vpFREE2 Forums

Bankroll question

#1

It would probably be an interesting poll about how many of us use risk-of-ruin calculations and concerns when we go on a trip or casino visits, vs. how many of us just play with whatever we can afford to lose. I've always believed putting too much thought into something that's fun is the best route to Killjoy.
I'm not a professional, and not many are.

···

----- Reply message -----
From: "what7do7you7want@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question
Date: Thu, Jan 22, 2015 2:43 AM

WTF???

Anybody worried about ROR should not play???

Exact OPPOSITE is correct.

Anybody NOT worried about ROR should not play.

Now maybe you play on vacation with a set loss limit so ROR is 0 in

terms of your overall financial situation

Or maybe you play low compared to you bankroll so you play with a safe

ROR without thinking about it, but ANY gambler should be VERY

concerned about ROR.

Making a play with, for example, a 20% ROR is more or less crazy.

even if you have a big edge. Professionals would never do it and

even most others know better. The remaining few are most certainly

going to need to consider GA in their future because that kind of ROR

will get you if you do it very often.

QZ

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bornloser1537@...> wrote :

I think anyone worried about going broke or that risk of ruin should not be playing in the first place.

I like that comment. So true. So true.

But, I do like the risk of ruin numbers to let me know how much money I need to bring with me for a particular trip.

Other than that, if I have the money, I make the trip and have fun playing video poker.

..... bl

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

vtroy216 asked: "It would probably be an interesting poll about how many of us use risk-of-ruin calculations and concerns when we go on a trip or casino visits, vs. how many of us just play with whatever we can afford to lose."

I play with whatever I can afford to lose, but I use the Kelly criterion to tell me what I can afford to lose. If you know the betsize, edge, and variance of a gamble or "investment", you can estimate the Kelly bankroll in your head (betsize x variance / edge). That's the reserve, you can leave that in the bank, any EXTRA amount you can afford to gamble with. And that's the bleeding edge, if you want to be more conservative, double that amount.

Example: I find a dollar FPDW machine. Sweet. Estimated Kelly bankroll is $5 x 26 / .0076 = $17,105. My current bankroll is $20,000, the good news is I can play. I take $2,895 (the amount my bankroll is over the Kelly bankroll) out in cash and start playing, unfortunately my luck is bad and after playing for some time the $2,895 (the amount I can afford to lose from my bankroll) is gone. I stop, I can no longer afford to play. Maybe I can make some money selling this machine to someone? Or work some deal with someone who has a bigger bankroll?

If you want to be slightly more sophisticated, you can calculate Kelly numbers in advance, for FPDW the Kelly number is 2925, multiply by the betsize, in this case $5, to get the more accurate $14,625. Jazbo has some more numbers and a calculator here:

Kelly Betting for Video Poker http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html

Kelly Betting for Video Poker http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html 9/6 DB/DJ 9/6 Double Bonus with Double Jackpot. This game is appearing in Atlantic City. It is slightly positive even without cash back, but beware the variance! Pick'em

View on www.jazbo.com http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
Preview by Yahoo

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]