vpFREE2 Forums

Bankroll for $ Pick-em

#1

I was wondering what an ideal bankroll for playing dollar pickem in
a typical 3 day trip would be if one was to play about 5 hours a day
at 800 hands per hour.

#2

This is just my opinion, but it does not matter how many hours you
are playing or how many days. A good rule of thumb is 3-5x the
royal. Pickem is fairly safe game so I would go with $12,000 (3x a
normal $1 royal - not a pickem royal) but for Double Bonus I would
suggest $16-$20K because it is a much more difficult game.
However, I know we all have taken risk and played with alot less
bankroll and did okay. Maybe $5-$6K would see you through.
Especially if you can pull out some 4 of a kinds or a straight
flush.

I was wondering what an ideal bankroll for playing dollar pickem

in

a typical 3 day trip would be if one was to play about 5 hours a

day

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ljvp05" <ljvp05@y...> wrote:

at 800 hands per hour.

#3

I believe that a trip bankroll of $4000, would cover you for all but the absolute worst case scenarios.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: ljvp05
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Monday, February 28, 2005 10:34 PM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Bankroll for $ Pick-em

  I was wondering what an ideal bankroll for playing dollar pickem in
  a typical 3 day trip would be if one was to play about 5 hours a day
  at 800 hands per hour.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/curves.html

I was wondering what an ideal bankroll for playing dollar pickem in
a typical 3 day trip would be if one was to play about 5 hours a

day

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ljvp05" <ljvp05@y...> wrote:

at 800 hands per hour.

#5

for more than 5000 hands of pick'em
one standard distribution (68% of results) would be:
+/- sqrt(15 x hands) bets
two standard distributions (95% of results) would be:
+/- 2 x sqrt(15 x hands) bets
three standard distributions (99.7% of results) would be:
+/- 3 x sqrt(15 x hands) bets

hands 1sd_in_bets $1sd_at_quarters(max bet 5)
5,000________274______$342.33
10,000_______387______$484.12
100,000_____1225____$1,530.93
1,000,000___3873____$4,841.23
10,000,000_12247___$15,309.31

for 3 days of 5 hours/day at 800 hands/hour:
2 x sqrt(15 x 3 x 5 x 800) = 849 bets = $4,242.64 at 5 coin dollars
so, a $4,243 bankroll would have a 2.5% risk of ruin

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/curves.html

>
> I was wondering what an ideal bankroll for playing dollar pickem

in

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ljvp05" <ljvp05@y...> wrote:
> a typical 3 day trip would be if one was to play about 5 hours a
day
> at 800 hands per hour.

#6

Thanks so much for your help. I never though of it like that before
but the math makes so much sense.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

for more than 5000 hands of pick'em
one standard distribution (68% of results) would be:
+/- sqrt(15 x hands) bets
two standard distributions (95% of results) would be:
+/- 2 x sqrt(15 x hands) bets
three standard distributions (99.7% of results) would be:
+/- 3 x sqrt(15 x hands) bets

hands 1sd_in_bets $1sd_at_quarters(max bet 5)
5,000________274______$342.33
10,000_______387______$484.12
100,000_____1225____$1,530.93
1,000,000___3873____$4,841.23
10,000,000_12247___$15,309.31

for 3 days of 5 hours/day at 800 hands/hour:
2 x sqrt(15 x 3 x 5 x 800) = 849 bets = $4,242.64 at 5 coin dollars
so, a $4,243 bankroll would have a 2.5% risk of ruin

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
>
> http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/curves.html
>
> >
> > I was wondering what an ideal bankroll for playing dollar

pickem

in
> > a typical 3 day trip would be if one was to play about 5 hours

a

···

> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ljvp05" <ljvp05@y...> wrote:
> day
> > at 800 hands per hour.

#7

Thanks. $4000 turned out to be a great estimate.

I believe that a trip bankroll of $4000, would cover you for all

but the absolute worst case scenarios.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Albert Pearson" <a-p@s...> wrote:

Regards
A.P.

#8

for 3 days of 5 hours/day at 800 hands/hour:

2 x sqrt(15 x 3 x 5 x 800) = 849 bets = $4,242.64 at 5 coin dollars
so, a $4,243 bankroll would have a 2.5% risk of ruin

···

From: "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com>

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So, for us math challenged you are saying this figure will keep you from going broke over the 3 days 97.5% of the time, correct?

SK

#9

I was wondering what an ideal bankroll for playing dollar pickem in
a typical 3 day trip would be if one was to play about 5 hours a

day

at 800 hands per hour.

I usually, buy in for 20 bets (100 credits) and quit at +6 bets (30
credits). Since you want to have a 3 day trip, I would recommend
bringing $300 (3 X $100) for the entire trip. Each day, quit at +30
credits, so you'll be able to win up to $90, or more if you're lucky!

I hope this helps. Replies appreciated.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ljvp05" <ljvp05@y...> wrote:

#10

I usually, buy in for 20 bets (100 credits) and quit at +6 bets (30
credits). Since you want to have a 3 day trip, I would recommend
bringing $300 (3 X $100) for the entire trip. Each day, quit at +30
credits, so you'll be able to win up to $90, or more if you're

lucky!

···

I hope this helps. Replies appreciated.

=========================

If you play much PE, I suggest you buy Bob Dancer's PE book. He has
a chart in the appendix showing results of a 100,000 session
simulation. The losses in the worst 5% of sessions were as follows:

500 hands 460
1000 hands 710
2500 hands 1245
5000 hands 1860
10000 hands 2740

I have run simulations on WinPoker and played a great deal of PE.
There are very few times when 100 units will even get you through 1
hour of play. On 400 hand simulations I ran, over 95% of the
sessions required a bankroll greater than 100 units. When playing, I
break my play into 1 hour sessions. My rule of thumb is a bankroll
of 500 units for the 1 hour session. In actual play and in
simulations, a 100 unit bankroll is way too small for even 1 hour of
play.

Keith

#11

correct, it's two standard deviations, which represents 95% of
possible results, 2.5% of results are worse, 2.5% of results are
better
so, 97.5% of the time you have not gone broke
the formula for a standard deviation as a function of hands played is:
sd=sqrt(variance x hands) bets
but this assumes a normal distribution (bell curve), which is correct
for pick'em at more than 5,000 hands, for other games it's correct for
more than several royal cycles worth of hands (~80,000 for job ...)
see previously cited jazbo article for details

>>for 3 days of 5 hours/day at 800 hands/hour:
>2 x sqrt(15 x 3 x 5 x 800) = 849 bets = $4,242.64 at 5 coin dollars
>so, a $4,243 bankroll would have a 2.5% risk of ruin
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So, for us math challenged you are saying this figure will keep you

from

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "golden bearpa" <stevenb34@h...> wrote:

>From: "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@y...>
going broke over the 3 days 97.5% of the time, correct?

SK

#12

>
> I was wondering what an ideal bankroll for playing dollar pickem

in

> a typical 3 day trip would be if one was to play about 5 hours a
day
> at 800 hands per hour.

I usually, buy in for 20 bets (100 credits) and quit at +6 bets

(30

credits). Since you want to have a 3 day trip, I would recommend
bringing $300 (3 X $100) for the entire trip. Each day, quit at

+30

credits, so you'll be able to win up to $90, or more if you're

lucky!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "djmcosmo" <djmcosmo@y...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ljvp05" <ljvp05@y...> wrote:

I hope this helps. Replies appreciated.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

   I think the boy is on to something here. But will anybody
listen....Nooooooo! Everybody wants to drive to the casino in a used
Yugo, and leave in a Rolls Royce.
   Small wins and losses are just what gambling should be all
about...and nobody gets hurt. Discipline and money management are
the two most most ignored subjects in gambling. We all want to be
BIG SHOTS! There's so much more to do than gamble anywhere you go.
Eat, drink and be merry and save your money for another day.
   Go find some old John Patrick books ("So You Want to be a
Gambler" series)and learn how he does it.

   TM & VP

   "If winning is a state of mind; Nevada sure as hell ain't that
state."
                     --VP Pappy

#13

The validity of this methodology is not the point. The original requestor said that he wanted to play 5 hours a day. There is no way that a 100 credits and quitting
after +6 bets would fulfill that requirement. If you are a gambler and travelling a great distance in order to play you are not going to quit after 10 minutes of action.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: vppappy
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Wednesday, March 02, 2005 8:04 PM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll for $ Pick-em

     I think the boy is on to something here. But will anybody
  listen....Nooooooo! Everybody wants to drive to the casino in a used
  Yugo, and leave in a Rolls Royce.
     Small wins and losses are just what gambling should be all
  about...and nobody gets hurt. Discipline and money management are
  the two most most ignored subjects in gambling. We all want to be
  BIG SHOTS! There's so much more to do than gamble anywhere you go.
  Eat, drink and be merry and save your money for another day.
     Go find some old John Patrick books ("So You Want to be a
  Gambler" series)and learn how he does it.

     TM & VP

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#14

I'm very aware that my bankroll is "smaller" than most. I don't want
to "hang around" too long and let the casino know that I'm
an "advantage player". Also, I like to actually take time to think
about how to play each hand. I use and scan down my strategy chart.
I've seen players buying in for more than I do, playing as fast as
possible (to look like an expert, I suppose), and running out of
money long before I do!
I'm of a "get in, get out" mentallity.

I have run simulations on WinPoker and played a great deal of PE.
There are very few times when 100 units will even get you through 1
hour of play. On 400 hand simulations I ran, over 95% of the
sessions required a bankroll greater than 100 units. When playing,

I

break my play into 1 hour sessions. My rule of thumb is a bankroll
of 500 units for the 1 hour session. In actual play and in
simulations, a 100 unit bankroll is way too small for even 1 hour

of

···

play.

#15

I'm very aware that my bankroll is "smaller" than most.

Most people don't even know what a bankroll is or how important it is.
And, no, contrary to what moe the street hustler told you, your
bankroll is not the wad of bills in your pocket, unless that's
actually all the money you can get your hands on.

I don't want
to "hang around" too long and let the casino know that I'm
an "advantage player".

Hanging around does not make you an advantage player. In fact, if you
play "in and out" the casino is likely to suspect you are up to
something, they certainly won't consider you a loyal customer.

Also, I like to actually take time to think
about how to play each hand. I use and scan down my strategy chart.

Using a strategy chart is quite likely to make the casino think you
are an advantage player. Smarter move would be to practice before you
hit the casino and not use paper of any kind in the casino.

I've seen players buying in for more than I do, playing as fast as
possible (to look like an expert, I suppose), and running out of
money long before I do!
I'm of a "get in, get out" mentallity.

Gambling is not a cash machine, with the exception of stuff like piggy
bank and cherry pie. Of course, play "get in, get out" on those and
the casino knows you are an advantage player.

Deliberately slow playing will probably make the casino suspect you
are playing for drinks and/or comps or just a lazy bum or a hustler
looking for a chance to fleece a paying customer or a team player
keeping non-team players from getting on a machine.

Some people are very fast players, most are horrible strategy players
however and often make costly mistakes from playing too fast.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "djmcosmo" <djmcosmo@y...> wrote: