just a reminder about bankrolls.
In the last 10 sessions (about 30 hours of play), with only 1 being
positive.
I am down 2465 betting units, that is $3081 for a quarter player.
I am only playing 99.8% to 101% games, that is why you have to be
able to handle the ups and downs, and have a proper bankroll.
bankroll
jimnkelli wrote:
just a reminder about bankrolls.
In the last 10 sessions (about 30 hours of play), with only 1 being
positive.
I am down 2465 betting units, that is $3081 for a quarter player.
Sorry to hear that, but hopefully your luck will change. The really sorry part is that your chances of winning, beginning right now, are the same as the folks who are well ahead of the game.
That's a really ugly run you're having. That exceeds a 10% sustained loss, playing at average speed. I know you weren't playing JoB, but in terms of JoB-9/6, that's the equivalent of playing 24,000 hands with no Royal (no surprise), no STFL (also not surprising, but overdue), no quads (56 cycles with no quads is VERY ugly), and topping off all of that with about 10% fewer FH's and FL's than would be expected (not remarkable, but coupled with the rest -- devastating). That is pretty much the formula that I've used to predict the worst case scenario that I might face someday (although it's obviously _possible_ to get much uglier); we had a pretty good thread which discussed that. Your run is absolutely horrible, and you have my sympathy.
This is precisely why all of the criticism against recreational players using short-coin is bunk. There are no guarantees, even when playing a very advantage game. I play for recreation with money I can afford to lose. When an appreciable portion of my session-stake (what I take for just that visit) is prematurely gone because of a run of remarkably bad luck, I switch to short-coin so that I can still enjoy the time I have remaining to play at the casino. It's either that or just sit around and watch the other folks that I've come with, or expect them to leave early. My attitude has always been to be prepared to _spend_ my stake, not as an investment toward an eventual long-term reward of a refund from a Royal (which I _hope_ will eventually happen, but is never guaranteed), but rather I view it as the very reasonable _price_ to be paid for the fun, free drinks, very nice comped meals, and free overnight stay in a reasonably nice room. I have always viewed my losses as money well spent for _recreation_, even if I never hit the Royals to get most of it back. If I do hit a Royal and I happen to be playing full-coin at the time (which I try to do most of the time now), it will be a bonanza and I can then think of my overall winnings in terms of the hourly wages that I have earned as a professional gambler 
... but even if I happen to be only playing short-coin when it happens, well, it will have still been worth it, the short-coin Royal is still money and better than any other short-coin hand, and it hasn't diminished in the least bit my chances of hitting another Royal using that jack-pot to resume playing full-coin.
Anyway, before you start or anyone else starts chasing your losses with even more money, just remember that long-term expectations aren't assured, even when you play a very long time. In other words, don't mortgage your house to chase those losses, but if you can happened to afford to continue on and enjoy doing it, then chances are that you will come back if you are skillfully playing an advantage game. Good luck.
Bill Velek
Anyway, before you start or anyone else starts chasing your losses
with
even more money, just remember that long-term expectations aren't
assured, even when you play a very long time. In other words,
don't
mortgage your house to chase those losses, but if you can happened
to
afford to continue on and enjoy doing it, then chances are that
you will
come back if you are skillfully playing an advantage game. Good
luck.
Bill Velek
thanks for the kind words Bill, on a upnote I can report that today
I did get back 100 units, not exactly a winfall but I will gladly
take that over what has been happening. We have had a good year so
far and the loses arent terminal, but they certainly do hurt,
hopefully we (my wife and I) have changed tracks back to the winning
side. Like you pointed out, just becasue you have won/lost the last
5 or 10 times out has no indication of the next time. You just have
the ride the rollercoaster to where it takes you and think about the
long term.
Jim
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bill Velek <billvelek@a...> wrote: