vpFREE2 Forums

Are You STILL Playing Where You Lose?

#1

A recent member posted about huge losses this year.

In my response I suggested he might be have become comfortable "losing".

Most of you understood what I meant. It's not a comfort level having to do with financial disaster. We probably don't know anyone who enjoys that. Rather, it's the casino itself making you comfortable enough so that in spite of consistent negative results you continue to return.

And the hole you dig usually gets deeper.

So why go back?

After a losing experience yesterday at the casino closest to my home I once again thought about my post. My gambling record at this particular casino shows much poorer results that many other places I've played. And I've got ample incentives from competitors to play elsewhere. So why go back to THAT losing place?

Perhaps I didn't feel like driving. I'd love to try the "Bob Dancer Recommended" machines at Barona. But that's 90 minutes more each way than what I drove yesterday.

Or perhaps it's the food. After all, when you frequent a casino you get to know where to go and what to order.

But these are superficial reasons compared to what I feel is the real one.

I think any of us VP players are competitors. We enjoy the feeling of overcoming obstacles and sometimes (but never always) being triumphant.

So the return to a "losing" casino may not have anything to do with location or comps.

Instead, I think we go back "chasing our money" not just to even the score but to prove our training and discipline can ultimately pay off.

So if that's the case. why did I recommend to the member with substantial losses to now move on and not go back?

My response is that like other competitions gambling can injure you to where you can no longer compete. The financial downturn becomes so extreme your chances of coming back are almost nil.

Not impossible, but almost.

Thus, at some point we all must draw a line that cannot be crossed. I've had a good year. But I know if I continue to return to my "losing" casino I risk squandering all the good fortune I've had elsewhere. And then some.

It might be the toughest decision a gambler has to make. But I encourage my fellow vpFREE memeber with unfortunate results to again consider my opinion. I wouldn't be offering that advice if I didn't often have to deal with accepting it myself.

#2

I have a consistent loss record at the Peppermill going back 15 years. Yes, I've had couple of trips with small wins but I've had my worst trip ever there and most trips I can't even get a 90% return on 99 or 100% machines. I go to almost any other casino and play the exact same games and frequently do well.

Why do I return? They keep sweetening the pot. Now it's Tuscany Tower Suites (they call them suites but really just a very large room with a huge bath) and $200 FP. I'm going back this week. I wonder how much I'll lose this time. I wish they would stop sending me offers and make my life simpler.

George

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mikeymic" <mikeymic@...> wrote:

A recent member posted about huge losses this year.

In my response I suggested he might be have become comfortable "losing".

Most of you understood what I meant. It's not a comfort level having to do with financial disaster. We probably don't know anyone who enjoys that. Rather, it's the casino itself making you comfortable enough so that in spite of consistent negative results you continue to return.

And the hole you dig usually gets deeper.

So why go back?

#3

Are you playing lower-EV plays there? That is a good reason not to go back if you have better EV machines elsewhere.

I do keep track of our win/loss figures each session, but since I do it manually, without the advantages of a spreadsheet, it would be a lot of work to make up a report listing what we lost or won in specific casinos. I'm glad I don't know that information because all it would do is make us unnecessarily suspicious. We play only in regulated casinos. We usually play only when we have an advantage of at least .5%, and preferably higher. So we don't worry about whether we win a lot or lose a lot in one particular casino. That would have no bearing on where we choose to play in the future.

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________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://lasvegasadvisor.com/blogs/jscott/

#4

Where are you finding these 100.5%+ plays, Jean. I know they exist in single line quarters but that's too boring for me anymore. Are they available in higher denoms? If so, how about a couple of specifics or are they too good to be shared?

George

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

Are you playing lower-EV plays there? That is a good reason not to go back
if you have better EV machines elsewhere.

I do keep track of our win/loss figures each session, but since I do it
manually, without the advantages of a spreadsheet, it would be a lot of work
to make up a report listing what we lost or won in specific casinos. I'm
glad I don't know that information because all it would do is make us
unnecessarily suspicious. We play only in regulated casinos. We usually
play only when we have an advantage of at least .5%, and preferably higher.
So we don't worry about whether we win a lot or lose a lot in one particular
casino. That would have no bearing on where we choose to play in the
future.
________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://lasvegasadvisor.com/blogs/jscott/

#5

<<Where are you finding these 100.5%+ plays, Jean. I know they exist in single line quarters but that's too boring for me anymore. Are they available in higher denoms? If so, how about a couple of specifics or are they too good to be shared?>>

Yes, they are available in higher denoms. However, I am talking about what a LOCAL can find in Vegas regularly. We play almost all negative games and depend heavily on mailed BB to get us over 100%.

This includes Silverton where you can play $1 or $2 NSUD with good BB. M has some good games and is now sending out BB. Southpoint has good games, i.e., NSUD at $1 and $2 and good BB.

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________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://lasvegasadvisor.com/blogs/jscott/

#6

I don't think many players appreciate how big the "small sample size" actually is in this game. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think even Bob Dancer has written that he is overall behind at the South Point. If you spread your action around, you're going to be behind at some places, no matter how accurately you play. I guarantee you, if your sample size was 5 million hands of positive-situation video poker at the Peppermill over that time period, you would not be behind. Well, probably not anyway.

All you can do is give yourself the best shot at success. Play good games, play good promos, practice accuracy. Then, have faith in mathematics, and keep a rabbit's foot on your key chain.

-BB

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "George" <wxmen@...> wrote:

I have a consistent loss record at the Peppermill going back 15 years.

#7

My worst year, I still made $40K, or about 25% of EV. Then again, I probably work as hard as anyone to find the spots. Unfortunately, it's exhausting me these days, I have six plays in six different parts of the country, and about to ditch two of them.

Most of SoCal is a breakeven proposition, lots of 100% machines, and close to zip on the backend. Have fun spinning your wheels, unless you're playing for fun.

I've been critical of Jean in the past about giving out info on plays, but she's given you good info there. She's big on South Strip, and rightfully so. Heck, I might even give SP, M, Silverton action next time I'm in town.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mikeymic" <mikeymic@...> wrote:

A recent member posted about huge losses this year.

#8

All depends (on the details). If it's a gamble, there is always a chance of losing (unless the government thinks you're too big to fail). N0 gives you the hands required to get an 84% of winning and it varies dramatically depending on the ER and variance of your gamble.

http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Bank_NO1.htm

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bobbartop" <bobbartop@...> wrote:

I guarantee you, if your sample size was 5 million hands of positive-situation video poker at the Peppermill over that time period, you would not be behind. Well, probably not anyway.

#9

Thanks for that post. I consider myself a relatively>serious recreational player. I've often wondered what a full time pro makes that's willing to put the work into it. To me, that work seems to be worse than a full time job. Appreciate that input tho. I'll stay At my level, me thinks.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "paladin415x" <paladin415x@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mikeymic" <mikeymic@> wrote:
>
> A recent member posted about huge losses this year.

My worst year, I still made $40K, or about 25% of EV. Then again, I probably work as hard as anyone to find the spots. Unfortunately, it's exhausting me these days, I have six plays in six different parts of the country, and about to ditch two of them.

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