All the risk-of-ruin tables and equations I can find assume "playing
forever". Without (re)starting a debate about short-term play, is
there a way I can find risk-of-ruin for a fixed bankroll over a
varying amount of play? For instance, JoB at 99.54% has a LONG-TERM
RoR of "1" in that eventually the bankroll will be depleted, but the
RoR for a SINGLE HAND at $5 for a $500 bankroll is clearly "0". Is
there an equation that takes bankroll, # of plays and RoR all into
account? I'm sure that there is and I'm missing something fairly easy
to figure out.
Backing out of ROR
dixiepokerace wrote:
All the risk-of-ruin tables and equations I can find assume "playing
forever". Is there a way I can find risk-of-ruin for a fixed
bankroll over a varying amount of play?
There are two short-term calculators that have been discussed here in
the past -- Video Poker for Winners (VPW) and Dunbar's Risk Analyzer
for Video Poker (DRA-VP)
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VPW has a bankroll calculator that graphically displays play outcome
distribution given a specified session stake (bankroll), denomination,
and number of hands (including sessions that "bust").
Probability of profit vs. loss is detailed in addition to ROR, and you
can use the chart to assess other session factors (e.g. middle 50%
result range). The calculator allows for a profit "quit threshold".
Cashback isn't factored (most of us don't increase our session
allowance as cb is accrued). VPW also has a long-term ROR calculator
with the standard variables (incl cb), finding ROR for a given
bankroll and vice versa.
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DRA-VP provides a little more information - including both graphical
and tabular display of sessions results as well as when "bust"
sessions occurred.
If you're looking for fine tuned results, the Dunbar's Analyzer is a
little more useful. However, it's in spreadsheet form and requires MS
Excel to use. Dunbar's product also has a more detailed LT ROR
analysis that doesn't simply calculate ROR for a single bankroll, but
also displays ROR as bankroll varies in a single chart.
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Incorporated within a vp practice product, the VPW calculator is a
fine enhancement on other tutors and for most purposes provides a very
sufficient tool. However, DRA-VP's multiple concise graphics convey
ROR info in a much more satisfactory manner and is great as a stand
alone tool, or as a supplement to VPW.
- Harry