vpFREE2 Forums

Another Kind of VP Promo/part two

#1

In a message dated 10/22/06 10:57:34 AM US Mountain Standard Time,
harry.porter@verizon.net writes:

···

GRAYTLEEGRAY wrote:
> Now would you play NSUD or 9/6 Jacks which are available in abundance
> on the floor and in bartops in $1? The one $1 10/7 DB upstairs in
> the Mississippi Lounge will be busy and is a non TITO clunker.
>
> Just what percentage of Full Houses are naturals in a Wild Card game
> like NSUD? Any Full House is one in 38 hands.

Giving this no more than 5 minutes of thought for the moment (plus the
time to compose this reply), my gut instinct is very strong that NSUD
is the better choice. Someone who works through this in detail may
come up with otherwise, but I'd wager even money on NSUD.

A wild FH always takes the form of two pair plus a deuce. If the hold
were a random event (not chosen), then you'd expect an equal
distribution betweeen natural and wild FH's, since from any given 2
pair, there's an equal number of ways to complete each type of FH.

Thinking about FH's formed from the hold of a single pair or two pair,
once again I believe there's an even split in the expected number of
natural/wild FH's formed on the draw.

Things get swayed a bit because of the possibility of forming a wild
FH from a long deuce hold, for which there no equivalent natural card
hold. This suggests that there's going to be a modestly higher number
of wild FH's formed than natural.

However, since in a game like JB one in 86 hands are FH's, the one in
38 frequency for NSUD allows for a modest predominance in the number
of wild FH's over natural without significantly reducing the overall
frequency of natural FH's.

Given the .18% ER advantage of NSUD over JB, I feel pretty good that
any skewness of NSUD FH's toward wild ones would be insufficient to
reduce the .6% value of the promo for JB enough to make NSUD the
lesser attractive of the two.

- Harry

****
Let's not think about this one too much. But it does change things up to get
to examine an oddball promo for full houses instead of quads and royals.

Thanks for taking a look.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

In a message dated 10/22/06 10:57:34 AM US Mountain Standard Time,
harry.porter@... writes:

> GRAYTLEEGRAY wrote:
> > Now would you play NSUD or 9/6 Jacks which are available in

abundance

> > on the floor and in bartops in $1? The one $1 10/7 DB

upstairs in

> > the Mississippi Lounge will be busy and is a non TITO clunker.
> >
> > Just what percentage of Full Houses are naturals in a Wild

Card game

> > like NSUD? Any Full House is one in 38 hands.
>
>
> Giving this no more than 5 minutes of thought for the moment

(plus the

> time to compose this reply), my gut instinct is very strong that

NSUD

> is the better choice. Someone who works through this in detail

may

> come up with otherwise, but I'd wager even money on NSUD.
>
> A wild FH always takes the form of two pair plus a deuce. If

the hold

> were a random event (not chosen), then you'd expect an equal
> distribution betweeen natural and wild FH's, since from any

given 2

> pair, there's an equal number of ways to complete each type of

FH.

>
> Thinking about FH's formed from the hold of a single pair or two

pair,

> once again I believe there's an even split in the expected

number of

> natural/wild FH's formed on the draw.
>
> Things get swayed a bit because of the possibility of forming a

wild

> FH from a long deuce hold, for which there no equivalent natural

card

> hold. This suggests that there's going to be a modestly higher

number

> of wild FH's formed than natural.
>
> However, since in a game like JB one in 86 hands are FH's, the

one in

> 38 frequency for NSUD allows for a modest predominance in the

number

> of wild FH's over natural without significantly reducing the

overall

> frequency of natural FH's.
>
> Given the .18% ER advantage of NSUD over JB, I feel pretty good

that

> any skewness of NSUD FH's toward wild ones would be insufficient

to

> reduce the .6% value of the promo for JB enough to make NSUD the
> lesser attractive of the two.
>
> - Harry
>
>
>
>
>

****
Let's not think about this one too much. But it does change

things up to get

to examine an oddball promo for full houses instead of quads and

royals.

I think your gut instinct is right, Harry. And Gray, I love solving
puzzles like this when I have the time. Not too much time this
morning but I did a little work on Frugal.

Frugal speeds up the process. First I choose the game. Then click
on Strategy Charts, click View Strategy Charts, click Add
Statistics, click Appeared and Cycle, then go back to the strategy
chart. This gives me some base statistics to go by that I don't
have to do longhand.

NSUD
Flop aces/threes or threes/aces 54,145
Flop 3 aces or 3 threes and convert 66,512.19
Flop 2 pair aces/threes and convert 19,278.43
Flop pair Aces or threes and convert 21,937.88
I don't think redrawing 5 cards adds much
so to heck with it.

Hopefully, I have all the scenarios for making the bonus hands
covered here. If I don't then it is an even better play. The above
averages to making a bonus hand every 7644.9 games. 40 bets divided
by 7644.9 gives a .5232% add-on. So it looks like NSUD is the
choice.

I haven't been to Laughlin since just after the biker shootout but
they used to have 9/6/5 double double jackpot. Are they gone now,
Gray?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, GRAYTLEEGRAY@... wrote: