GRAYTLEEGRAY wrote:
Now would you play NSUD or 9/6 Jacks which are available in abundance
on the floor and in bartops in $1? The one $1 10/7 DB upstairs in
the Mississippi Lounge will be busy and is a non TITO clunker.
Just what percentage of Full Houses are naturals in a Wild Card game
like NSUD? Any Full House is one in 38 hands.
Giving this no more than 5 minutes of thought for the moment (plus the
time to compose this reply), my gut instinct is very strong that NSUD
is the better choice. Someone who works through this in detail may
come up with otherwise, but I'd wager even money on NSUD.
A wild FH always takes the form of two pair plus a deuce. If the hold
were a random event (not chosen), then you'd expect an equal
distribution betweeen natural and wild FH's, since from any given 2
pair, there's an equal number of ways to complete each type of FH.
Thinking about FH's formed from the hold of a single pair or two pair,
once again I believe there's an even split in the expected number of
natural/wild FH's formed on the draw.
Things get swayed a bit because of the possibility of forming a wild
FH from a long deuce hold, for which there no equivalent natural card
hold. This suggests that there's going to be a modestly higher number
of wild FH's formed than natural.
However, since in a game like JB one in 86 hands are FH's, the one in
38 frequency for NSUD allows for a modest predominance in the number
of wild FH's over natural without significantly reducing the overall
frequency of natural FH's.
Given the .18% ER advantage of NSUD over JB, I feel pretty good that
any skewness of NSUD FH's toward wild ones would be insufficient to
reduce the .6% value of the promo for JB enough to make NSUD the
lesser attractive of the two.
- Harry