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Any other "recreational experts" out there?

#1

Hi All,

I'm new to this forum and have only recently learned JoB optimal
strategy (or that it even existed). It seems that many posters to
this forum are what I would call "serious experts" - people who only
play VP games that are positive or when comps/cash back make them
positve. Now that I understand pay tables and their affect on my
bankroll, my main goal is to find the best option readily available
to me. In central NY, that means Turning Stone (well, maybe...if you
have seen my recent Turning Stone post you'll know that the jury is
still out as to whether they are my best option or not) and their
8/5 JoB machines.

They have new games with an ER of just under 97% (if the pay tables
can be relied on). I feel like the "serious experts" would scoff at
anyone who plays such a game (which is ok - to each his own). But
make my money last a lot longer than a reel slot with an unknown
(but surely far less) return.

Out of curiosity, I'm wondering if anyone else on this forum just
wants to maximize play and minimize losses by playing the best
machine available?

Karen

P.S. I can't help but feeling slightly superior to other VP players
who I see holding an Ace kicker or drawing to an inside straight on
JoB machines. :wink:

That's all for my Sunday morning posting!

···

from my point of view, a 96.87% ER game of Bonus Poker is going to

#2

the new penny machines probably have the lowest losses for negative
games, of course once you buy winpoker or frugalVP you can play on
your own computer for free, or there are some free java games here:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/videopoker/

positive gambling is still gambling, you always face a risk of ruin
particularly if you are unprepared for the gamble
negative gambling is a fool's folly

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kls9036" <ksunderland@h...> wrote:

Out of curiosity, I'm wondering if anyone else on this forum just
wants to maximize play and minimize losses by playing the best
machine available?

#3

* kls9036 <ksunderland@htva.net> [2004-06-27 10:11]:

P.S. I can't help but feeling slightly superior to other VP players
who I see holding an Ace kicker or drawing to an inside straight on
JoB machines. :wink:

What's an Ace kicker?

As for the inside straight, I'm looking at a JoB 9/6 and 8/5 strategy
table (for 5 unit play) that shows a "4 card non-sequential straight"
to have an ER of 3.40, which is greater than the ER of tossing the
whole hand (1.80). I assume a non-sequential straight is the same as
an inside straight.

So I'm confused. Every strategy table I've found seems to be
different than the others for the same pay table, and they all seem to
have some obvious flaws. I would like to study probability of VP, so
I can create a table that I can trust. Any pointers?

kls-

How do you know drawing to an inside straight is unfavorable?

#4

MindFuq wrote:

What's an Ace kicker?

A "kicker" is a card that when held as part of a paying combination
boosts the payout on that hand. An example is quad 2's,3's,4's in
double double bonus where an Ace held as the fifth card increases the
pay from 400 to 2000.

As for the inside straight, I'm looking at a JoB 9/6 and 8/5
strategy table (for 5 unit play) that shows a "4 card non-sequential
straight" to have an ER of 3.40, which is greater than the ER of
tossing the whole hand (1.80). I assume a non-sequential straight
is the same as an inside straight.

I'm not sure what the source of your table is, but those numbers are
consistent with the evaluation of a 4 card sequential straight with no
high cards (e.g. 2h 5s 6d 7c 8c).

In the case of either 9/6 or 8/5, a 4 card inside straight isn't a
viable hold unless at least 3 of the cards are high.

So I'm confused. Every strategy table I've found seems to be
different than the others for the same pay table, and they all seem
to have some obvious flaws. I would like to study probability of
VP, so I can create a table that I can trust. Any pointers?

All reputable paytables are pretty much consistent with each other --
the major differences generally being restricted to the level of
detail ("basic" vs. "advanced" strategies) and formatting. (There
will be some finer distinctions).

Good sources of commercial products have been identified by the site
administrator at: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/More.htm

- Harry

#5

* Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net> [2004-06-27 14:46]:

I'm not sure what the source of your table is, but those numbers are
consistent with the evaluation of a 4 card sequential straight with
no high cards (e.g. 2h 5s 6d 7c 8c).

I like the tables at www.thegamblersedge.com because they're not as
cryptic to read as the others, and they have an ER table for all the
common paytables. But I am finding them difficult to trust. BTW- The
4 card sequential straight actually has an ER of 3.72 on JoB 9/6.

In the case of either 9/6 or 8/5, a 4 card inside straight isn't a
viable hold unless at least 3 of the cards are high.

Tell me if the table at thegamblersedge looks bogus to you. There are
several things that look questionable, which may be due (in part) to
my ignorance. But it just does not make sense to me the following
lines on the JoB 9/6 and JoB 8/5:

  4 card straight (non-sequential) : ER = 3.40
  4 card straight (non-sequential, 3 high cards) : ER = 2.66

I just seems absurd to me that having 3 high cards would reduce the
value of the partial straight.

Tell me if I'm wrong, but it also seems to be flawed that their 2s
wild one deuce strategy has an ER line for a 4 card royal, and one for
a 2 card royal, but no ER for a 3 card royal. Following such a table
would mean if I have a 3 card royal, I should discard one of the three
to draw on a two card royal. That has to be a mistake.

All reputable paytables are pretty much consistent with each other
-- the major differences generally being restricted to the level of
detail ("basic" vs. "advanced" strategies) and formatting. (There
will be some finer distinctions).

Good sources of commercial products have been identified by the site
administrator at: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/More.htm

Thanks for the reference, but I don't want to buy a commercial
product. Commercial products, by their nature, try to keep users in
the dark by hiding their proprietary secret formula within their
closed-source cathedral.

I want to be an *expert*, which means not just following strategy
tables, but also computing them. I've started reading "Chance, Luck,
and Statistics" by Horace Levinson, but it seems to focus on poker.
I'm assuming I can apply what I get from the book to VP, but I'd like
to know if there exists a publication specific to VP, which would make
for even better hand-holding.

#6

there are four possible ways to complete an inside straight out of 47
remaining cards, if the paytable win for a straight is 4:
4/47 x 4 = 0.340425531

inside straight with 1 high card:
0.340425531 + 3/47 x 1 = 0.404255319
inside straight with 2 high cards:
0.340425531 + 6/47 x 1 = 0.468085105
inside straight with 3 high cards:
0.340425531 + 9/47 x 1 = 0.531914893
inside straight with 4 high cards:
0.340425531 + 12/47 x 1 = 0.59574468

outside straight:
8/47 x 4 = 0.680851063

...

er=probability x win
http://wizardofodds.com/games/pokerodd.html

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, MindFuq <mindfuq@z...> wrote:

How do you know drawing to an inside straight is unfavorable?

#7

Now that I understand pay tables and their affect on my
bankroll, my main goal is to find the best option readily available
to me.

...

Out of curiosity, I'm wondering if anyone else on this forum just
wants to maximize play and minimize losses by playing the best
machine available?

I put myself in that group - luckily there are positive games for me
locally, but even if there weren't I'd probably still play. It's just
not the same playing WinPoker on the home computer as playing in a
casino.

However, you need to carfully study this website:
http://www.videopoker.fws1.com
It shows the cost of playing those low paytables. And even if you're
willing to throw away a little money (it's just entertainment
expense, like show tickets), at least do it in a way that will let
you learn how to profit when/if the opportunity arises.

What I would do in your shoes is to be my own house to an extent. If
they offer 8/5 JOB in nickels, I'd take along a piece of paper and
play one nickel at a time. Keep tickmarks of the FHs and FLs you get,
and pay into your gambling fund the extra coin the casino is shorting
you each time you hit one (hitting a RF will cost you 550 nickels if
they pay 250 single coin). Keep your gambling fund separate from your
other money and watch how it grows and shrinks. This way, you can
play the real game in simulation for a very moderate cost.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kls9036" <ksunderland@h...> wrote:

#8

From a quick look, I'd say trash those tables. Yeah, it's nice they
have all the games but something is wrong there. The 3.72 number is
the number for an outside straight, one-high, and 3.40 is outside
straight, none high. Inside straight, non-high, is 1.70.

Note also at the bottom of their JOB table, they say holdings tens
has the same value as holding Jacks. That's flat out wrong.

For JOB and Deuces Wild, here are some reliable tables - about 1/3
down on the page - tons of other good stuff on this site, too. Given
your other posts you might want to spend a lot of time looking
through everything here over the next few days.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/videopoker/

Here's another suggestion that might help you toward your goal - take
all the four-card-hold strategies and see if you can duplicate
numbers on the wizards tables. Here's an example using a four card
hold of JQKA of hearts, while discarding the 6 of diamonds.

paytable:

Jacks 9/6
Royal flush 800
Straight flush 50
Four of a kind 25
Full house 9
Flush 6
Straight 4
Three of a kind 3
Two pair 2
Pair 1
Nothing 0

Royal flush 800

odds: only one card works so 1/47
value: 1/47*4000=85.106 coins

Straight flush 50

no chance

Four of a kind 25

no chance

Full house 9

no chance

Flush 6

odds: 13 cards per suit, you already have 4 so 9 left, BUT one of the
9 is covered above in the royal, so 8 others - 8/47
value: 8/47*30=5.106 coins

Straight 4

odds: need a 10, 4 in deck, BUT one covered above in royal so 3 left
value: 3/47*20=1.277 coins

Three of a kind 3

no chance

Two pair 2

no chance

High Pair 1

odds: you have 4 high cards you could pair up in the one remaining
spot, each has 3 cards left so 12/47
value: 12/47*5=1.277 coins

total value= 85.106 + 5.106 + 1.277 + 1.277 = 92.766

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, MindFuq <mindfuq@z...> wrote:

I like the tables at www.thegamblersedge.com because they're not as
cryptic to read as the others, and they have an ER table for all the
common paytables. But I am finding them difficult to trust.

#9

>Now that I understand pay tables and their affect on my
> bankroll, my main goal is to find the best option readily

available

> to me.

...

>
> Out of curiosity, I'm wondering if anyone else on this forum

just

> wants to maximize play and minimize losses by playing the best
> machine available?

I put myself in that group - luckily there are positive games for

me

locally, but even if there weren't I'd probably still play. It's

just

not the same playing WinPoker on the home computer as playing in a
casino.

However, you need to carfully study this website:
http://www.videopoker.fws1.com
It shows the cost of playing those low paytables. And even if

you're

willing to throw away a little money (it's just entertainment
expense, like show tickets), at least do it in a way that will let
you learn how to profit when/if the opportunity arises.

What I would do in your shoes is to be my own house to an extent.

If

they offer 8/5 JOB in nickels

No such luck. In upstate NY (between Binghamton and Syracuse) there
just aren't any good options for a day trip except for Turning
Stone. If I factor in the extra cost of travel and a hotel stay for
an overnight trip, I'm not sure I'm saving much in my quest for
better paying games. So, the best game in my neck of the woods is 25
cent JoB. Honestly, even though I know the return is only 97.3%, I
feel a whole lot better about playing that over reel slots. I've
learned the correct strategy and can play it well, and knowing that
I have more control over how long my money lasts makes it a lot more
fun.

But, the idea of paying myself for those short pay FH's and FL's is
appealing. Would cost me an average of $10-15 per hour at my rate of
play.

Thanks for the advice.

Karen

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "blaw57" <blaw57@y...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kls9036" <ksunderland@h...> wrote:

#10

No such luck. In upstate NY (between Binghamton and Syracuse) there
just aren't any good options for a day trip except for Turning
Stone. If I factor in the extra cost of travel and a hotel stay for
an overnight trip, I'm not sure I'm saving much in my quest for
better paying games. So, the best game in my neck of the woods is

25

cent JoB. Honestly, even though I know the return is only 97.3%, I
feel a whole lot better about playing that over reel slots. I've
learned the correct strategy and can play it well, and knowing that
I have more control over how long my money lasts makes it a lot

more

fun.

Karen

Karen,

The "JoB" machines at Turning Stone are defined as "video lottery
machines", and as such, they are not random. Even though the paytable
might suggest at 97.3% payback, this is certainly not the case. I've
heard estimates in the 75%-80% range. The new casino in Saratoga is
the same way. They are careful not to advertise slot machines and
video poker machines, but rather "video lottery terminals". I haven't
been to TS in 6 years, and I don't plan to return.

Dave

#11

Karen,

If the Game Kings carry the IGT logo, then they would be have to be
random, or else IGT is opening itself up to liability.

I was under the impression the an agreement between NYS and the
participating Indian tribes forbade the installation of true slot
machines. Perhaps this has been changed, since I believe Seneca
Niagara also has true video poker machines.

I wouldn't count on randomness in an unregulated jurisdiction such as
New York, though.

Dave

#12

IGT is now making non-random machines (aka video lottery, aka Class
II) that look exactly like their random (Class III/Nevada) machines
vegas sun article:
http://tinyurl.com/34fa3
fortunately these are not legal in the state of Nevada

Karen,

If the Game Kings carry the IGT logo, then they would be have to be
random, or else IGT is opening itself up to liability.

I was under the impression the an agreement between NYS and the
participating Indian tribes forbade the installation of true slot
machines. Perhaps this has been changed, since I believe Seneca
Niagara also has true video poker machines.

I wouldn't count on randomness in an unregulated jurisdiction such

as

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Dave" <wolverines72@y...> wrote:

New York, though.

Dave

#13

> No such luck. In upstate NY (between Binghamton and Syracuse)

there

> just aren't any good options for a day trip except for Turning
> Stone. If I factor in the extra cost of travel and a hotel stay

for

> an overnight trip, I'm not sure I'm saving much in my quest for
> better paying games. So, the best game in my neck of the woods

is

25
> cent JoB. Honestly, even though I know the return is only 97.3%,

I

> feel a whole lot better about playing that over reel slots. I've
> learned the correct strategy and can play it well, and knowing

that

> I have more control over how long my money lasts makes it a lot
more
> fun.

> Karen

Karen,

The "JoB" machines at Turning Stone are defined as "video lottery
machines", and as such, they are not random. Even though the

paytable

might suggest at 97.3% payback, this is certainly not the case.

I've

heard estimates in the 75%-80% range. The new casino in Saratoga

is

the same way. They are careful not to advertise slot machines and
video poker machines, but rather "video lottery terminals". I

haven't

been to TS in 6 years, and I don't plan to return.

Dave

Dave,

I've been trying to get a definitive answer about the Turning Stone
JoB machines ever since I heard they may be "hokey". I wrote a
letter to the casino asking for information, but have a feeling I
won't get a straight answer (if I get one at all).

I *can* say that I do not lose at a rate that a 75-80% ER would
indicate.

On 9/6 machines in AC for 5 hours last week, I was down $165. On
recent Turning Stone trips I played:

for 8 hours, down $150
for 2 hours, down $65
for 3.5 hours, down $90
for 4 hours, down $25

From what I have read about cost per hour on 8/5 JoB, my losses at
Turning Stone are not at all out of line with those figures.

Playing through $600 per hour, for example, I should be losing $125-
150 per hour (at 75-80% ER), right? And others don't lose like that
either - the machines are usually packed and people stay at them a
long time. I "spy on" my neighboring players from time to time to
see if I can spot anyone playing correct strategy (haven't so far)
or to see what their balance is, and people generally lose at a
pretty leisurely pace.

Maybe I've just been lucky, though I sure am skeptical of playing
there now. If I hear anything from the casino I'll post it here.

Karen

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Dave" <wolverines72@y...> wrote:

#14

Nobody wins?
In the short term, about a third of the people should be winners.
Using this java tool:
http://www.lotspiech.com/GamblersRuin.html
I ran 600 hands of quarter 9/6 JOB with stake of $250 and retire with
$250 gain and got:
0.01% -$225
0.63% -$175
6.7% -$125
23% -$75
32% -$25
23% +$25
9.3% +$75
2.4% +$125
0.44% +$175
.05% +$225
1.5% +$981 (hit royal flush)

I adjusted the average net royal win to get a net loss of $3.43,
pretty close to the expected net loss of $3.42

this assumes a random machine and perfect strategy, with a non-random
machine strategy probably doesn't matter

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kls9036" <ksunderland@h...> wrote:

Playing through $600 per hour, for example, I should be losing $125-
150 per hour (at 75-80% ER), right? And others don't lose like that
either - the machines are usually packed and people stay at them a
long time. I "spy on" my neighboring players from time to time to
see if I can spot anyone playing correct strategy (haven't so far)
or to see what their balance is, and people generally lose at a
pretty leisurely pace.

#15

There must be SOME way to tell them apart. D. McK.

nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:

IGT is now making non-random machines (aka video lottery, aka Class
II) that look exactly like their random (Class III/Nevada) machines
vegas sun article:
http://tinyurl.com/34fa3
fortunately these are not legal in the state of Nevada

> Karen,
>
> If the Game Kings carry the IGT logo, then they would be have to be
> random, or else IGT is opening itself up to liability.
>
> I was under the impression the an agreement between NYS and the
> participating Indian tribes forbade the installation of true slot
> machines. Perhaps this has been changed, since I believe Seneca
> Niagara also has true video poker machines.
>
> I wouldn't count on randomness in an unregulated jurisdiction such
as
> New York, though.
>
> Dave

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···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Dave" <wolverines72@y...> wrote: