Hoping I can get a "back of the envelope" guess on this from someone.
What sort of bankroll (measured in Royals) would I need to be comfortable playing Spin Poker NSUD with 0.8% cash back? Assume minimal errors (99.95% of EV captured). I know I need less bankroll for SP than comparable per spin single-line wagers. Four royals? Five? Seven? Two APs I've asked ballparked it at five royals but I know some of the folks here can calculate Mars rocket trajectories on their fingers.
Thanks in advance.
There are those on this forum equipped to give you a fine-edged estimate … not me. I’ll give you a quickie “back of the envelope” scribble:
A 5 RF bankroll was typically the number put out for FPDW with .2% cb … roughly a 1% edge.
Cut the edge in half (NSUD + .8%), and switch to the more volatile SP format (line interdependencies definitely boost play variance), and off the cuff I’d be inclined to suggest 4x the bankroll (20 RF). Mind you, I’m talking in terms of the base denomination, not the equivalent single-line wager.
So, for $.25 Sp, I’d be inclined to suggest $20k (with a 1%-2% ROR in mind).
I’ll be curious what the serious numbers folk (like Dunbar) come back with.
My thinking is that 20 royals would be about right for 10 play, but I think spinpoker has more variance than 10 play. Maybe 30 royals for spinpoker.
It’s been my anecdotal experience (roughly 75,000 spins) that Spin Poker has lower variance than 10-play. And I believe the reason is how the draw cards are selected. Each drawn card can appear multiple times in its own column, but cannot appear in other columns once it appears. So when holding a pair and drawing three, the three selections in the final column are selected from as few as 41 choices (rather than the 45 each individual line would have in 10-play).
Yes, when drawing things like RF4, the covariance is large since any hit represents 2,3 or 5 Royals depending on the line placement. But there are a lot more times that you draw to a pair or three of a kind that SP’s draw method has a smoothing effect on the results.
I may be a blind man describing an elephant. But that’s what I have seen.
On Jan 16, 2014, at 12:14 PM, <nightoftheiguana2…@…com> wrote:
My thinking is that 20 royals would be about right for 10 play, but I think spinpoker has more variance than 10 play. Maybe 30 royals for spinpoker.
The wizard, as usual, has some info on the topic:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/spin-poker/