In a message dated 4/3/2008 9:43:16 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
joel0457@yahoo.com writes:
We received the same offer Mel. I prefer it when they have a stated amount
of Freeplay for the giveaway.
This is a good offer for low-end players, bad for higher end.
**************Planning your summer road trip? Check out AOL Travel Guides.
(http://travel.aol.com/travel-guide/united-states?ncid=aoltrv00030000000016)
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I've done FP offers that come with a range of value at
many casinos in NV over the past few years along with
my wife and friends and relatives, and all have always
gotten the minimum amount and not a penny more.
Any FP with a range at Foxwoods has also been gotten
at the minimum amount.
So I assume that there is a > 99% chance the offer is
worth what the lowest stated value is worth.
At best the most likely scenario is that you have less
than a 1% of getting the highest offer.
So the value of say a $100 to $5,000 offer is most
likely:
99% x $ 100 = $99.00
<1% x $4,900 = <$49.00
------------------------
<$148.00
But I more or less agree with you. I'd rather have
$125+- guaranteed than $100 guaranteed with a very
small chance of getting another $4,900.
It's like all those drawings Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun
have to entice you to come there. Essentially, based
on your chances of winning those drawings, the
expected/effective value is often less than $1.00 per
person (in other words what would you pay to have an
additional chance at a drawing for say $25,000, when
you know 24,999 people are eligible to win).
The possiility of getting $5,000 in FP is essentially
the same type of come on (albeit in this case fewer
people are eligible for the big prize in each tier),
making your odds better. But I'd still bet it is at
least something like 1,000 to 1 even in the higher
tiers, making the value of the potential of an added
$4,900 worth about another $4.90.
To me, the value of that play would be worth about
$104.90 in FP unless the casino will disclose the
number of payouts that will be given above $100 and
the number of people who were offered that range and
finally the percentage of those they forecast will
actually use the offer.
Then you would know exactly where you stand. But you
know they won't. So I assume the worst case which in
my experince also represents the most likely case from
the point of view of looking it at as an incentive to
gamble there on that day or days.
ST
--- vp1040@aol.com wrote:
In a message dated 4/3/2008 9:43:16 P.M. Eastern
Daylight Time,
joel0457@yahoo.com writes:We received the same offer Mel. I prefer it when
they have a stated amount
of Freeplay for the giveaway.This is a good offer for low-end players, bad for
higher end.**************Planning your summer road trip? Check
out AOL Travel Guides.
(http://travel.aol.com/travel-guide/united-states?ncid=aoltrv00030000000016)
[Non-text portions of this message have been
removed]
____________________________________________________________________________________
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Last time I got an offer for FP from MS I think the minimum was
either for $25 or $50, and the Max was $1000, and I got $500, I was
really surprised.
$500 Free Play is a nice surprise. If you can't figure why then maybe
you were selected randomly for 10X FP. Some experimenting going on?
--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "kerri carlson"
<kerricarlson@...> wrote:
Last time I got an offer for FP from MS I think the minimum was
either for $25 or $50, and the Max was $1000, and I got $500, I was
really surprised.