Best # of lines to play?

[jt417552]

In a message dated 5/11/2007 12:38:32 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
SMBAYDP@aol.com writes:

About 6 months ago at Caesars, my partner was dealt 4 to the Royal on
a 10x Super Times Pay quarter machine. He called me over from another
bank, and by the time I arrived, there were around 10 people watching
as he hit the draw button.

Yup, completely shut out...

.........
Years ago I did a crude spreadsheet simulation for patterns of hitting the
1/47 Royal card if drawing to 4/Royal. In column A I copy pasted an X every 47
rows down to 10 rows. In column B [Denny will love this] I put the "Rand()"
function and copied it down 10k rows. After sorting to column B the longest
miss was about 256. 256 draws with no Royal. As a result I'm never disappointed
if a 4/Royal draw misses.

I've suggested to Bob Dancer that he put up a long roll of paper on the wall
of his classes showing the long term in video poker. It would have marks for
average Royals, Quads, etc, maybe for several games.
J "No Tilt" T

************************************** See what's free at http://www.aol.com.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Harry_Porter]

jt417552 wrote:

Years ago I did a crude spreadsheet simulation for patterns of
hitting the 1/47 Royal card if drawing to 4/Royal. In column A I copy
pasted an X every 47 rows down to 10 rows. In column B [Denny will
love this] I put the "Rand()" function and copied it down 10k rows.
After sorting to column B the longest miss was about 256. 256 draws
with no Royal. As a result I'm never disappointed if a 4/Royal draw
misses.

The underlying stats disclose a rather perverse nature at work -- one
that inevitably will lead most players to feel like they're not
getting their share of RF completions ...

As you'd expect, you look for 1 in 47 holds to come through on
average. But the median point (the point at which half of your hits
occur before and half after) is at 32 holds.

It doesn't take much thought to realize that the reason for the
discrepancy is those occasions where you suffer a lengthly drought,
creating a long "tail" beyond 32 holds, so things on the whole average
out at the expected 47 holds.

That logic notwithstanding, it's going to be one's general experience
that sometime around 32 holds you expect to finally hit on the 4 card
hold. About the time that you merely have waited things out to the
statistically "expected" 47 hold average you're going to feel like the
machines are holding out on you.

I put this out as just one example of the many ways in which the
vagaries of vp can lead you into a distorted view of what to expect
(and why we're often tempted to play in a manner contrary to what the
"math" suggests is optimal).

btw, in a non-Joker game such as Jacks or Deuces, you hold 4 cards to
the RF once every 2825 hands (about once every 3 hours for speedier
players ... 2 hours for the demons on meth). So, it's gonna be once
in 133K hands on average that you snag that "fish in a barrel" RF ...
but 50% of the time you'll have it in your paws before 90K.

- Harry

[rgmustain]

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

The underlying stats disclose a rather perverse nature at work --

one

that inevitably will lead most players to feel like they're not
getting their share of RF completions ...

As you'd expect, you look for 1 in 47 holds to come through on
average. But the median point (the point at which half of your hits
occur before and half after) is at 32 holds.

It doesn't take much thought to realize that the reason for the
discrepancy is those occasions where you suffer a lengthly drought,
creating a long "tail" beyond 32 holds, so things on the whole

average

out at the expected 47 holds.

That logic notwithstanding, it's going to be one's general

experience

that sometime around 32 holds you expect to finally hit on the 4

card

hold. About the time that you merely have waited things out to the
statistically "expected" 47 hold average you're going to feel like

the

machines are holding out on you.

I put this out as just one example of the many ways in which the
vagaries of vp can lead you into a distorted view of what to expect
(and why we're often tempted to play in a manner contrary to what

the

"math" suggests is optimal).

btw, in a non-Joker game such as Jacks or Deuces, you hold 4 cards

to

the RF once every 2825 hands (about once every 3 hours for speedier
players ... 2 hours for the demons on meth). So, it's gonna be once
in 133K hands on average that you snag that "fish in a barrel"

RF ...

but 50% of the time you'll have it in your paws before 90K.

Last year I hit 5 in 362 tries. One long 200 attempt drought followed
by a back-back hit (2 hours apart).

This year my wife and I are 0-238. When one finally does hit I hope
the 1-32 takes over real fast

These kind of numbers support exactly what Harry is saying. Expect a
few long droughts AND several hits sooner than expected.

Dick