bankroll for 9/6 JOB

[JZ1]

Adam Adams wrote....

$40 in ten minutes equates to $240 an hour. I have lost $100 in 20 minutes playing 25c 9/6 job, that would be $300 in just one hour.

Losing $40 in 10 is much more likely than losing $240 in an hour. I don't have Dunbar's excellent risk analyser handy but will relate a simpler example that illustrates the point. Let's use the familiar coin flip example. Getting 2 or less correct out of 10 flips has a probability of 5.4%. Getting 4 or less out of 20 flips has a prob of 0.59%.

Rare events in the short run ( 1 quad in 2000 hands) are much more likely than the corresponding event over more samples ( 10 quads in 20000 hands).

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Dunbar]

Adam Adams wrote....

$40 in ten minutes equates to $240 an hour. I have lost $100 in 20

minutes playing 25c 9/6 job, that would be $300 in just one hour.

Losing $40 in 10 is much more likely than losing $240 in an hour. I

don't have Dunbar's excellent risk analyser handy but will relate a
simpler example that illustrates the point. Let's use the familiar
coin flip example. Getting 2 or less correct out of 10 flips has a
probability of 5.4%. Getting 4 or less out of 20 flips has a prob of
0.59%.

Rare events in the short run ( 1 quad in 2000 hands) are much more

likely than the corresponding event over more samples ( 10 quads in
20000 hands).

Thanks for the plug!

Since I DO happen to have Dunbar's Risk Analyzer handy, ;>), I'll add
to what you said.

Playing 25c 9/6 JOB...

Chance of losing $40 in 10 minutes is 3.8%
Chance of losing $240 in 60 minutes is less than 0.01%. (In
100,000 "hours", not once was a $240 bankroll lost.)

It's at least 400 times easier to lose $40 in 10 minutes than to lose
$240 in an hour.

(I assumed 540 hands/hr for these calcs)

--Dunbar

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