How do you figure an 100% certainty of ruin in an 100% return game? I guess it's because with infinite play and a finite bankroll eventually you will hit a long enough losing streak to go bust, but how likely is that in "real life?"
I would think there would have to be a more useful figure for figuring the realistic "chance" of risk of ruin over a certain number of hours/hands of play.
Yes, there is. If you want to know the chance of losing a specific amount over a certain number of hands, then that's referred to as "short-term" risk of ruin. (It may also be termed "session" or "trip" risk of ruin.)
Short-term RoR is useful info. Even after determining that you have enough bankroll to play a game forever (from using the jazbo/Sorokin formula), you still need to know how much of that bankroll you need to take with you on a trip. You might need $100,000 to play a game forever, but you don't want to take $100,000 with you on a weekend trip. Is $5K enough? That's what short-term RoR analysis will tell you.
Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker does these kinds of calcs quickly for single-line games.
Risk of ruin calculations are difficult. I think hartbarger is playing with an edge (he just hasn't calculated the exact edge yet) so he could use the jazbo/sorokin formula you suggested once that edge is determined.
Yes, sometimes determining the edge is tricky, especially when it depends on various perks. Factoring in things like cashback is not difficult, however.
--Dunbar
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "shloemoejs99" <shloemoejs99@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@> wrote:
>
> An adequate bankroll would be however much you are willing to lose.
> At exactly 100% expected return, your risk of ruin with unlimited
> play is 100% (certainty) regardless of the size of your bankroll
> (unless your bankroll is bigger than the casino's and you have
> unlimited time to play).
>
> If there is a cash rebate from the slot club that puts the total ER
> over 100% then the jazbo/Sorokin formula can be used to calculate the
> precise risk of ruin. This calculation is included in Optimum Video
> Poker, but of course the game's payoff schedule is needed.
>
> Dan
>
> hartbarger11 wrote:
> >Bankroll question? If playing a 100.00% return game, 100 play 5 cent
> >denomination, $25.00 a hand. What would be an adequate bankroll for
> >this game. Just trying 2 get an idea of bankroll needed 4 100 play
> >with 100% return with free play and other perks. Thanks
>
> --
> Dan Paymar
> Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
> Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
> Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
>
> "Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur
>