vpFREE2 Forums

bad pick em session

#1

fordscks wrote ...

I ran two types of simulations - one on WinPoker, and I got a 85.10% payback after 1,000 hands (easier to work with).

Ford,

Thanks for the reply. 85% return over 1000 hands is much more likely than 80% return for 4000 hands. I ran winpoker 4000 hand sessions and the worst I got was about 90% and the best was about 110%. Nothing even close to 80%. The reason I thought there were very few hands above trips is that the higher hands take longer ( on pickem ) for the credits to ring up and it's hard to lose that much money if you hit the big hands.

Run your sims for 4000 hands and see what you get.

John Zaroff
Delphi Electronics and Safety
313-996-3682 (w)
313-378-2987 ( Cell)
3133782987@vtext.com ( text page)

ยทยทยท

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#2

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff" <John.G.Zaroff@d...>
wrote:

Ford,

Thanks for the reply. 85% return over 1000 hands is much more

likely than 80% return for 4000 hands. I ran winpoker 4000 hand
sessions and the worst I got was about 90% and the best was about
110%. Nothing even close to 80%. The reason I thought there were
very few hands above trips is that the higher hands take longer ( on
pickem ) for the credits to ring up and it's hard to lose that much
money if you hit the big hands.

Run your sims for 4000 hands and see what you get.

John:

You need to be open-minded if you are seeking wisdom. I also ran the
analysis on frugal vp (please see prior post), and I saw periods
where the return over a significant number of hands was under 80%,
somewhere in the 70%. The winpoker data that I used was for
decomposition analysis - I could have used 4,000 hands and it would
have pointed out the same conclusion. What I am saying is if you
have a good grasp of statistics, and the understand the basic
concepts of outliers and data mining, then you would realize the
under 80% return does happen. If you can't understand this point,
then there nothing I can say or do that can help you.

Also, the fact is people have chimed in with enough horror stories
to show that bad things does occur on pick'em, and frankly, I've
already wasted enough time on this issue.

Good luck with your bet with your friend.