vpFREE2 Forums

Another NSUD Quandary

#1

I have been practicing this version of Deuces Wild and came
across another slightly confusing hand.

Dealt: King, Ten and 5 of heats
            Queen Diamonds
            3 Spades

The correct hold is to throw all 5 cards away
Nothing = 1.6196
K & 10 Hearts = 1.6167

If you change the 3 of spades to a 2 you obviously have 3 to
a wild royal: 2 = 5.06568
If you change the 3 of spades to either the 5, 10, Queen or
King of Spades you obviously have a pair: Pair = 2.7339
If you change the 3 of spades to the Jack of spades you have
4 to an outside straight possibility: Outside Straight = 2.5532
If you change the 3 of spades to a 9 or Ace of spades you have
an Inside Straight possibility: Inside Straight = 1.70215
These higher values are obvious.

However:
If you change the 3 of spades to either the 4, 6, 7, or 8
of spades the EV is:
8 = 1.5962
7 = 1.59465
6 = 1.60155
4 = 1.61265
(and as stated before)
3 = 1.6196
King & 10 of hearts = 1.6167
Only the 3 has a higher EV than the 1.6167 of the K-10 of
hearts.

The 8 has a slightly higher EV than the 7 and obviously, we
have a gradually increasing EV as the 5th card gets smaller
after the 7.

Okay, what is happening and why?

Thanks,
Bob

#2

The 8 has a slightly higher EV than the 7 and obviously, we
have a gradually increasing EV as the 5th card gets smaller
after the 7.

Okay, what is happening and why?

Thanks,
Bob
  
Why a redraw that discards a 6 is better than a redraw that discards a
7 is for the same reason as in your other question. It's primarily in
the difference in the number of straights that they each make, since
there are more straights that a 7 penalizes than there are that a 6
penalizes. But in comparing redraws that discard an 8 with redraws
that discard a 7, the answer lies elsewhere, since, by themselves, 7s
and 8s each penalize the same number of straights. The difference has
something to do with why redraws and lone deuces prefer suited
discards, since a second penalty, whether flush or straight, hurts the
hand less than the first penalty does. How many straights a redraw
makes involves how many straight possibilities have how many
penalties, where the difference involves how differently the 7 and the
8 penalize straights in combination with the other cards in the hand.
As with your other question, the easiest way to see it is to list
every way that a redraw can make a straight and determine how many
times to what extent each such possibility is penalized. There are
redraws, probably approximately, if not exactly, as many as there are
in which changing a 7 to an 8 increases the value, as in the case you
mentioned, in which changing an 8 to a 7 would increase the value.

#3

futrend wrote:

I have been practicing this version of Deuces Wild and came
across another slightly confusing hand ...

A suggestion for getting your hands around optimal holds in a game:

EV for a hold basically comes down to the number of winning hands of
each type that can formed from that hold and the respective payouts
for those hand types.

Using a feature such as the "Analyze any Hand" in winpoker, you can
examine a specific hand/hold and view the various number of pairs, 2
pairs, straights, flushes, etc that can be formed from it. Most such
software then lets you change the value of any card and see the
revised values.

You can see how EV's change for the various possible holds from each
hand and how the rankings of those holds shift as you change cards.
Through a trial and error exercise, changing various card values and
suits, you can get a first hand view on what drives the answers to
questions as you pose here.

- Harry