Best available VP at Harrah's in Vegas are as follows:
Paris - $1/$2 9/6 JB in machines labeled "Blackjack"
Flamingo Hilton - $5 9/6 JB in hi roller
Harrah's - $5 9/6 JB in hi roller area; 2 $1 9/6 in video poker area
(uprights on wall)
Rio - $5 9/6 in hi roller area
Caesars - $1 JB and other single and multiplay games. May still be some
fifty cent or even quarter 9/6. This casino has the most 9/6 JB.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Sorry if this sounds like an ignorant question, but how does multiplay
compare to single play? Since my basic goal is to balance minimizing
volatility with minimizing playing time to get $18K in coin in, is one
better than the other? I guess what I'm really asking is am I better
off playing $1 multiplay at Caesars or $2 single at Paris? Or am I
better off going to Caesars and looking for quarter or 50C multiplay?
Best available VP at Harrah's in Vegas are as follows:
Paris - $1/$2 9/6 JB in machines labeled "Blackjack"
Flamingo Hilton - $5 9/6 JB in hi roller
Harrah's - $5 9/6 JB in hi roller area; 2 $1 9/6 in video poker
area
(uprights on wall)
Rio - $5 9/6 in hi roller area
Caesars - $1 JB and other single and multiplay games. May still be
some
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, misscraps@... wrote:
fifty cent or even quarter 9/6. This casino has the most 9/6 JB.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Unless things have changed... Ceasars: quarter&$ NSUD; quarter, .50 & $
single and multiplay JB; STP and MS.
Chandler
-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
misscraps@aol.com
Sent: Monday, April 24, 2006 10:08 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] best VP at Harrah's properties in Vegas
Best available VP at Harrah's in Vegas are as follows:
Paris - $1/$2 9/6 JB in machines labeled "Blackjack"
Flamingo Hilton - $5 9/6 JB in hi roller
Harrah's - $5 9/6 JB in hi roller area; 2 $1 9/6 in video poker area
(uprights on wall)
Rio - $5 9/6 in hi roller area
Caesars - $1 JB and other single and multiplay games. May still be some
fifty cent or even quarter 9/6. This casino has the most 9/6 JB.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
Yahoo! Groups Links
To put it simply, if you can divide up the same bet in multiplay that you
would have made in single play, you will experience less volatility and will
require smaller bankroll. Quarter 4 play is less volatile than $1 single
play. Quarter single play is less volatile than quarter multiplay. For an
explanation see Jazzbo's N Play link in the vpFREE links page.
Chandler
-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
little_jimmy112
Sent: Monday, April 24, 2006 11:39 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: best VP at Harrah's properties in Vegas
Sorry if this sounds like an ignorant question, but how does multiplay
compare to single play? Since my basic goal is to balance minimizing
volatility with minimizing playing time to get $18K in coin in, is one
better than the other? I guess what I'm really asking is am I better
off playing $1 multiplay at Caesars or $2 single at Paris? Or am I
better off going to Caesars and looking for quarter or 50C multiplay?
Can anyone confirm (or deny) the existence of any good quarter
multiplay games at any LV Harrah's? On this and other forums I've
heard both answers (specifically, at Caesar's).
Best available VP at Harrah's in Vegas are as follows:
Paris - $1/$2 9/6 JB in machines labeled "Blackjack"
Flamingo Hilton - $5 9/6 JB in hi roller
Harrah's - $5 9/6 JB in hi roller area; 2 $1 9/6 in video poker
area
(uprights on wall)
Rio - $5 9/6 in hi roller area
Caesars - $1 JB and other single and multiplay games. May still be
some
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, misscraps@... wrote:
fifty cent or even quarter 9/6. This casino has the most 9/6 JB.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Hmm... think I'm still not getting it (sorry!). Jazbo's article
would seem to suggest a significantly higher variance (and thus
required bankroll) for N-play versus singleplay.
To put it simply, if you can divide up the same bet in multiplay
that you
would have made in single play, you will experience less
volatility and will
require smaller bankroll. Quarter 4 play is less volatile than $1
single
play. Quarter single play is less volatile than quarter
multiplay. For an
explanation see Jazzbo's N Play link in the vpFREE links page.
Chandler
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On
Behalf Of
little_jimmy112
Sent: Monday, April 24, 2006 11:39 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: best VP at Harrah's properties in VegasSorry if this sounds like an ignorant question, but how does
multiplay
compare to single play? Since my basic goal is to balance
minimizing
volatility with minimizing playing time to get $18K in coin in, is
one
better than the other? I guess what I'm really asking is am I
better
off playing $1 multiplay at Caesars or $2 single at Paris? Or am I
better off going to Caesars and looking for quarter or 50C
multiplay?
Depends on the amount "bet". Thus, all other things being equal, a 4-line NSUD quarter
play (a $5 bet) has a lower variance than a 1 line dollar NSUD (the same $5 bet).
.....bl
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "little_jimmy112" <little_jimmy112@...> wrote:
Hmm... think I'm still not getting it (sorry!). Jazbo's article
would seem to suggest a significantly higher variance (and thus
required bankroll) for N-play versus singleplay.— In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Chandler" <omnibibulous1@> wrote:
>
> To put it simply, if you can divide up the same bet in multiplay
that you
> would have made in single play, you will experience less
volatility and will
> require smaller bankroll. Quarter 4 play is less volatile than $1
single
> play. Quarter single play is less volatile than quarter
multiplay. For an
> explanation see Jazzbo's N Play link in the vpFREE links page.
>
> Chandler
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On
Behalf Of
> little_jimmy112
> Sent: Monday, April 24, 2006 11:39 PM
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: best VP at Harrah's properties in Vegas
>
>
> Sorry if this sounds like an ignorant question, but how does
multiplay
> compare to single play? Since my basic goal is to balance
minimizing
> volatility with minimizing playing time to get $18K in coin in, is
one
> better than the other? I guess what I'm really asking is am I
better
> off playing $1 multiplay at Caesars or $2 single at Paris? Or am I
> better off going to Caesars and looking for quarter or 50C
multiplay?
>
little_jimmy112 wrote:
Hmm... think I'm still not getting it (sorry!). Jazbo's article
would seem to suggest a significantly higher variance (and thus
required bankroll) for N-play versus singleplay.
Don't count yourself alone in having a little difficulty when
digesting his write-up. There's good solid material there but I found
myself having to dissect it line by line to walk away with a solid
comprehension.
(I must be particularly dense because I don't seem to hear of others
struggling with this.)
- H.
Then let me be the first. While the basic concept seemed intuitively
correct to me, it took me quite a bit of head scratching and numerous
readings to grasp his work well enough to find the basic utility for my vp
play... and I don't hope for anything further than basic utility with my
limited ability. This is not to dispute your thesis that you are
particularly dense, Harry;-)
Chandler
-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
Harry Porter
Sent: Tuesday, April 25, 2006 4:47 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: best VP at Harrah's properties in Vegas
Don't count yourself alone in having a little difficulty when
digesting his write-up. There's good solid material there but I found
myself having to dissect it line by line to walk away with a solid
comprehension.
(I must be particularly dense because I don't seem to hear of others
struggling with this.)
- H.
Since in N play the hands are not independent bur positively correlated
the variance for N plays is greater than N(single hand variance).
Dale
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
little_jimmy112 wrote:
> Hmm... think I'm still not getting it (sorry!). Jazbo's article
> would seem to suggest a significantly higher variance (and thus
> required bankroll) for N-play versus singleplay.Don't count yourself alone in having a little difficulty when
digesting his write-up. There's good solid material there but I found
myself having to dissect it line by line to walk away with a solid
comprehension.(I must be particularly dense because I don't seem to hear of others
struggling with this.)- H.
rosspark100 wrote:
Since in N play the hands are not independent bur positively
correlated the variance for N plays is greater than N(single hand
variance).
Decent explanation in a nutshell, Dale.
btw, vpFA, wasn't there was a compendium of message excerpts on
various topics (including N-play considerations) referenced in the
FAQ's (or elsewhere)?
I wasn't able to hunt this up. Sorry to see it removed, if that's the
case. There were invaluable contributions from Steve Jacobs cited,
among others.
- Harry
little_jimmy112 wrote:
Sorry if this sounds like an ignorant question, but how does
multiplay compare to single play? Since my basic goal is to balance
minimizing volatility with minimizing playing time to get $18K in
coin in, is one better than the other? I guess what I'm really
asking is am I better off playing $1 multiplay at Caesars or $2
single at Paris? Or am I better off going to Caesars and looking
for quarter or 50C multiplay?
I'm hung up once again in what has been a near interminable system
migration. So, let me come back around and address these questions
more thoroughly.
I'll give you some practical advice right off the bat ... then,
assuming that you have some analytic interest that may go beyond what
you really need to know to cope with multiplay in the casino, I'll
give you a cursory overview of the variables involved -- which are a
little more extensive than typically discussed.
-------------------------------
I don't know what your standard play consists of, but there's a hint
in your reference to "minimizing playing time" that your suggested
plays above are pushing the envelope relative to your mainstays.
After all, if you're really concerned about minimizing volatility, why
not go with $1 single line as your "front line" considered play?
You're only talking about 5 hours max in the casino to kill off that
$18K. If you tend not to be around for that long on a typical visit,
what the heck are you sweating DIAD in a day for? (I don't mean to be
cynical ... just making sure that we're both working from a decently
functional perspective.)
------
Setting those comments aside, but still addressing the possibility
that you're looking to venture into new play turf here, I'll suggest
that it's generally inadvisable for anyone to stray from their typical
play choices when tackling a promotion, unless there are very clear,
strong advantages.
Reducing the variance of the day's play is a poor goal. You have
every reason to be as comfortable hitting this targeted play in the
same manner that you do all the rest of your play.
------
Finally, irregardless of what your standard play regimen, I'll suggest
that the best way for anyone to get a handle on the comfort of a play
vs. another is to simply sit down and play for a couple of hours.
Ok, here's a discussion of what's at play when you try to come at this
question through an exploration of variance. I suggest skipping it
though ... it's going to come across as a bunch of gobbledy-gook
unless you've had the type of motivation that would lead you to parse
Jazbo's article word by word:
------------------------------
Trying to digest variance values and apply them is a neat academic
exercise, but it's pretty unreliable when it comes to vp --
particularly if you're concerned about win/loss variability over a
limited number of hours.
The variance calculation assumes phenomena are normally distributed.
Because of the inherent skewness in vp paytables, outcomes don't
adhere to a bell shaped curve (pretty obvious).
While it's true that over the "long term" (that's a nebulous term for
which I'd like to substitute the expression "over the 'George'" ;),
results do approximate a normal distribution -- and therefore there's
a reasonably decent rough correlation between variance and bankroll
requirement -- variance is a fairly weak descriptor for the behavior
of vp results over the course of less then 500,000 hands. Forget
about it as a reliable comparison of what to expect over the course of
a few weeks of play, much less a single day.
------
Things get even dicier when you start comparing multiline plays with
single line, especially if there's a disparity in total bet per play.
If you're looking at a simplistic example of single line $1 vs. 4-play
$.25, it's a no-brainer to say the 4-play is going to expose you to
less loss risk for any given amount of coin-in. Makes sense --
instead of your entire bet riding on a single draw to a dealt hand,
you get to spread it over 4 separate independent draws.
But translating the relative variances of a single play and multiline
one into a statement of absolute loss risks is fraught with hazard --
even more so than comparing two single line plays of different games.
When comparing single line plays (e.g. JB w/ PE), you're at least
doing an "apple to apple" comparison when it comes to the variance
concept. But multiline variance overlays the standard single line
calculation with a separate one that assesses the extent to which
having multiple draws depend upon an identical dealt hand skew the
outcome distribution. These are two very different variance
considerations that don't neatly sum together in a way that's
analogous to the single line variance calculation.
The point is, in the short term, multiline volatility will behave
differently than single line. You're taking a pot shot when you use a
single point descriptor such as variance to draw a comparison.
I challenge anyone to firmly arrive at the number of lines of $.25
multiline that has comparable loss risk to single line $1 play, under
a given play scenario, solely based upon the respective variances (or
respond to your questions on that basis, FWIW).
------
You introduce yet another wrinkle that makes that approach anything
but cut and dry. Comparing variance of two plays is somewhat feasible
when you are looking at the same number of base deals (plays). But
you're interested in the situation where you target a fixed coin-in,
yet the alternatives have different bets per play.
This isn't a nightmare to account for, but it definitely murks up the
reliability of any drawn conclusion.
Getting a sense of why your question hasn't been comprehensively
covered in some resource?
------
That said, there are some decent rough cut calculations that you can
perform to make some useful approximations. Jazbo's and Wizard of
Odds' articles provide good fodder for how to approach this.
But it's a lot more practical (and satisfying 
to just haul yourself
in front of the machines under consideration and discover the scoop by
the seat of your pants (making appropriately reasonable play ventures
with due restraint, of course
------------------
Helpful?
In any case, it cured the tedium of drumming my fingers while waiting
to proceed on what at one point this weekend felt like an electronic
version of the Bataan Death March ...
- Harry
(excuse typos -- there are bound to be several ... I'm writing this
off the cuff and not bothering to go back a proof ...)
Excellent points, and I appreciate the more lengthy discussion at
the end.
At this point my "standard play" is nonexistant. I've been a table
player my whole gambling life, and have very rarely played VP in the
past. I stick to blackjack with solid basic strategy or the good
bets in craps, and have a great time. However, in the past few
months I've experienced some big changes in my gambling "habbits".
First, due to a whole number of reasons, I'm in Vegas quite a bit
more - at least once, frequently 2-3 times per month; second, a
rough review of my trips over the last year made me realize that
over time my gambling losses are generally a much smaller number
than money laid out for food, rooms, and entertainment while in town
(significantly smaller number). Since the biggest reason I go to
Vegas is the rush of the casinos, it's time to adjust my playing
strategy a bit. I'd like to try splitting my time between VP and
the tables, with the hopes of playing high-percentage VP, having a
good time and getting good offers.
The reason I'm looking to keep "playing time" down is two-fold.
First, this will be my first real stay at any of the Vegas Harrah's
properties, and while I'm sure I'd make diamond over the course of
the year, I'd much rather make it an the onset of spending a week
out there with a big group of friends. However, having that group
around means that the amount of focused time I can spend at VP at a
single casino is somewhat limited. Ie, I'd have a hard time putting
in the time to get a $18K coin-in on quarters. Since I'm a VP
beginner, I'd be lucky to get through the 14,400 required hands in a
day. Also, due to my inexperience, I suspect my endurance at the
VPs will need some work, and I wont be able to keep up a decent rate
of play with solid strategy for much more than 5-6 hours. Of
course, the easiest solution would be to sit down at the $5 machines
with a very large bankroll, play my 720 hands, and be done. In a
perfect world I'd do that, hit the royal, and be a very happy
camper. However, since I'm not going to do that, my next best bet
is to try and answer the question: Given $18K coin-in over a 5-6
hour period, what's the best game/strategy/etc. to play to minimize
my risk of ruin? In the longer run, I'd like to really spend some
time getting to know the games, get a feel for different plays,
etc., but this particular trip presents some interesting challenges.
Anyways, sorry for the novel :). Thanks again for the excellent
reply.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:
I'm hung up once again in what has been a near interminable system
migration. So, let me come back around and address these questions
more thoroughly.I'll give you some practical advice right off the bat ... then,
assuming that you have some analytic interest that may go beyond
what
you really need to know to cope with multiplay in the casino, I'll
give you a cursory overview of the variables involved -- which are
a
little more extensive than typically discussed.
-------------------------------
I don't know what your standard play consists of, but there's a
hint
in your reference to "minimizing playing time" that your suggested
plays above are pushing the envelope relative to your mainstays.After all, if you're really concerned about minimizing volatility,
why
not go with $1 single line as your "front line" considered play?
You're only talking about 5 hours max in the casino to kill off
that
$18K. If you tend not to be around for that long on a typical
visit,
what the heck are you sweating DIAD in a day for? (I don't mean
to be
cynical ... just making sure that we're both working from a
decently
functional perspective.)
------
Setting those comments aside, but still addressing the possibility
that you're looking to venture into new play turf here, I'll
suggest
that it's generally inadvisable for anyone to stray from their
typical
play choices when tackling a promotion, unless there are very
clear,
strong advantages.
Reducing the variance of the day's play is a poor goal. You have
every reason to be as comfortable hitting this targeted play in the
same manner that you do all the rest of your play.------
Finally, irregardless of what your standard play regimen, I'll
suggest
that the best way for anyone to get a handle on the comfort of a
play
vs. another is to simply sit down and play for a couple of hours.
Ok, here's a discussion of what's at play when you try to come at
this
question through an exploration of variance. I suggest skipping it
though ... it's going to come across as a bunch of gobbledy-gook
unless you've had the type of motivation that would lead you to
parse
Jazbo's article word by word:
------------------------------
Trying to digest variance values and apply them is a neat academic
exercise, but it's pretty unreliable when it comes to vp --
particularly if you're concerned about win/loss variability over a
limited number of hours.The variance calculation assumes phenomena are normally
distributed.
Because of the inherent skewness in vp paytables, outcomes don't
adhere to a bell shaped curve (pretty obvious).While it's true that over the "long term" (that's a nebulous term
for
which I'd like to substitute the expression "over the 'George'" ;),
results do approximate a normal distribution -- and therefore
there's
a reasonably decent rough correlation between variance and bankroll
requirement -- variance is a fairly weak descriptor for the
behavior
of vp results over the course of less then 500,000 hands. Forget
about it as a reliable comparison of what to expect over the
course of
a few weeks of play, much less a single day.
------
Things get even dicier when you start comparing multiline plays
with
single line, especially if there's a disparity in total bet per
play.
If you're looking at a simplistic example of single line $1 vs. 4-
play
$.25, it's a no-brainer to say the 4-play is going to expose you to
less loss risk for any given amount of coin-in. Makes sense --
instead of your entire bet riding on a single draw to a dealt hand,
you get to spread it over 4 separate independent draws.But translating the relative variances of a single play and
multiline
one into a statement of absolute loss risks is fraught with
hazard --
even more so than comparing two single line plays of different
games.
When comparing single line plays (e.g. JB w/ PE), you're at least
doing an "apple to apple" comparison when it comes to the variance
concept. But multiline variance overlays the standard single line
calculation with a separate one that assesses the extent to which
having multiple draws depend upon an identical dealt hand skew the
outcome distribution. These are two very different variance
considerations that don't neatly sum together in a way that's
analogous to the single line variance calculation.The point is, in the short term, multiline volatility will behave
differently than single line. You're taking a pot shot when you
use a
single point descriptor such as variance to draw a comparison.
I challenge anyone to firmly arrive at the number of lines of $.25
multiline that has comparable loss risk to single line $1 play,
under
a given play scenario, solely based upon the respective variances
(or
respond to your questions on that basis, FWIW).
------
You introduce yet another wrinkle that makes that approach anything
but cut and dry. Comparing variance of two plays is somewhat
feasible
when you are looking at the same number of base deals (plays). But
you're interested in the situation where you target a fixed coin-
in,
yet the alternatives have different bets per play.
This isn't a nightmare to account for, but it definitely murks up
the
reliability of any drawn conclusion.
Getting a sense of why your question hasn't been comprehensively
covered in some resource?------
That said, there are some decent rough cut calculations that you
can
perform to make some useful approximations. Jazbo's and Wizard of
Odds' articles provide good fodder for how to approach this.But it's a lot more practical (and satisfying
yourself
in front of the machines under consideration and discover the
scoop by
the seat of your pants (making appropriately reasonable play
ventures
with due restraint, of course
------------------
Helpful?
In any case, it cured the tedium of drumming my fingers while
waiting
to proceed on what at one point this weekend felt like an
electronic
version of the Bataan Death March ...
- Harry
(excuse typos -- there are bound to be several ... I'm writing this
off the cuff and not bothering to go back a proof ...)
little_jimmy112 wrote:
At this point my "standard play" is nonexistant. I've been a table
player my whole gambling life, and have very rarely played VP in the
past. I stick to blackjack with solid basic strategy or the good
bets in craps, and have a great time. However, in the past few
months I've experienced some big changes in my gambling "habbits".
... I'd like to try splitting my time between VP and
the tables, with the hopes of playing high-percentage VP, having a
good time and getting good offers.
At the risk of wearing out my welcome, I'll offer up a few more
observations. Be forewarned, I'm typically more conservative than
most players.
The reason I'm looking to keep "playing time" down is two-fold.
First, this will be my first real stay at any of the Vegas Harrah's
properties, and while I'm sure I'd make diamond over the course of
the year, I'd much rather make it an the onset of spending a week
out there with a big group of friends. However, having that group
around means that the amount of focused time I can spend at VP at a
single casino is somewhat limited. Ie, I'd have a hard time putting
in the time to get a $18K coin-in on quarters. Since I'm a VP
beginner, I'd be lucky to get through the 14,400 required hands in a
day. Also, due to my inexperience, I suspect my endurance at the
VPs will need some work, and I wont be able to keep up a decent rate
of play with solid strategy for much more than 5-6 hours.
Ok, a couple of red flags are going up. I'll grant that you strike me
as a reasonably savvy gambler. You're definitely beyond the teeth
cutting stage. But this smacks a little of you jumping into the vp
pool at the deep end. If you were my buddy, I'd like to see you flail
around a little more -- not necessarily in the kiddie pool, but at
least no deeper than where you can touch bottom with your toes and
easily bounce back above the surface. (No intent to be condescending
here, ok?
I understand the attraction of a speedy DIAD given your circumstances.
But, it's not a "to die for" status. It only takes 10 days of play
to earn at just $10K per day. If you're not going to be around that
frequently, it's all the less crucial to earn Diamond.
My advice to anyone is that there is nothing about Diamond that
warrants undertaking more risk to earn it in a day than what you'd
typically play. This is a case where jumping denomination is an
indication that your priorties need some realignment.
It simply doesn't make sense to expose yourself to a good shot at a
$2K-$3K loss in your Diamond quest. I don't think anyone is going to
feel particularly proud at such a loss if they don't generally play at
the level selected for this run.
-----
Let me touch on play denomination:
You spoke earlier of considering $2 single line or $1 multiline for
your play. Cut back your considered play to single line $1 and you
still have a reasonable risk of a $1K-$2K loss on this, assuming a
moderate variance game such as Jacks. (Multiplay, if available in
quarters -- or absent that, possibly 3-play $.50 -- is an attractive
option by which to significantly reduce that risk.)
You say you don't have an established vp regimen. That's ok ... you
can look to your BJ play for some guidance at what would be a
reasonable play denomination.
There's reasonable comfort in putting through the same coin-in each
hour for Jacks or Better as your currently do blackjack. So, let's
say that you currently play at an average bet of $50 with 60 hands
dealt per hour. That's $3000/hr. $1 9/6 Jacks at a moderate pace of
600 hands/hr. is the equivalent.
Adjust accordingly to reflect your play. $25 avg bet will look to
$.50 vp, $10-$15 to quarters, $100 to $2 vp. Take these numbers with
a grain of salt ... they're ballpark estimates, but good enough for
starters.
Bear in mind that I'm referencing 9/6 Jacks or Better as the vp play.
Target a more volatile game (say DB) and you need to be more
conservative in your denomination. (I'm not taking the time to review
the specific plays that will be available to you.)
Looking very loosely at multiplay equivalents, I suggest a rule of
thumb of 3 play at half the denom of single play (e.g. $.25-3p vs.
$.50), and 10 play at a quarter the denom of single ($.25-10p vs. $1).
This is reasonably conservative, but I wouldn't suggest striving for
something more aggressive until you've been through the multiplay mill
once or twice.
(FWIW, I don't recommend MultiStrike at anything higher than a total
wager that's less than or equal to your standard single play wager --
and even at that you're in for a rougher ride ... e.g. $.25 MS vs. $1
single line).
However, since I'm not going to do that, my next best bet
is to try and answer the question: Given $18K coin-in over a 5-6
hour period, what's the best game/strategy/etc. to play to minimize
my risk of ruin?
Well, the first game most every player should consider is 9/6 Jacks or
Better (particularly if "full pay" deuces isn't a viable alternative
-- and if it is, rethink playing somewhere that it's not ... but of
course, there are other considerations aside from a high ER).
JB has a strong return, moderate variance, and generally strong
availability at multiple denoms. The strategy is the cornerstone of
every non-wild card game, to boot.
------------
Tell you what: Give some consideration to what I've spewed out here
(and I apologize I'm not giving this the edit that I normally would),
and review what games are available at your planned casino,
referencing the vpFREE database -- my guess is that Caesars is your
best option, but I haven't kept abreast of what's been going on with
inventories in your neck of the woods.
Come back with some strong specifics about what you think is worth
considering and I imagine I, and others, will give you firm feedback
along the lines you desire.
Anyways, sorry for the novel :).
yeah, right ... like I stint on words
- Harry
Thank you very much -- this was exactly the type of response I was
hoping for. Ok, for starters, my (current) plan is to make my way
to Caesars and either getting lucky and nabbing the 1 MG/MD 10-play
machine or one of the numerous 5-play JoBs. If I can get on the 10-
play, I'd start with 10c 10-play; otherwise, 25c 5-play. Based on
your suggestions I might look at the 25c 10-play. Of course, I'm
assuming my chances of getting ahold of the one machine in the joint
that offers this to be pretty low. So, I'm assuming I'll be playing
25c 5-play JoB, with a session loss limit of $500. That's 400 bets,
which according to Jazbo's write-up on volatility would give me
around 60% odds at making the 14,400 hands I need (note that doesn't
include an adjustment based on multiplay variance). At that point
I'd stop and evaluate what I wanted to do next; obviously if I was
10 points short I'd keep going, otherwise I'd walk with anywhere
(probably!) from $10-15K of play in a day, which should at least be
good for some wimpy offers (and platinum).
When I play the tables I generally play with a session bankroll of
around $500, trip bankroll of $2.5K. I rarely go more than 3 days
at a time, average about 5 days per month. General table play is
$25/hand, adjust it up or down based on my goals for the trip, what
my friends are doing, phase of the moon, etc. (don't adjust based on
whether I'm winning or losing, though if I have an awesome winning
streak I'll usually take a chunk of it and really go for broke).
little_jimmy112 wrote:
Thank you very much -- this was exactly the type of response I was
hoping for.
Great. Let's see what you're coming back with:
Ok, for starters, my (current) plan is to make my way
to Caesars and either getting lucky and nabbing the 1 MG/MD 10-play
machine or one of the numerous 5-play JoBs. If I can get on the 10-
play, I'd start with 10c 10-play; otherwise, 25c 5-play. Based on
your suggestions I might look at the 25c 10-play.
You later indicate that your bj play runs at an average bet of around
$25. I expect that will give you marginal tolerance, at best, for the
volatility of quarter 10-play Jacks. If you should decide to go for
it, given the relatively high coin-in per wager you should mentally
prepare yourself for an hour's downside loss potential of $600-$900 on
roughly $6500 coin-in per hour.
Of course, I'm assuming my chances of getting ahold of the one
machine in the joint that offers this to be pretty low. So, I'm
assuming I'll be playing 25c 5-play JoB, with a session loss limit
of $500. That's 400 bets, which according to Jazbo's write-up on
volatility would give me around 60% odds at making the 14,400 hands
I need (note that doesn't include an adjustment based on multiplay
variance).
Hmmm, personally, I'd prefer to go into this with something stronger
than a 60% likelihood of survival.
Frankly, though, without visiting the specifics of Jazbo's writeup,
I'm a little skeptical about that "60%" estimate -- I'd expect
something less than 50% (probably close to 30%-40%).
A $500 stake for $18K of targeted play allows an average loss of 2.8%.
It should be easy to recognize that in the event that you hit neither
a RF or SF during your session, your expected loss is 3%.
If we're talking about where someone would end up after $18K of play,
without any interim bankroll limitiation (i.e., allowing for
situations in which you might temporarily dip in excess of $1K in the
red), then the 60% sounds good -- I'll buy that it's 60% likely that
you'll end with a loss no greater than $500.
However, interim survivability is key. And I see a decent chance you
might blow through $500 on 5-play quarter JB in just the first $8K of
play.
If I were to target DIAD on a $500 session stake, I wouldn't look to
do anything other than slug it out on single line quarters to begin
with and maybe jump to 3-play quarters at the half-way point if I was
still holding onto $300+.
At that point I'd stop and evaluate what I wanted to do next;
obviously if I was 10 points short I'd keep going, otherwise I'd
walk with anywhere (probably!) from $10-15K of play in a day, which
should at least be good for some wimpy offers (and platinum).
If you're thinking in terms of future offers, focus on play that you
can reasonably sustain on future visits. Personally, I'd prefer to
give a first trip that will yield an indication of what I can expect
from the casino down the road on an ongoing basis than to simply
impress them the first time around and expect to coast on that.
Frankly, that type of "coast" typically comes to an abrupt, unpleasant
halt early on.
(There's an exception, of course, when you intentially plan to "burn"
a casino on any subsequent offers and not look to establish a real
relationship there. Personally, not the tack I take if there's any
viable continued play.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"l.j.", I'm playing fast and loose with these observations. I'm
spitting them out in a rough "stream of consciousness".
Make appropriate allowances if some simply don't fit your particular
situation. Take what works and run with it.
If you have further questions/comments after you have a chance to mull
these additional remarks over, please fire away.
- Harry
Ouch... $600-900/hr is a tough one. I'll probably stay away from 10-
play quarters; maybe try and start with 10-play 10c, and (as you
suggested) graduate up to 3-play or possible 5-play quarters. While
I agree that 60% is relatively weak, I'm torn between the
conflicting desire to get into VP and a little timidity at jumping
in head-first. Jazbo's analysis basically predicts the
expected "half-life" of a bankroll as a function of betting units.
Although I think the "half-life" terminology is a little confusing,
his analysis basically addresses the question, "given a certain
bankroll (in units of bets), at what number of hands played does the
probability of ruin equal 50%?". For a bankroll of 320 bets, 9/6
JoB looks like around 45%. Assuming a relatively linear
relationship between 320 and 400 betting units, that translates
upward to about 60% for the number of hands in question. Of course,
the added variance of n-play plays brings that number down. While I
wont dispute that my expected loss is 3% ($540), that's not so far
off that it scares me terribly. In fact, given that, I'm tempted to
set my session bankroll to $540; thus, if the statistics play
out "as expected" I'll have the perfect bankroll for my intended
play, and for this short-term play it'll come down to luck (I know,
I know... but at the end of the day this IS gambling, right? ;).
And you never know... I might even get lucky and hit the SF or RF.
Actually, with that number of hands (14,400), a straight flush isn't
too far outside the realm of possibility; I believe (again from some
of Jazbo's stuff) that the odds of getting a straight flush with
that number of hands is, while not expected, certainly not wholly
unexpected either.
As far as future play, I would certainly feel comfortable
maintaining that level ($500 daily sessions) for future trips. As I
said, my average trip bankroll is around 2.5K, average trip length
2.5 days, so if my intent is to split my time/bankroll between table
and VP play, that corresponds to (on average) $500/day each. As the
amount of trips I'm able to take, and my enjoyment of said trips,
increases, I'm slowly increasing my overall bankroll by about $500
month (accounting for losses). I would like to build a relationship
with Harrah's, and intend to use this forum and others around to try
and figure out how to maximize my offers based on approx 10K-day (or
maybe one 25K day per trip?) coin-in, gradually ramping that up over
time.
Again, thanks for the invaluable insight and taking the time to put
it down!
little_jimmy112 wrote:
Ouch... $600-900/hr is a tough one. I'll probably stay away from
10-play quarters; maybe try and start with 10-play 10c, and (as you
suggested) graduate up to 3-play or possible 5-play quarters.
I'll comment further. Forgive me as I become increasingly more
frenetic I'm on the 5th day of a progressively sleepless jag
induced by the presures of a project deadline / system-migration
frustrations / and other assorted stresses. I see an extended
drinking binge in my near future.
------
I like the idea of the 10c play. Even if you stick with it for your
entire session, you're looking at a very placid 6 hr. run in your
Diamond quest. Problem is availability. I assume you're looking at
the reported machine at Caesars.
The database shows only one on the floor. I can tell you that were I
at Caesars for a stay, I'd be nailing quarter NSUD on that machine
HARD. I have to think that with the accessibility of 5c/10c on the
same multigame machine, that some would resort to casually dropping a
sawbuck on the floor and then booting the active player in their
behind as they bent over to pick it up in order to grab some time on
that machine.
Temper your expectation accordingly.
-----------------------
Jazbo's analysis basically predicts the expected "half-life" of a
bankroll as a function of betting units.
Although I think the "half-life" terminology is a little confusing,
his analysis basically addresses the question, "given a certain
bankroll (in units of bets), at what number of hands played does the
probability of ruin equal 50%?". For a bankroll of 320 bets, 9/6
JoB looks like around 45%.
I'll echo that "confusion" sentiment. Anyone with a basic knowledge
of science is going to stumble over that "half-life" usage.
I once suggested that "LD 50" would be a far more suitable reference
(I love the allusion to a point in play at which 50% of players would
be expected to "bite the dust" ;).
I don't have the attention span to work back through Jazbo's article
to come up with a strong interpretation that fits your situation. I
will say that I think the thresholds you cite are likely to be fraught
with frustration when you hit the casino and target your $18K of
planned play.
-----
Jazbo's article (and that of the Wiz of Odds) yields tremendous
insight into this topic. But practical application to a situation
akin to yours is likely to prove far too academic and esoteric. It's
possible to come up with a solid result, but unlikely that you're
going to have any gut confidence in it.
Seriously, the very best tool by which I've managed a handle on
session volatility is Frugal Video Poker. I suspect you don't have it
in your software arsenal (or, if so, haven't become fully familiar
with it's capabilities). In any case, the return on the modest $40
investment is immense.
Check out: http://frugalgambler.biz/fvp/fvp_home.htm
The beauty is that you can run a trial of "n" hands of play (including
a multiplay option) and view a graphic of the bankroll swings. You
get an immediate snapshot that will give you a strong sense of the
volatility risk you face in any contemplated play. I typically run
something like 100K+ hands in a trial so that I can really measure the
probability of a sharp downturn over a given session.
Unfortunately, the software isn't available for download purchase ...
just by mail. I don't know what your time constraints are, but if
they're tight, I'd arrange to beg, borrow or steal a copy from someone
else.
------------------
While I wont dispute that my expected loss is 3% ($540), that's not
so far off that it scares me terribly. In fact, given that, I'm
tempted to set my session bankroll to $540; thus, if the statistics
play out "as expected" I'll have the perfect bankroll for my
intended play, and for this short-term play it'll come down to luck
(I know, I know... but at the end of the day this IS gambling,
right? ;).
I'll simply remark that you're making a far too insufficient allowance
for interim swings that can be expected to drop you below that
expected $540 loss (absent RF/SF). You set yourself up for possible
early ruin. (I did mention previously that I have a strong
conservative bent towards play, right? -- to the point of a
near-denial of being a gambler
------------------
And you never know... I might even get lucky and hit the SF or RF.
Actually, with that number of hands (14,400), a straight flush isn't
too far outside the realm of possibility; I believe (again from some
of Jazbo's stuff) that the odds of getting a straight flush with
that number of hands is, while not expected, certainly not wholly
unexpected either.
Just an anecdote to consider. I recently tackled a promotion playing
single line JB. I played through about 6700 hands. To my amazement,
I hit 2 SF's! I still finished with a 5% loss, and at one point was
down 7%.
Of course, given my luck this year, I wouldn't measure anyone's
expectation by that experience
-----------------
As far as future play, I would certainly feel comfortable
maintaining that level ($500 daily sessions) for future trips.
Given this, I advise sticking to single line quarter Jacks if you
target anything more than $6K-$7K daily play.
As I said, my average trip bankroll is around 2.5K, average trip
length 2.5 days, so if my intent is to split my time/bankroll
between table and VP play, that corresponds to (on average) $500/day
each. As the amount of trips I'm able to take, and my enjoyment of
said trips, increases, I'm slowly increasing my overall bankroll by
about $500 month (accounting for losses).
I don't know to what extent that this accounts for tolerance for
extended loss streaks, but you're talking about a sufficient trip
frequency and $ commitment that I suggest that you put some firm
numbers on the losses you're willing to sustain over time.
I'll be forthright in suggesting that many initial vp players get
blindsided by the favorable statistics of strong games and don't have
a good cognizance of the downside (and I suspect a good number play
well into "player's remorse" turf in the belief that the numbers will
ultimately turn back in their favor in short order -- we all tend to
be an optimistic bunch ;).
I recognize that you're a seasoned blackjack player and are no
stranger to the risks of the casino. However, it's critical to grasp
that the volatility of vp is distinctly different from that of bj. BJ
results have a short-term distribution that much more closely
approximates a normal distribution. Video poker, with a payout that
is considerably biased by the return concentrated in infrequent hands
such as SF/RF, is much more vulnerable to extended sour play.
I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade here. But there are some
realities that are critical to grasp for someone who's looking to jump
in as aggressively as you indicate.
-----------------
I would like to build a relationship
with Harrah's, and intend to use this forum and others around to try
and figure out how to maximize my offers based on approx 10K-day (or
maybe one 25K day per trip?) coin-in, gradually ramping that up over
time.Again, thanks for the invaluable insight and taking the time to put
it down!
I'm pleased the feedback has been helpful (and this exchange has been
an invaluable diversion for me!). I'll remark that I put forward my
comments with considerably greater humility than suggested by the
force with which a make my assertions. Take all this with a grain of
salt.
I tend toward cautionary statements. There's more than sufficent
ebullience to be found in other quarters to stoke enthusiasm for the
game. My goal is to extend a tone yielding as strong an appreciation
for the intermittant play downside as the avid anticipation with which
most (including myself) pass through the casino doors -- leading
toward a measure of satisfaction with the experience, no matter the
play outcome.
My wife (Bev) will confirm your likely impression at this point -- I'm
really full of "it"!
- Harry
<<Unfortunately, the software isn't available for download purchase ...
just by mail. I don't know what your time constraints are, but if
they're tight, I'd arrange to beg, borrow or steal a copy from someone
else.>>
If you order FVP from the Website below, we ship out the same day and do offer Priority mail.
________________________________________
Jean $�ott
Frugal resources available at
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz