vpFREE2 Forums

Are the "experts" smarter than me?!

#1

I've seen countless columns, books, and postings here on VPFree
from "experts" who matter of factly reference regularly playing
negative-expectation games at high denominations. NSUD and 9/6JB
seems particularly popular for racking up beacoup points at
Station/Fiesta, Palms, Coast Casinos, and some of the strip
properties.

As an exclusive 10/7 DB progressive player, I'm not exactly treated
like royalty at Vegas casinos. Palms in particular treats me
terribly; my $10K/day coin-in last summer eventually netted such
horrific mailers that I complained to the boothlings who checked
with management and verified that my mailers were in fact so bad
because of the machines I played.

I understand that players playing negative expectation games are
going to get MUCH better mailers, and that those mailers could
hypothetically push the return over 100%. What I don't understand
is, first, whether that return could ever be pushed above the 100.8%
or so I'm getting (machine return+mailers, never including comps) --
and second, how "experts" could comfortably risk the thousands of
dollars it would take to determine just how high the return would
be. Is there a "secret database" somewhere? PM me if you can't
post it!

Hey I'm all for making the most money possible, and if the "experts"
have it figured out better than me, I'd love to learn how. But
common sense tells me that plugging along at 100.5% (10/7DB prog,
when the paytable's right) + 0.3% mailers is about the best I can
reasonably expect. Am I wrong?

#2

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "peppermillionaire"
<peppermillionaire@...> wrote:

I understand that players playing negative expectation games are
going to get MUCH better mailers, and that those mailers could
hypothetically push the return over 100%. What I don't understand
is, first, whether that return could ever be pushed above the 100.8%
or so I'm getting (machine return+mailers, never including comps) --
and second, how "experts" could comfortably risk the thousands of
dollars it would take to determine just how high the return would
be. Is there a "secret database" somewhere? PM me if you can't
post it!

Hey I'm all for making the most money possible, and if the "experts"
have it figured out better than me, I'd love to learn how. But
common sense tells me that plugging along at 100.5% (10/7DB prog,
when the paytable's right) + 0.3% mailers is about the best I can
reasonably expect. Am I wrong?

Think in terms of $/hour or $/hand rather than percentages.

Don the Dentist

#3

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "peppermillionaire"
<peppermillionaire@...> wrote:

I've seen countless columns, books, and postings here on VPFree
from "experts" who matter of factly reference regularly playing
negative-expectation games at high

denominations.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Just a few quick comments - I'm sure other posters will have plenty
to add:

1. As you move up in denomination, you will pretty much be forced to
migrate to "negative" games like 9/6 JOB or NSUD. Even at the dollar
level, inherently positive VP is quite rare.

2. In many areas outside Nevada, positive games like FPDW just don't
exist. Some jurisdictions outlaw positive expectation machines.
However, good opportunities can still be found, but you have to
consider everything - direct cash back, mailers, etc.

3. With the execption of some runaway progressives, I can say that
EVERY high dollar per hour opportunity I've run across has involved
a "negative" game like 9/6 JOB.

EE

#4

1. As you move up in denomination, you will pretty much be forced

to

migrate to "negative" games like 9/6 JOB or NSUD. Even at the

dollar

level, inherently positive VP is quite rare.

Sorry I should have pointed out in my original post that I'm playing
10/7DB progressives at the $1 level. There are at least two that I
know of here in the Las Vegas area, and the one at Fiesta Rancho is
often quite positive. Again, 100%+ machines earning 1 point per $2,
but still...

Also, as to Don the Dentist's advice to think in terms of dollars
per hour rather than percentage, doesn't that make it HARDER to
justify negative expectation plays, rather than EASIER? If I'm
playing NSUD at 99.7% per hour, that doesn't sound so bad, but if
I'm playing it at the $5 denomination (as I understand the experts
often do) at 700 hands per hour, by my calculation that is a $52.50
per hour loser. If I'm playing 10/7DB progressives (100.5%) at the
$1 level for the same period of time, I'm making $17.50. Am I going
to get $70 in better mailers or drawing tickets per hour of play?
That seems impossible!

I hope I'm not coming off as too exasperated, but I just don't get
it. I hope somebody smarter than me can tell me what I'm missing.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "eecounter" <eecounter@...> wrote:

#5

"The experts," if they are indeed advantage players, may play negative GAMES, but not negative PLAYS, which are the game plus all the benefits. Brad and I play almost entirely negative GAMES - mostly 9/6 JoB, NSUD. I don't know if you are local, but for a Vegas local, bounce-back cash or Free Play can be very lucrative. Last month we hit a record high for BB - $4000 for the two of us. And we play only about 70-80 hours a month (total, counting both of our hours). We do play higher than we used to - a lot at $5 single line and 5-play $1 or $2, and some at $5 Triple Play - because we don't have the energy to put in as many hours as we used to.

Some places we get cashback/Free Play AND BB (which can also be cash or Free Play). Then there are card-of-the-day promos, drawings, tournaments, gift cards, shopping sprees, and other promotions. We get tons of high-level comps but we don't ever count them into the EV of the total play. Only cash or cash equivalents (like gift cards).

It does take a lot of organization and scrambling to get a negative game into positive territory these days - and we don't play at as high an EV % as we used to because the good opportunities aren't as numerous. So it takes a much bigger bankroll these days - and the roller coaster ride gets more extreme as your EV falls. Takes nerves of steel!!!!

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott - http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  Tax time is coming up - groan! "Tax Help
   for the Frugal Gambler" can answer many
   of your questions!

#6

You play that Palms Prog at 100.5%? I didn't know it got up that high
anymore. I'm not in the Palms a lot, but I haven't seen it very high since
they slowed the meter down. I think what the folks that play at those
levels are saying is that even though their percentage advantage may (or may
not) be smaller, they have a higher hourly expected return because they can
jam more money through the machines in that time. Some of the % advantages
one reads about seem surprisingly small to me, but I do know from personal
experience that one can play near 100% games at an advantage with the right
slot benefits.

Chandler

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
peppermillionaire
Sent: Wednesday, February 08, 2006 10:54 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Are the "experts" smarter than me?!

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "eecounter" <eecounter@...> wrote:

1. As you move up in denomination, you will pretty much be forced

to

migrate to "negative" games like 9/6 JOB or NSUD. Even at the

dollar

level, inherently positive VP is quite rare.

Sorry I should have pointed out in my original post that I'm playing
10/7DB progressives at the $1 level. There are at least two that I
know of here in the Las Vegas area, and the one at Fiesta Rancho is
often quite positive. Again, 100%+ machines earning 1 point per $2,
but still...

Also, as to Don the Dentist's advice to think in terms of dollars
per hour rather than percentage, doesn't that make it HARDER to
justify negative expectation plays, rather than EASIER? If I'm
playing NSUD at 99.7% per hour, that doesn't sound so bad, but if
I'm playing it at the $5 denomination (as I understand the experts
often do) at 700 hands per hour, by my calculation that is a $52.50
per hour loser. If I'm playing 10/7DB progressives (100.5%) at the
$1 level for the same period of time, I'm making $17.50. Am I going
to get $70 in better mailers or drawing tickets per hour of play?
That seems impossible!

I hope I'm not coming off as too exasperated, but I just don't get
it. I hope somebody smarter than me can tell me what I'm missing.

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#7

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "peppermillionaire"
<peppermillionaire@...> wrote:

I've seen countless columns, books, and postings here on VPFree
from "experts" who matter of factly reference regularly playing
negative-expectation games at high denominations. NSUD and 9/6JB
seems particularly popular for racking up beacoup points at
Station/Fiesta, Palms, Coast Casinos, and some of the strip
properties.

As an exclusive 10/7 DB progressive player, I'm not exactly treated
like royalty at Vegas casinos. Palms in particular treats me
terribly; my $10K/day coin-in last summer eventually netted such
horrific mailers that I complained to the boothlings who checked
with management and verified that my mailers were in fact so bad
because of the machines I played.

I understand that players playing negative expectation games are
going to get MUCH better mailers, and that those mailers could
hypothetically push the return over 100%. What I don't understand
is, first, whether that return could ever be pushed above the

100.8%

···

or so I'm getting (machine return+mailers, never including comps) -

-

and second, how "experts" could comfortably risk the thousands of
dollars it would take to determine just how high the return would
be. Is there a "secret database" somewhere? PM me if you can't
post it!

Hey I'm all for making the most money possible, and if

the "experts"

have it figured out better than me, I'd love to learn how. But
common sense tells me that plugging along at 100.5% (10/7DB prog,
when the paytable's right) + 0.3% mailers is about the best I can
reasonably expect. Am I wrong?

About 1/2 win and 1/2 lose and some always win and some always lose.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/surveys?id=12224294

#8

You play that Palms Prog at 100.5%? I didn't know it got up that

high

anymore.

Sadly, no - you're right that the Palms progressive never gets above
100.2%-100.3%. The Fiesta Rancho, however, regularly gets above
100.5%.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Chandler" <omnibibulous1@...> wrote:

#9

Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@...> wrote:

Brad and I play almost entirely negative GAMES - mostly 9/6 JoB,

NSUD. And we play only about 70-80 hours a month (total, counting both
of our hours). We do play higher than we used to - a lot at $5
single line and 5-play $1 or $2, and some at $5 Triple Play -

Jean, if my arithmetic is right, you and Brad are playing about $1
million coin in per month. If the games are JOB and NSUD, your expected
loss (on play only) is about $2,500 to $5,000 per month. Since you are
still finding a way to turn a profit, I am truly impressed.

Slowpoke

#10

<<Jean, if my arithmetic is right, you and Brad are playing about $1
million coin in per month. If the games are JOB and NSUD, your expected
loss (on play only) is about $2,500 to $5,000 per month. Since you are
still finding a way to turn a profit, I am truly impressed.>>

January was not a typical month, but we had $15,000 in "other" benefits -
cash/cash equivalents like drawings, gift cards/certificates, CB, BB, etc.
Before you get too envious, however, I must tell you that this did not cover
our VP losses - $21,000. We had no royals although we should have gotten 1
or 2. But we look at one month's play as a tiny part of the long term,
which continues to be positive.

But you can see that "other benefits" can mount up, especially on the higher
levels. And this doesn't add in comps. For example, we earned a cruise
last month and the usual food and show comps.

But before everyone runs out to try to duplicate this, remember we have been
doing this for 21 years and we "know the ropes," learning at the quarter
level for many years and only VERY SLOWLY starting to go up in denomination.
And sometimes we still get "dizzy" at the higher altitudes!

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott - http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  Tax time is coming up - groan! "Tax Help
   for the Frugal Gambler" can answer many
   of your questions!