I am going to Vegas saturday and wonder if any of you math wizzes out
there could help me figure out how much money I need to avoid going
broke playing 8000 hands of quarter 9/6 JOB. A 5% ROR would be
tolerable. Thanks
bankroll required for 3 day trip to vegas
$10,000.01
You will still have .01 left if you lose every hand
ANYONE.... How can you figure a ROR on a negative game?
···
----- Original Message ----- From: "vpearlkc" <vpearlkc@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2005 2:27 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] bankroll required for 3 day trip to vegas
I am going to Vegas saturday and wonder if any of you math wizzes out there could help me figure out how much money I need to avoid going broke playing 8000 hands of quarter 9/6 JOB. A 5% ROR would be tolerable. Thanks
vpearlkc wrote:
I am going to Vegas saturday and wonder if any of you math wizzes out
there could help me figure out how much money I need to avoid going
broke playing 8000 hands of quarter 9/6 JOB. A 5% ROR would be
tolerable. Thanks
This is the type of question that the vp probability distribution
program recently uploaded to the files section might solve.
For myself, unfortunately, additional files are required from the MS
Office install disk than what I installed during my basic install, and
that disk appears to be on indefinite loan.
In any case, working from my own trip experience, for Jacks I'd
suggest a 7% loss bankroll ($700, maybe $800 to be safe) would put you
in good stead within the margin that you specify.
- Harry
The game can become positive if there's sufficient cashback. The Wizard of Odds has tables that I use for assessing ROR and bankroll. Here's a link - http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/appendix1.html
Of course, these tables are valid over the "long term" and don't really apply to a $10k session.
Lainie
···
From: "ednar" <ednar@kconline.com>
ANYONE.... How can you figure a ROR on a negative game?
_________________________________________________________________
Express yourself instantly with MSN Messenger! Download today - it's FREE! http://messenger.msn.click-url.com/go/onm00200471ave/direct/01/
right. And no cashback was mentioned
···
----- Original Message ----- From: "Lainie Wolf" <LainieWolf@hotmail.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2005 4:26 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] bankroll required for 3 day trip to vegas
The game can become positive if there's sufficient cashback. The Wizard of
Odds has tables that I use for assessing ROR and bankroll. Here's a link -
http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/appendix1.htmlOf course, these tables are valid over the "long term" and don't really
apply to a $10k session.Lainie
ednar wrote:
ANYONE.... How can you figure a ROR on a negative game? ...
... right. And no cashback was mentioned
The probability of depleting $x during some point over the course of y
hands of vp (ROR) can be calculated for any game, positive or negative.
It's the case that when playing a negative game the probability of
depleting any sized bankroll is 100% if you play through an infinite
number of hands. Thus, any negative game has a long-term 100% ROR for
any sized bankroll.
- Harry
ok got it. Thanks. Duh on me....
That made sense.
···
----- Original Message ----- From: "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@verizon.net>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2005 5:56 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: bankroll required for 3 day trip to vegas
ednar wrote:
ANYONE.... How can you figure a ROR on a negative game? ...
... right. And no cashback was mentionedThe probability of depleting $x during some point over the course of y
hands of vp (ROR) can be calculated for any game, positive or negative.It's the case that when playing a negative game the probability of
depleting any sized bankroll is 100% if you play through an infinite
number of hands. Thus, any negative game has a long-term 100% ROR for
any sized bankroll.- Harry
vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
Yahoo! Groups Links
I've been playing around with some simulations of returns for
arbitrary numbers of hands of any single line game. My methods (Monte
Carlo) were originally quite different from what Mr. cdfsrule uses,
but I've tried his approach too with very similar results. I'll try to
write up more details later.
Anyway, for 8,000 hands of single line 9/6 JOB I estimate there's
approximately 95% probability of a total return greater than about
-2290 units. So, $575 ought to do it.
That's actually slightly optimistic because there's always a slight
risk that you could blow your $575 bankroll before playing 8,000
hands. My calculation completely ignores gambler's ruin. It also
ignores cashback.
Some additional numbers: the 1, 10, 50, 90, and 99% quantiles are
-2870, -1975, -755, 2970, and 6885 units. There's about a 28%
probability of finishing ahead after 8,000 hands.
These numbers are accurate to ~2 1/2 significant digits. Of course
these are statistical computations, so YMMV. Good luck.
Mike Peck
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpearlkc" <vpearlkc@y...> wrote:
I am going to Vegas saturday and wonder if any of you math wizzes out
there could help me figure out how much money I need to avoid going
broke playing 8000 hands of quarter 9/6 JOB. A 5% ROR would be
tolerable. Thanks
Thanks for the great analysis. It sounds like a grand should be
enough to get me through my 3 day weekend with a side trip to the
rampart to play cash king checkers and nickle 10 play JOB and, if my
luck holds, a trip to Sams Town for some dime multistrike. Also
sorry for my incorrect use of the term ROR, it seems to have caused
some controversy. I have only been a member of the group a couple of
months and vpFREE is great resource.
> I am going to Vegas saturday and wonder if any of you math
wizzes out
> there could help me figure out how much money I need to avoid
going
> broke playing 8000 hands of quarter 9/6 JOB. A 5% ROR would be
> tolerable. ThanksI've been playing around with some simulations of returns for
arbitrary numbers of hands of any single line game. My methods
(Monte
Carlo) were originally quite different from what Mr. cdfsrule uses,
but I've tried his approach too with very similar results. I'll
try to
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Peck" <mpeck1@i...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpearlkc" <vpearlkc@y...> wrote:
write up more details later.Anyway, for 8,000 hands of single line 9/6 JOB I estimate there's
approximately 95% probability of a total return greater than about
-2290 units. So, $575 ought to do it.That's actually slightly optimistic because there's always a slight
risk that you could blow your $575 bankroll before playing 8,000
hands. My calculation completely ignores gambler's ruin. It also
ignores cashback.Some additional numbers: the 1, 10, 50, 90, and 99% quantiles are
-2870, -1975, -755, 2970, and 6885 units. There's about a 28%
probability of finishing ahead after 8,000 hands.These numbers are accurate to ~2 1/2 significant digits. Of course
these are statistical computations, so YMMV. Good luck.Mike Peck
vpearlkc wrote:
Thanks for the great analysis. It sounds like a grand should be
enough to get me through my 3 day weekend with a side trip to the
rampart to play cash king checkers and nickle 10 play JOB and, if my
luck holds, a trip to Sams Town for some dime multistrike. Also
sorry for my incorrect use of the term ROR, it seems to have caused
some controversy. I have only been a member of the group a couple of
months and vpFREE is great resource.
You correctly applied ROR. The discussion you note differed only in
use of the phrase for long-term play (in this case, theoretically
eternal) vs. a defined, relatively short-term, number of hands.
I caution you modestly in taking comfort with a 5% ROR guideline for
your play. True, only one out of 20 trips will see you fall short in
your desired play, but more than half the trips that result in
breaking your trip stake will likely end up doing so before you have
even half your desired play in. Depending on how flexible your plans
are, that's a risk level that cause many to plan a greater stake with
higher comfort.
On the other hand, your suggested $1000 gives you much more slack than
5% and, if you don't mind sacrificing the Rampart side trip in the
event of a disasterous trip, you should be very secure in your base
play plan.
I've always wondered if other players are like me. I bankroll myself
for hellish play, but on those occasions where I hit such a bad
streak, I never have the zeal or motivation to play through it as far
as that bankroll could take me -- long strolls and the pool suddenly
become much more appealing and the room safe (or cage a/c) are never
depleted 
- H.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:
I think I have the same tendencies. If I got only 1/3 of the way to
my play goal and already lost 2/3 of my bankroll I would hike over
to the El Cortez and play $3.00 blackjack for free beers and give up
on the comped room. After all if we can afford $95.00 for a
commanders palace jazz brunch we can afford $100.00 for a hotel stay.
You correctly applied ROR. The discussion you note differed only
in
use of the phrase for long-term play (in this case, theoretically
eternal) vs. a defined, relatively short-term, number of hands.I caution you modestly in taking comfort with a 5% ROR guideline
for
your play. True, only one out of 20 trips will see you fall short
in
your desired play, but more than half the trips that result in
breaking your trip stake will likely end up doing so before you
have
even half your desired play in. Depending on how flexible your
plans
are, that's a risk level that cause many to plan a greater stake
with
higher comfort.
On the other hand, your suggested $1000 gives you much more slack
than
5% and, if you don't mind sacrificing the Rampart side trip in the
event of a disasterous trip, you should be very secure in your base
play plan.I've always wondered if other players are like me. I bankroll
myself
for hellish play, but on those occasions where I hit such a bad
streak, I never have the zeal or motivation to play through it as
far
as that bankroll could take me -- long strolls and the pool
suddenly
become much more appealing and the room safe (or cage a/c) are
never
···
depleted
- H.
For what it's worth, Harry, I bankroll and limit session losses,
very much as you do !
I normally play 8-10 hours per day (sometimes more) at 600-800 hands
per hour, depending on what game I'm playing. I vary in denom.
from .25 single line and 3 play, to .50 & 1.00 single line.
I alot $1000 per DAY for playing bankroll. However, I play much more
volatile games than JOB. The only JOB in which I indulge, is 3
play. O/W, I play some variation of deuces, FPJW or 10/7DB, 10/6 or
9/6DDB. Sometimes I even play MORE volatile bonus games such as
Triple Bonus, KB.
Also, as you state, if my bankroll is disappearing very quickly, and
it looks like a 6:00pm bedtime is in my future, I will also stop
playing and take a walk, have something to eat, or watch TV for
awhile. Usually, I come back somewhat refreshed, less depressed, and
occasionally, the little black cloud which settled over my head, has
disipated as well.
-Babe-
···
-------------------------------------------------
- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:
I've always wondered if other players are like me. I bankroll
myself
for hellish play, but on those occasions where I hit such a bad
streak, I never have the zeal or motivation to play through it as
far
as that bankroll could take me -- long strolls and the pool suddenly
become much more appealing and the room safe (or cage a/c) are never
depleted
- H.
VPEARLKC.
Just to make sure that I do NOT discourage you in any way, nor make you think I was attacking you. I just wanted to say that my comments about ROR/etc were not intended to be "at" you. I was merely trying to figure out the correct utilization of the term myself in relationship to games under 100%. Sometimes words we type do not "sound" quite the way we like ....
I wish you all the best in your VP.
Ednar
···
----- Original Message ----- From: "vpearlkc" <vpearlkc@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, September 15, 2005 5:38 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: bankroll required for 3 day trip to vegas
Thanks for the great analysis. It sounds like a grand should be
enough to get me through my 3 day weekend with a side trip to the
rampart to play cash king checkers and nickle 10 play JOB and, if my
luck holds, a trip to Sams Town for some dime multistrike. Also
sorry for my incorrect use of the term ROR, it seems to have caused
some controversy. I have only been a member of the group a couple of
months and vpFREE is great resource.
Harry. I look at bankroll for .0025 ROR and tell myself.... Ok this is what I need. But long before I even hit 12.5% ROR I am thinking about quitting. I hate to lose.
SNIP
···
----- Original Message ----- From: "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@verizon.net>
I've always wondered if other players are like me. I bankroll myself
for hellish play, but on those occasions where I hit such a bad
streak, I never have the zeal or motivation to play through it as far
as that bankroll could take me -- long strolls and the pool suddenly
become much more appealing and the room safe (or cage a/c) are never
depleted- H.
ednar wrote:
Harry. I look at bankroll for .0025 ROR and tell myself.... Ok this
is what I need. But long before I even hit 12.5% ROR I am thinking
about quitting. I hate to lose.
Thanks for this and the comments from others. I don't feel nearly the
squeamish player I did before
Actually, I think we likely also share one other trait -- no matter
how much we bring to the casino and how great the loss, we take
pleasure that we managed to have the "discipline" not to lose it all!
Shades of stetching the budget thin on a pure luxury item and priding
ourselves that we didn't go for the most expensive item on the rack ;).
- H.
Here are RoR results for 8000 Hands of FP JoB, 5 coints bet:
Stake RoR(8000) in frational units
100 0.97045
500 0.826902
1000 0.593101
1500 0.345055
2000 0.153866
2500 0.0502667
3000 0.011598
5000 5.61871e-07
As you can see, you'll need about 2500 coins. In quaters this is $625.
I computed these results using PDFs, and, unless I made a horrible error, I beleive they are
accurate to at least 3 sig figs. BTW, I also compared my results to what Jazbo has
published and we agree exaclty for the cases that are in common.
Granted, one could use a monte carlo approach also, but IMHO, that would take many,
many realizations (millions?) to reach this level of accuracy. Moreover, one must keep track
of the entire 8000 hands series in order to compute the RoR. That is, its impossible (as
noted correctly by Michael) to determine to RoR by looking at the ending loss after 8000
hands.
Conclusion:
$625 units for 5% RoR(8000 hands).
Michael's $575 admittedly "optimistic" answer is quite close, within 10%. Nice.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Peck" <mpeck1@i...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpearlkc" <vpearlkc@y...> wrote:
> I am going to Vegas saturday and wonder if any of you math wizzes out
> there could help me figure out how much money I need to avoid going
> broke playing 8000 hands of quarter 9/6 JOB. A 5% ROR would be
> tolerable. ThanksI've been playing around with some simulations of returns for
arbitrary numbers of hands of any single line game. My methods (Monte
Carlo) were originally quite different from what Mr. cdfsrule uses,
but I've tried his approach too with very similar results. I'll try to
write up more details later.Anyway, for 8,000 hands of single line 9/6 JOB I estimate there's
approximately 95% probability of a total return greater than about
-2290 units. So, $575 ought to do it.That's actually slightly optimistic because there's always a slight
risk that you could blow your $575 bankroll before playing 8,000
hands. My calculation completely ignores gambler's ruin. It also
ignores cashback.Some additional numbers: the 1, 10, 50, 90, and 99% quantiles are
-2870, -1975, -755, 2970, and 6885 units. There's about a 28%
probability of finishing ahead after 8,000 hands.These numbers are accurate to ~2 1/2 significant digits. Of course
these are statistical computations, so YMMV. Good luck.Mike Peck
I am going to Vegas saturday and wonder if any of you math wizzes
out
there could help me figure out how much money I need to avoid going
broke playing 8000 hands of quarter 9/6 JOB. A 5% ROR would be
tolerable. Thanks
I play 9/6 JOB machines and actually like them, but until you nail a
RF it will drain your bankroll, in Las Vegas you don't need to play VP
that is lower than 100%, I would suggest playing 10/7 double bonus,
even if you don't get a RF which is hard to do, the 4 of a kind will
usually keep you solvent, if the casino has both 9/6 JOB and 10/7 DB
I think the better choice would be 10/7 DB! I would also buy some
strategy cards (SH, BD or DP) and carry them with you and when you
find a 100% VP machine that you don't know the correct play, just
whip it out and it will tell you what the best cards are to hold, you
can stop at the gamblers warehouse and pick up some strategy cards.
I always take more money than I need just in case, but a grand should
be enough if you just play single line two bit machines. The only
reason I visit Las Vegas is because they have 100% VP machines, if
they didn't, I live closer to Atlantic City and would go
there!I'm not a math wizz but have experience playing VP.
Good luck in Las Vegas
Al
Ok, this might be considered beating a dead horse, but oh well...
Take a look at the graph for a session stake of 320 bet units at
Jazbo's page:
http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/halflife.html
Here survivability = 1- RoR.
As you can see, from a standpoint of RoR ONLY, JoB is the preferred
game over 10/7 DB even though it has a lower EVat least that is true
for a modest # of hands. That said, as the number of hands increases
enough, DB becomes the prefered game. (Recall For your case of 5% RoR
at 8000 hands, you need 500 bet units, see message # 49003; I haven't
computed the DB curve for 500 units, but I will someday. Until I do,
I'll assume that it is similar to Jazbo's 320 units).
If you consider the likelihood of having a certain winning session (%
win above a certain $ value) ALONG with RoR, you may very well find
that 10/7 DB is a better game for YOU. Basically, for 10/7 DB (at
low/moderate number of hands) you may decide to accept a higher RoR
in exchange for a higher chance of a big (or any decent) win. So
here we have a case where the effect of a larger volatility
(variance) overwhelms a better EV (for a small number of hands).
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rehtuaxela" <jacks1eyed@n...> wrote:
if the casino has both 9/6 JOB and 10/7 DB
I think the better choice would be 10/7 DB!
I normally prescribe to the general rule of thumb Bob Dancer posted
years ago. 3-5x a royal to have a low % ROR. 3x is good for a game
like deuces because of the variance,however, 5x is good for a game
like DB or DDb because of the extreme variance. I guess if you were
playing full pay loose deuces you would want 6x the royal.
In the orignal question the poster was going to play JOB so I would
think 3-4x would be acceptable. This is all just my opinion.
I would never suggest someone play DB instead of JOB unless I knew
they had practiced it to the point where theie ER rate was somewhere
around 99.90 or more. I got the impression that the orignal poster
just knew JOB.
Ok, this might be considered beating a dead horse, but oh well...
Take a look at the graph for a session stake of 320 bet units at
Jazbo's page:
http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/halflife.htmlHere survivability = 1- RoR.
As you can see, from a standpoint of RoR ONLY, JoB is the
preferred
game over 10/7 DB even though it has a lower EVat least that is
true
for a modest # of hands. That said, as the number of hands
increases
enough, DB becomes the prefered game. (Recall For your case of 5%
RoR
at 8000 hands, you need 500 bet units, see message # 49003; I
haven't
computed the DB curve for 500 units, but I will someday. Until I
do,
I'll assume that it is similar to Jazbo's 320 units).
If you consider the likelihood of having a certain winning session
(%
win above a certain $ value) ALONG with RoR, you may very well
find
that 10/7 DB is a better game for YOU. Basically, for 10/7 DB (at
low/moderate number of hands) you may decide to accept a higher
RoR
in exchange for a higher chance of a big (or any decent) win. So
here we have a case where the effect of a larger volatility
(variance) overwhelms a better EV (for a small number of hands).--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rehtuaxela" <jacks1eyed@n...>
wrote:
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "cdfsrule" <groups.yahoo@v...> wrote:
> if the casino has both 9/6 JOB and 10/7 DB
> I think the better choice would be 10/7 DB!
8000 hands is not enough for a royal or straight flush, so subtract
them from the expected return and variance:
new er = 99.5% -2% -0.5% = 97% (3% average loss)
new variance = 19.5 - 15.8 - 0.3 = 3.4
average loss for 8000 hands of 5 coin quarter job = 8000 x $1.25 x 3%
= $300
standard deviation = $1.25 x sqrt(8000 x 3.4) = $206
5% ror = 1.64 standard deviations
5% ror = 1.64 x $206 = $338
total = $300 + $338 = $638
that's an estimate, you can get an exact number from:
http://www.lotspiech.com/GamblersRuin.html
for stake=$638, retire=$2000, 8000 hands of JOB, I get:
busted (-$640)=4.2%
-$640 to -$400=16%
-$400 to -$160=34%
-$160 to $80=21%
$80 to $320=4.6%
$320 to $560=1%
$560 to $800=4.2%
$800 to $1040=7.1%
$1040 to $1280=3.9%
$1280 to $1520=0.77%
$1520 to $1760=0.12%
$1760 to $2000=0.15%
retired ($2000)=1.6%
> I am going to Vegas saturday and wonder if any of you math wizzes
out
> there could help me figure out how much money I need to avoid
going
> broke playing 8000 hands of quarter 9/6 JOB. A 5% ROR would be
> tolerable. ThanksI play 9/6 JOB machines and actually like them, but until you nail
a
RF it will drain your bankroll, in Las Vegas you don't need to play
VP
that is lower than 100%, I would suggest playing 10/7 double bonus,
even if you don't get a RF which is hard to do, the 4 of a kind
will
usually keep you solvent, if the casino has both 9/6 JOB and 10/7
DB
I think the better choice would be 10/7 DB! I would also buy some
strategy cards (SH, BD or DP) and carry them with you and when you
find a 100% VP machine that you don't know the correct play, just
whip it out and it will tell you what the best cards are to hold,
you
can stop at the gamblers warehouse and pick up some strategy cards.
I always take more money than I need just in case, but a grand
should
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rehtuaxela" <jacks1eyed@n...> wrote:
be enough if you just play single line two bit machines. The only
reason I visit Las Vegas is because they have 100% VP machines, if
they didn't, I live closer to Atlantic City and would go
there!I'm not a math wizz but have experience playing VP.
Good luck in Las VegasAl