didn't say, It also helps if you know how to play the game.
That's why we should be discreet and try and stay beneath the radar. I like to throw $5 or so through reel machines every so often, just to let the computer know I play crap.
Blessings and royals to all.
Elaine
<<<
I've long thought it would be only a short amount of time before such
an enhancement was made: The software is obviously cheap - witness
WinPoker, and info could easily be compiled at the machine and
transmitted in a similar fashion to the tracking of coin-in and
wins/losses.
Finally, as I said before, it would be very easy for the casino
to simply hire someone to watch the players. We all know how
easy it is to spot a skilled player.
Note: This is as much conjecture as actual knowledge on my part.
Anyone who knows differently please comment.
QZ
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···
Quad Zilla <quadzilla666@earthlink.net> wrote:
---------------------------------
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>>>>
There are at least 2 issues here that make this harder than it
sounds.First, some if not all VP machines are not like a computer as
we think of it. The 'code' is probably in something like an
eprom and so modifications are not as simple as loading a new
program. Instead, it probably requires swapping out a chip.
I know some of the newer games are (or will be) written in C.
When that comes to pass, this obstacle will probably go
away. But even then, the casino would be required to pay
extra for this kind of code.Second. The card reader is an independent, passive (only reads
data) machine and the interface with the VP machine is pretty
limited. I doubt this will change anytime soon. The benefit of
such tracking will probably never outweigh the cost of expanding
the interface between the 2 machines to handle this kind of
information.
You're probably right about machines as they exist today. I'm not sure
what kind of investment would be necessary to collect the data but in
an age where all kinds of player marketing data is collected and used
by casinos this information is definitely valuable. It may not be
the easiest way to do it but the only additional information that
need be transmitted from the machine are cards received and discarded.
Finally, as I said before, it would be very easy for the casino
to simply hire someone to watch the players. We all know how
easy it is to spot a skilled player.
Yes, the tin foil hat is a dead give away;-)
Note: This is as much conjecture as actual knowledge on my part.
Me too.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Quad Zilla" <quadzilla666@e...> wrote:
my comments are at the bottom
> There are at least 2 issues here that make this harder than it
> sounds.
>
> First, some if not all VP machines are not like a computer as
> we think of it. The 'code' is probably in something like an
> eprom and so modifications are not as simple as loading a new
> program. Instead, it probably requires swapping out a chip.
> I know some of the newer games are (or will be) written in C.
> When that comes to pass, this obstacle will probably go
> away. But even then, the casino would be required to pay
> extra for this kind of code.
>
> Second. The card reader is an independent, passive (only reads
> data) machine and the interface with the VP machine is pretty
> limited. I doubt this will change anytime soon. The benefit of
> such tracking will probably never outweigh the cost of expanding
> the interface between the 2 machines to handle this kind of
> information.You're probably right about machines as they exist today. I'm not sure
what kind of investment would be necessary to collect the data but in
an age where all kinds of player marketing data is collected and used
by casinos this information is definitely valuable. It may not be
the easiest way to do it but the only additional information that
need be transmitted from the machine are cards received and discarded.
The only piece of data that needs to be transmitted is the difference (in
betting units) between the player's strategy and optimal strategy for each
hand. I believe on the Multi games the type of game played is already
included in the data. Given these two pieces of data it is very easy to
precisely calculate the casinos "earn" from this player.
Having each VP machine compute the cost of the player's variance from
optimal strategy greatly reduces the amount of data transmission required.
It also distrubutes the workload among all VP machines rather than dumping
it all on a central processing/archival site. The amount of computing
required to do this analysis is not that great and I'm sure the computers
currently in the VP machines have enough power to handle this task.
Now, our only hope is that nobody does it!
Gamb00lers
The only piece of data that needs to be transmitted is the difference (in
betting units) between the player's strategy and optimal strategy for each
hand.<<
In all of this discussion, doesn't anyone think that the casinos might be
interested in actual winnings? Actual strategy/optimal strategy doesn't
translate to optimal strategy/winnings. At least not in the short term
window the casino may or may not be interested in looking at to evaluate a
specific player's "threat" to them.
lb
<<<
In all of this discussion, doesn't anyone think that the casinos might be
interested in actual winnings?
This has happened many times. Casinos have ejected people who
were playing at a disadvantage simply becuase they won a lot of money.
This is, of course, insane. Even now I think some casinos base your
comps and other perks on actual win/loss. This is a horrible way to
run a casino, but then, my opinion of much of casino management is
already on record.
<<<
Actual strategy/optimal strategy doesn't
translate to optimal strategy/winnings. At least not in the short term
window the casino may or may not be interested in looking at to evaluate a
specific player's "threat" to them.
The casino 'should' care about nothing but the long run. They get
to the long run in a matter of hours or weeks, depending on their size.
Some clown playing $25 VP and getting a quick RF or 2 is not a 'threat'.
The casinos simply need to realize that when they offer big money games
that they will take a loss once in awhile and not sweat so hard. Some
casino execs seem to think they shouold beat EVERY player. That
attitude is bad for business in the long run. They forget that they are
gambling too.
A common tactic employed by casino bosses who 'sweat' too hard is to
change dice or cards on a game that is dumping. I hope for their
sakes that this is now part of past behavior and not something you would
see today, but I suspect it still happens once in awhile, especially in
smaller joints. If they want to momentarily stop the game and check the
dice or cards for illegal modifications, they should do so. However,
outright switching them out is insane. Imagine some clown has run a grand
up to 100 grand on your dice table. He has 50K in the rack and 50K on the
table. Now, you change the dice. Now, he gets pissed and yanks all those
hardway and place bets and goes across the street to gamble. Not only is
he gone for the evening, he might never come back.
People who gamble like this are a casino's bread and butter, but
they are fickle. They believe the dice are hot and they know what
the casino is trying to do by removing them. They certainly don't
realize the entire effort is meaningless. Hardly a good way to
treat someone who will donate a lot of money to your casino if you
simply leave him alone.
QZ
The casino 'should' care about nothing but the long run. They get
to the long run in a matter of hours or weeks, depending on their size.
Yes, and that's what I meant when I said earlier in this thread that they
are competing against the pool of players, i.e. everyone who's playing at
any given time, rather than a few individuals who may be bucking the curve.
But I don't see how a casino can effectivley monitor a vp player's longterm
strategy/results, short of watching them at every session over every visit
for an extended period of time in order for it to be statistically accurate.
Short of obvious things, like team banging or playing only on bonus days, or
even only during bonus hours, it just wouldn't be cost effective.
A common tactic employed by casino bosses who 'sweat' too hard is to
change dice or cards on a game that is dumping. I hope for their
sakes that this is now part of past behavior and not something you would
see today, but I suspect it still happens once in awhile, especially in
smaller joints. <<
It's still fairly common, even in big casinos. As recently as my last visit
to Luxor in August a pit boss changed dice on a player who'd apparently made
many too many passes. No one left, but a guy did yell odds off on the come
out, which is normal anyway. It's easier to just change the dice than to
examine them, which creates the impression that the shooter might be
cheating.
lb
As much as I hate to agree with you <G>, I concur that the casinos are more interested in your win-threat to them, then how you play.
I know NON-card counters who've been asked to leave BJ because they are constant winners, not because of raising or lowering bets, or counting.
ADR
···
At 08:58 PM 1/17/03, you wrote:
At least not in the short term
window the casino may or may not be interested in looking at to evaluate a
specific player's "threat" to them.
The second time today I have to agree with comments: :>
The guy that has the lucky run is most likely going to keep returning to "the scene of the crime" until the casino eventually wins it all back..... and some.
ADR
···
At 10:26 PM 1/17/03, you wrote:
Hardly a good way to
treat someone who will donate a lot of money to your casino if you
simply leave him alone.
Aren't you aware that the above and "when the dice go off the table..." it's an automatic rule that the next role is a "seven"?
Only kidding... no flames, please.
ADR
[Who is known to stand and walk around his VP seat once, which automatically changes the RNG, if things are running cold.
···
At 11:18 PM 1/17/03, you wrote:
No one left, but a guy did yell odds off on the come
out, which is normal anyway.
This thread has introduced a good point which illustrates why all the
speculation about "skill-tracking" systems is a bit pointless:
Management is still far too clueless even in the most sophisticated
venues to grasp the simple concepts involved. They're massively
plugged into "large losers are good for us and significant winners are
a dangerous lot". Casinos have an edge over the players, so obviously
in a skill game winners cheat the house.
There's an interesting corollary to this: There's a lot of potential
benefit to diversifying your play between several casinos. You're
statistically likely to be a large loser at one for a significant
stretch of time. That's when you can milk the hell out of the system
and ask for comp considerations quite a bit in excess of what they
might otherwise grant you. Hell, you've demonstrated that you're
willing to incur a large loss (supported, hopefully, by offsetting
anomalous wins elsewhere 
and certainly the last thing they want to
see is a "profitable" player walk out of frustration. (This advice
presumes that you're playing positive games there and have expection
of wins. Of course, we all know that if you're consistently losing
when you expect profit the machines must be "gaffed" :).
- Harry
my comments are at the bottom
The only piece of data that needs to be transmitted is the
difference (in
betting units) between the player's strategy and optimal strategy
for each
hand. I believe on the Multi games the type of game played is
already
included in the data. Given these two pieces of data it is very
easy to
precisely calculate the casinos "earn" from this player.
Having each VP machine compute the cost of the player's variance
from
optimal strategy greatly reduces the amount of data transmission
required.
It also distrubutes the workload among all VP machines rather than
dumping
it all on a central processing/archival site
I agree. That is why I said it may not be the easiest way to do it.
I was simply trying to reduce what is done by the machines on the
casino floor to the bare minimum.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gamb00lers" <gamb00ler@l...> wrote:
Several years ago at the Taj Mahal in AC, I saw the pit boss kick someone off the Big Six wheel after he made a couple of hits. They said he could play blackjack or another game, but had to stay off the wheel.
I thought that was dumb, as the Big Six wheel has crappier odds that the slots.
Elaine
···
Quad Zilla <quadzilla666@earthlink.net> wrote:
This has happened many times. Casinos have ejected people who
were playing at a disadvantage simply becuase they won a lot of money.
This is, of course, insane. Even now I think some casinos base your
comps and other perks on actual win/loss. This is a horrible way to
run a casino, but then, my opinion of much of casino management is
already on record.
---------------------------------
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