So I'm faced with a decision...
I need to put in $10k coin-in once per month...
I have two choices to do so...
1.) $ NSUD single-play
2.) 100-play 1c 9/6 JoB
I know mathmatically the NSUD has 99.73% payback and JoB only has 99.54%...however, I think it would lower the volatility a little (or a lot) if I play the 100-play right?
IE: $1000 would actually get me to $10k coin-in on 100-play, whereas it might take $2000 on $ NSUD Single-Line
What are your thoughts?
Interestingly from what I've read it seems that 100 play machines are
actually higher variance as a whole (as the initial dealt cards produce
lower variance when compared to draw cards which are extremely high
variance. However the difference is by playing on a 1c machine versus a 1$
machine the standard deviation of how much you are up/down is going to be
much closer to expected value with the 100 play. So basically you are nearly
guaranteed to get 10k of play for around $500 or less.
http://www.winnergambling.com/casino-tools/return-and-variance-calculator/check
it out for simulations and variance.
On Wed, Jun 29, 2011 at 3:26 PM, TIMSPEED <corvetteracing87@yahoo.com>wrote:
**
So I'm faced with a decision...
I need to put in $10k coin-in once per month...
I have two choices to do so...
1.) $ NSUD single-play
2.) 100-play 1c 9/6 JoBI know mathmatically the NSUD has 99.73% payback and JoB only has
99.54%...however, I think it would lower the volatility a little (or a lot)
if I play the 100-play right?
IE: $1000 would actually get me to $10k coin-in on 100-play, whereas it
might take $2000 on $ NSUD Single-LineWhat are your thoughts?
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
So I'm faced with a decision...
I need to put in $10k coin-in once per month...
I have two choices to do so...
1.) $ NSUD single-play
2.) 100-play 1c 9/6 JoBI know mathmatically the NSUD has 99.73% payback and JoB only has 99.54%...however, I think it would lower the volatility a little (or a lot) if I play the 100-play right?
IE: $1000 would actually get me to $10k coin-in on 100-play, whereas it might take $2000 on $ NSUD Single-LineWhat are your thoughts?
The Wizard of Odds has a webpage that discusses the standard deviation of n-play video poker: http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/appendix3.html
So, you're trying to decide between 2000 spins at $5/spin on NSUD or 2000 spins x 100 lines of 1 cent 9/6 JoB. According to the information from the WoO (the NSUD S.D. is given as 5.077845 on this page: http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/tables/deuceswild.html), the total S.D. for the NSUD is then 5.077845*sqrt(2000)*$1*5 = $1135.44. Since the EV of NSUD is 99.73%, you're looking at losing $27 on your $10K. Thus, your EV plus or minus one S.D. looks like -$1162.44 to +$1108.44.
For the 100-play JoB, the S.D. is 14.635143*sqrt(100*2000)*$0.01*5 = $327.25. The EV is 99.54%, so you're looking at losing $46 on your $10K. Thus, your EV plus or minus one S.D. looks like -$373.25 to +$281.25.
Clearly, here the JoB is the much less-volatile play.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand