I've looked everywhere and can't find a satisfactory answer to this question. I'm a recreational player, and play 9/6 10-line Jacks occasionally. Let's assume a return of 100% for simplicity's sake. What's a reasonable bankroll to play this game? 3x the royal pay? 4x? 10x?
what do you mean by "occasionally"? for some people, they visit vegas
a few times a year and play a few hours, and that's "occasional" play.
others are locals who play once or twice a week for five hours at a
stretch and consider that "occasional" play.
and what do you mean by "reasonable bankroll"? if you're playing a
breakeven game, you can't be asking about long-term risk of ruin,
since it will be 100% for any finite bankroll. maybe you're asking
"how much do i need to probably not run out of money for my amount of
play?" in which case we need to know what you mean by "probably".
here's a figure that might help. suppose you're going to play a total
of 200 hours, at 500 rounds per hour. that's 100000 rounds, or one
million result hands. standard deviation for each result hand is about
six bets; standard deviation for a million hands is a thousand times
that, or 6000 bets. if you're playing quarters, that's $7500. you have
about a 16% chance of finishing your 200 hours down more than that. if
you want 5%, it's about 2/3 more than that, or $12500.
keep in mind that you actually need more than that, because those
computations assume that if you're down $7500 or $12500 or whatever
you'll keep playing and have a chance to get back. if you're going to
quit if you're down that much, your odds of having to quit will be
higher.
also keep in mind that you do not play perfectly, and your error rate
needs to be included in whatever estimate you make of the game EV.
but yeah, ten royals is probably reasonable-ish for a recreational
player. it's best if you have the ability to drop down in stakes if
you get low on bankroll, of course.
Can I really expect to get a royal every 4,000 spins (40,000/10)? There is something wrong with that analysis, isn't there?
yes, there is; sometimes you have multiple royals in a round, so the
frequency with which you have at least one is lower than that. on
average you'll have a royal about every 4417 spins.
cheers,
five
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On Sun, Mar 21, 2010 at 10:41 AM, shloemoejs99 <shloemoejs99@yahoo.com> wrote: