vpFREE2 Forums

Back-to-back royals

#1

Hi Gang:
We have a friend who is a comedian who works on cruise ships. He's also a
video poker player and right now he's on the Allure of the Seas, one of
Royal Caribbean's two new mega-ships (the Oasis is the other).
He sent us an email the other day about an unbelievable occurrence that
happened to him onboard. He was playing 50-cent DDB when he held three cards
to a clubs royal and hit it for $2,000. After getting his hand pay, on the
VERY NEXT hand, he held a queen of spades and got another royal!!
He posted pictures of the royals on his Facebook Page and it was amazing to
see.
He asked us if we had ever heard of anyone doing this before and we wrote
back that we have friends who live in California who also had this happen to
them.
My questions are:
1) Is it possible to compute the odds of this once-in-a-lifetime happening?
2) Does anyone else on these boards have any other stories of back-to-back
royals?
Regards,
CoachVee & Hedy

PS: Hedy and I will be staying/playing at Showboat in AC this weekend
because I will be playing poker in the AtLarge Tournament events next door at
the Taj. I know Siona and Llew of the AC group will be playing as well but
was wondering if any other members of these boards will be taking part.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

If you ask the question "What are the chances that my next two hands will be royals then it would be 649,740 X 649,740 = 422,162,067,600.

If you hit a royal then ask the question "What are the chances that my next hand will be a royal then the answer is 649,740.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@... wrote:

He was playing 50-cent DDB when he held three cards to a clubs royal >and hit it for $2,000. After getting his hand pay, on the VERY NEXT >hand, he held a queen of spades and got another royal!!

1) Is it possible to compute the odds of this once-in-a-lifetime >happening?

#3

He he I'm still working on getting the first one!

Kurt

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@... wrote:

2) Does anyone else on these boards have any other stories of
back-to-back
royals?

#4

Well, you'd have to clarify your question and make some assumptions first. Assuming a 40,000 hand royal cycle and assuming your question is the chance of hitting back to back royals after hitting one royal, the simple answer is 1 in 40,000. The odds of hitting back to back royals on any given 2 successive hands is, of course, 1 in 40,000 squared. So your question is probably more interesting than either of these. You mentioned a lifetime, so, even though you technically gave an estimate for its chance, maybe your question is the chance of one person doing this in his or her lifetime. An estimate for how many hands would be played would be necessary to make and then the chance of any 2 of them being back to back could be calculated. There may be a more sophisticated approach to the problem, but I'll take a stab at it and say that, assuming the player will play 8 million hands and hit 200 royals, the chance of 2 of them being back to back at least once would be 1 - ((39,999/40,000) ^ 199), which is the same as the chance of hitting at least one royal in 199 hands. Without doing the math, I'll guess it's about 1 in 200.

···

----- coachvee@aol.com wrote:

My questions are:

1) Is it possible to compute the odds of this once-in-a-lifetime happening?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

I'm really getting a big kick out of being a bonehead. Once again, I can't blame it on drinking. Maybe I have Alzheimer's. The first answer I gave would apply to flopping back to back royals. I must have been still stuck on a previous post. So let's try again.

If you are playing 9/6 Double Double and ask the question "What are the chances that my next two hands will be royals?" the answer is 40,799.3 X 40,799.3 = 1,664,582,880.49

If you hit a royal and then ask the question "What are the chances my next hand will be a royal?" the answer is 40,799.3.

I still chase women. I just can't remember why.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@... wrote:

He was playing 50-cent DDB when he held three cards to a clubs royal >and hit it for $2,000. After getting his hand pay, on the VERY NEXT >hand, he held a queen of spades and got another royal!!

1) Is it possible to compute the odds of this once-in-a-lifetime >happening?

#6

In Jan. of last year I was at Buffalo Bills in Primm playing $2 and was dealt 4 to the RF in clubs. I needed the last card on the right and here comes the Queen for $4000. The attendant told me to play it off and out comes four more clubs to the royal, as if the machine gremlin didn't shuffle very good. This time I needed the King and got it for another hand pay.

I've been playing for 25 years and have never come close to it before, I've never been dealt a royal or hit one in sequence. So this is my claim to fame:)

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@... wrote:

2) Does anyone else on these boards have any other stories of back-to-back
royals?
Regards,
CoachVee & Hedy

#7

Interesting thread. The rule of thumb in probability is that the first one's free, since you can play an infinite amount of hands to get the first RF, it's only the straight probability getting it once, to calculate the chance of getting it twice in a row. Commonly miscalculated as harder than it is. The boys have told you right.

I have not had back to back Royals, but I did get four sets of Deuces, on Deuces Wild in six hands once (Circus Circus Reno progressive). The longest I've gone without a Royal was 11 cycles (385,000 hands). The most I've gotten in one day was six (in two hours). Gosh, it's almost like the machines are random or something.

~FK

#8

Were you playing $2 or $1? (You said the RF was $4000)

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "archiecoons" <archiecoons@...> wrote:

In Jan. of last year I was at Buffalo Bills in Primm playing $2 and was dealt 4 to the RF in clubs. I needed the last card on the right and here comes the Queen for $4000. The attendant told me to play it off and out comes four more clubs to the royal, as if the machine gremlin didn't shuffle very good. This time I needed the King and got it for another hand pay.

I've been playing for 25 years and have never come close to it before, I've never been dealt a royal or hit one in sequence. So this is my claim to fame:)

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@ wrote:
> 2) Does anyone else on these boards have any other stories of back-to-back
> royals?
> Regards,
> CoachVee & Hedy

#9

Happened to me at Trump Castle in Atlantic City years ago.
25 cent Royal. When I played it off, I got the same suited Royal again!
I was 86ed from the place a while later. They said "why is a Las Vegas" player playing in Atlantic City?" LOL

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@... wrote:

Hi Gang:
We have a friend who is a comedian who works on cruise ships. He's also a
video poker player and right now he's on the Allure of the Seas, one of
Royal Caribbean's two new mega-ships (the Oasis is the other).
He sent us an email the other day about an unbelievable occurrence that
happened to him onboard. He was playing 50-cent DDB when he held three cards
to a clubs royal and hit it for $2,000. After getting his hand pay, on the
VERY NEXT hand, he held a queen of spades and got another royal!!
He posted pictures of the royals on his Facebook Page and it was amazing to
see.
He asked us if we had ever heard of anyone doing this before and we wrote
back that we have friends who live in California who also had this happen to
them.
My questions are:
1) Is it possible to compute the odds of this once-in-a-lifetime happening?
2) Does anyone else on these boards have any other stories of back-to-back
royals?
Regards,
CoachVee & Hedy

PS: Hedy and I will be staying/playing at Showboat in AC this weekend
because I will be playing poker in the AtLarge Tournament events next door at
the Taj. I know Siona and Llew of the AC group will be playing as well but
was wondering if any other members of these boards will be taking part.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10

Coach V after any hand including a royal your chance of getting a royal the very next hand is one in 40000,
or thereabouts depending on game played. Only about 1% of video poker players will ever get back to back
royals in their lifetimes. I have never redrawn a royal, throwing away all cards and getting ba royal. That is a very
rare event also and you are indeed lucky if you have redrawn a royal. On the other hand I have not been dealt a
royal since Jan. 2003. The chance of being dealt a royal on an HONEST machine is greater than one in 650000.
I estimate that I have gone at least 9 cycles since my last dealt royal. The chance of this occuring on HONEST
machines is less than one in 8000. Think about that!

···

-----Original Message-----
From: coachvee <coachvee@aol.com>
To: acvpp <acvpp@yahoogroups.com>
Cc: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>; vpmail2 <vpmail2@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Mar 9, 2011 8:40 am
Subject: [vpFREE] Back-to-back royals

Hi Gang:
We have a friend who is a comedian who works on cruise ships. He's also a
video poker player and right now he's on the Allure of the Seas, one of
Royal Caribbean's two new mega-ships (the Oasis is the other).
He sent us an email the other day about an unbelievable occurrence that
happened to him onboard. He was playing 50-cent DDB when he held three cards
to a clubs royal and hit it for $2,000. After getting his hand pay, on the
VERY NEXT hand, he held a queen of spades and got another royal!!
He posted pictures of the royals on his Facebook Page and it was amazing to
see.
He asked us if we had ever heard of anyone doing this before and we wrote
back that we have friends who live in California who also had this happen to
them.
My questions are:
1) Is it possible to compute the odds of this once-in-a-lifetime happening?
2) Does anyone else on these boards have any other stories of back-to-back
royals?
Regards,
CoachVee & Hedy

PS: Hedy and I will be staying/playing at Showboat in AC this weekend
because I will be playing poker in the AtLarge Tournament events next door at
the Taj. I know Siona and Llew of the AC group will be playing as well but
was wondering if any other members of these boards will be taking part.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

I have gotten a Dealt Royal twice.
Once when I first started out in May of 08, then once a few months ago.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Nordo123@... wrote:

Coach V after any hand including a royal your chance of getting a royal the very next hand is one in 40000,
or thereabouts depending on game played. Only about 1% of video poker players will ever get back to back
royals in their lifetimes. I have never redrawn a royal, throwing away all cards and getting ba royal. That is a very
rare event also and you are indeed lucky if you have redrawn a royal. On the other hand I have not been dealt a
royal since Jan. 2003. The chance of being dealt a royal on an HONEST machine is greater than one in 650000.
I estimate that I have gone at least 9 cycles since my last dealt royal. The chance of this occuring on HONEST
machines is less than one in 8000. Think about that!

-----Original Message-----
From: coachvee <coachvee@...>
To: acvpp <acvpp@yahoogroups.com>
Cc: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>; vpmail2 <vpmail2@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Mar 9, 2011 8:40 am
Subject: [vpFREE] Back-to-back royals

Hi Gang:
We have a friend who is a comedian who works on cruise ships. He's also a
video poker player and right now he's on the Allure of the Seas, one of
Royal Caribbean's two new mega-ships (the Oasis is the other).
He sent us an email the other day about an unbelievable occurrence that
happened to him onboard. He was playing 50-cent DDB when he held three cards
to a clubs royal and hit it for $2,000. After getting his hand pay, on the
VERY NEXT hand, he held a queen of spades and got another royal!!
He posted pictures of the royals on his Facebook Page and it was amazing to
see.
He asked us if we had ever heard of anyone doing this before and we wrote
back that we have friends who live in California who also had this happen to
them.
My questions are:
1) Is it possible to compute the odds of this once-in-a-lifetime happening?
2) Does anyone else on these boards have any other stories of back-to-back
royals?
Regards,
CoachVee & Hedy

PS: Hedy and I will be staying/playing at Showboat in AC this weekend
because I will be playing poker in the AtLarge Tournament events next door at
the Taj. I know Siona and Llew of the AC group will be playing as well but
was wondering if any other members of these boards will be taking part.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#12

My wife has had 4 dealt royals, including one last Saturday night. All have been on multi-line -- two triple play and two five-play.

I've had one, on single line, a couple of weeks ago. I figure I am about 4 under par at this point.

      I have gotten a Dealt Royal twice.

Once when I first started out in May of 08, then once a few months ago.

  .

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#13

I believe this is correct ... assuming a 40,000 game royal cycle...

Assuming 100 "lifetime" games, the odds are 1 in 16,162,016
Assuming 1,000 "lifetime" games, the odds are 1 in 1,601,642
Assuming 50,000 "lifetime" games, the odds are 1 in 32,001
Assuming 100,000 "lifetime" games, the odds are 1 in 16,000
Assuming 500,000 "lifetime" games, the odds are 1 in 3,200
Assuming 1,000,000 "lifetime" games, the odds are 1 in 1,600

Note that the odds above are for getting "one or more" back to back royals.
The proper way to interpret the numbers above is this way: "I am a 'clean
slate' when it comes to video poker ... the odds that I get 2 back-to-back
royals at least once sometime in the next xxxx hands is ####."

You might be able to do it with a binomial distribution. I've been thinking
about it while I waited for Excel to calc the numbers above, and I'm not
100% sure. You have to be careful. Let's say P(2 royals) is the probability
that you get two royals in a row. And you want to see what the probability
is this will happen within the next 1,000 games. It might be tempting to do
a Binomdist using the P(2 royals), but I think this would be wrong. For
example, if you are on game 1 and you fail to hit a royal, you can get a
royal on game 2 and then another on game 3 and satisfy the conditions. I do
not see how the binomial distribution takes that into account.

If anyone thinks they can do it with a binomial distribution, please show
me. That would be very helpful.

···

On Wed, Mar 9, 2011 at 5:39 AM, <coachvee@aol.com> wrote:

Hi Gang:
We have a friend who is a comedian who works on cruise ships. He's also a
video poker player and right now he's on the Allure of the Seas, one of
Royal Caribbean's two new mega-ships (the Oasis is the other).
He sent us an email the other day about an unbelievable occurrence that
happened to him onboard. He was playing 50-cent DDB when he held three
cards
to a clubs royal and hit it for $2,000. After getting his hand pay, on the
VERY NEXT hand, he held a queen of spades and got another royal!!
He posted pictures of the royals on his Facebook Page and it was amazing to

see.
He asked us if we had ever heard of anyone doing this before and we wrote
back that we have friends who live in California who also had this happen
to
them.
My questions are:
1) Is it possible to compute the odds of this once-in-a-lifetime happening?
2) Does anyone else on these boards have any other stories of back-to-back
royals?
Regards,
CoachVee & Hedy

PS: Hedy and I will be staying/playing at Showboat in AC this weekend
because I will be playing poker in the AtLarge Tournament events next door
at
the Taj. I know Siona and Llew of the AC group will be playing as well but
was wondering if any other members of these boards will be taking part.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#14

Oops I goofed! It was dollars. I must have been thinking X2 and put in $2 when I wrote it.

Next time for sure it'll be $2.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "TIMSPEED" <corvetteracing87@...> wrote:

Were you playing $2 or $1? (You said the RF was $4000)

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "archiecoons" <archiecoons@> wrote:
>
> In Jan. of last year I was at Buffalo Bills in Primm playing $2 and was dealt 4 to the RF in clubs. I needed the last card on the right and here comes the Queen for $4000. The attendant told me to play it off and out comes four more clubs to the royal, as if the machine gremlin didn't shuffle very good. This time I needed the King and got it for another hand pay.
>
> I've been playing for 25 years and have never come close to it before, I've never been dealt a royal or hit one in sequence. So this is my claim to fame:)
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@ wrote:
> > 2) Does anyone else on these boards have any other stories of back-to-back
> > royals?
> > Regards,
> > CoachVee & Hedy
>

#15

Still, at $4000 a pop, must have been pretty nuts!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "archiecoons" <archiecoons@...> wrote:

Oops I goofed! It was dollars. I must have been thinking X2 and put in $2 when I wrote it.

Next time for sure it'll be $2.