Another huge loss at HET AC property

[samford]

I had the misfortune (lol) of getting the 25X RC muliplier symbol
at Bally's AC on Sept. 4th.

Much to my chagrin, I decided to play the $25 9/6 JOB machines (I
usually play the 99.97% JWD).

With $110,000 coin in, I only received one Quad and one Full House.
In addition, I am almost positive that I was dealt back a discarded
card on two separate occasions.

I had a similar experience playing the $25 JOB at Showboat two
months ago.

With a $10,000 bankroll, I can always play for a whole week at the
Venetian and/or the Mirage in LV. I never to seem to experience
the extreme negative swings that I experience at HET AC.

Am I just another paranoid Aadvantage player or is there something
not kosher goiing on at HET AC properties?

Your thoughts are appreciated!

[whitejeeps]

I know we all heard it; worth repeating.....Just because your
paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get ya!

I've wondered the same thing. Never thought I got same card back.
Never played much above 5s though.

Cheers.....

.
.

I had the misfortune (lol) of getting the 25X RC muliplier symbol
at Bally's AC on Sept. 4th.

Much to my chagrin, I decided to play the $25 9/6 JOB machines (I
usually play the 99.97% JWD).

With $110,000 coin in, I only received one Quad and one Full

House.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "sjs5572z" <sjs5572z@...> wrote:

In addition, I am almost positive that I was dealt back a discarded
card on two separate occasions.

I had a similar experience playing the $25 JOB at Showboat two
months ago.

With a $10,000 bankroll, I can always play for a whole week at the
Venetian and/or the Mirage in LV. I never to seem to experience
the extreme negative swings that I experience at HET AC.

Am I just another paranoid Aadvantage player or is there something
not kosher goiing on at HET AC properties?

Your thoughts are appreciated!

[VpKing77_vpking77]

I had the misfortune (lol) of getting the 25X RC muliplier symbol
at Bally's AC on Sept. 4th.

Much to my chagrin, I decided to play the $25 9/6 JOB machines (I
usually play the 99.97% JWD).

With $110,000 coin in, I only received one Quad and one Full

House.

In addition, I am almost positive that I was dealt back a

discarded

card on two separate occasions.

I had a similar experience playing the $25 JOB at Showboat two
months ago.

With a $10,000 bankroll, I can always play for a whole week at the
Venetian and/or the Mirage in LV. I never to seem to experience
the extreme negative swings that I experience at HET AC.

Am I just another paranoid Aadvantage player or is there something
not kosher goiing on at HET AC properties?

Your thoughts are appreciated!

Someone had to pay somewhere for Bob Dancer's $500,000 day at the
MGM in Las Vegas. You just happen to be the one chosen out of all
the VP players in the country. Seriously, I have gone 10 cycles
without a 4 of kind and I know several others who have done the same.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "sjs5572z" <sjs5572z@...> wrote:

[Chandler1]

Frustrating loss I'm sure, but not that unusual. If you are playing $125
per hand, your roll/loss is 80 units ($10,000) in under 900 hands. I've
lost 80 units in an hour playing JB plenty of times. More than I can count.
Don't cry for me. I'm playing quarters or dollars. The dearth of FHs was
pretty unlucky. Maybe someone with Dunbar's session/trip BR analyzer can
give you some hard figures.

Chandler

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
sjs5572z
Sent: Wednesday, September 06, 2006 2:49 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Another huge loss at HET AC property

I had the misfortune (lol) of getting the 25X RC muliplier symbol
at Bally's AC on Sept. 4th.

Much to my chagrin, I decided to play the $25 9/6 JOB machines (I
usually play the 99.97% JWD).

With $110,000 coin in, I only received one Quad and one Full House.
In addition, I am almost positive that I was dealt back a discarded
card on two separate occasions.

I had a similar experience playing the $25 JOB at Showboat two
months ago.

With a $10,000 bankroll, I can always play for a whole week at the
Venetian and/or the Mirage in LV. I never to seem to experience
the extreme negative swings that I experience at HET AC.

Am I just another paranoid Aadvantage player or is there something
not kosher goiing on at HET AC properties?

Your thoughts are appreciated!

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

[dddddmike]

9% loss rate (if we're talking $10K) is pretty bad for JOB, but we're
talking 880 hands of play. You were actually shorted only one quad,
theoretically. I recently had a (3 day) trip where I lost at over a 6%
rate over 9600 hands. Now THAT'S ugly, and seems darn near
impossible. Recently at another HET casino, I personally witnessed
someone lose at an 8% rate over 10,000+ hands playing JOB perfectly.

I guess everyone has their horror stories, but my point is your result
over 880 hands isn't all that uncommon. Crappy, but far from
impossible.

I also have a casino where I have lost heavily 5 times (weekends)
despite having decent plays, and I must admit that while this happens I
come up with all sorts of ideas. I go with the "rational" explanation
and so I return, but I'm starting to wonder if the rational explanation
is really insanity; i.e., doing the same thing over and over again but
expecting a different result.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "sjs5572z" <sjs5572z@...> wrote:

Am I just another paranoid Aadvantage player or is there something
not kosher goiing on at HET AC properties?

Your thoughts are appreciated!

[tomflush1]

I've only averaged a 90.5 % return on $ 9/6 jacks at AC properties. This has only been over 300,000 hands, so , I always say - you need a million hands to see the long run.

best wishes...tom

···

----- Original Message ----- From: "Chandler" <omnibibulous1@comcast.net>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, September 06, 2006 9:49 PM
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Another huge loss at HET AC property

Frustrating loss I'm sure, but not that unusual. If you are playing $125
per hand, your roll/loss is 80 units ($10,000) in under 900 hands. I've
lost 80 units in an hour playing JB plenty of times. More than I can count.
Don't cry for me. I'm playing quarters or dollars. The dearth of FHs was
pretty unlucky. Maybe someone with Dunbar's session/trip BR analyzer can
give you some hard figures.

Chandler

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
sjs5572z
Sent: Wednesday, September 06, 2006 2:49 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Another huge loss at HET AC property

I had the misfortune (lol) of getting the 25X RC muliplier symbol
at Bally's AC on Sept. 4th.

Much to my chagrin, I decided to play the $25 9/6 JOB machines (I
usually play the 99.97% JWD).

With $110,000 coin in, I only received one Quad and one Full House.
In addition, I am almost positive that I was dealt back a discarded
card on two separate occasions.

I had a similar experience playing the $25 JOB at Showboat two
months ago.

With a $10,000 bankroll, I can always play for a whole week at the
Venetian and/or the Mirage in LV. I never to seem to experience
the extreme negative swings that I experience at HET AC.

Am I just another paranoid Aadvantage player or is there something
not kosher goiing on at HET AC properties?

Your thoughts are appreciated!

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

[Cogno_Scienti]

<<I've only averaged a 90.5 % return on $ 9/6 jacks at AC properties. This
has only been over 300,000 hands, so , I always say - you need a million
hands to see the long run.>>

With that result, I think it's much more likely that the game is gaffed or
your calculations are in error than that you were unlucky enough to have
that low a return.

Cogno

[Harry_Porter]

sjs5572z wrote:

I had the misfortune (lol) of getting the 25X RC muliplier symbol
at Bally's AC on Sept. 4th.

Much to my chagrin, I decided to play the $25 9/6 JOB machines (I
usually play the 99.97% JWD).

With $110,000 coin in, I only received one Quad and one Full House.
I had a similar experience playing the $25 JOB at Showboat two
months ago. With a $10,000 bankroll ...

I hope you gather that you were seriously underbankrolled for your
session. Rescaling your play/stakes for us more modest players, most
active $.25 Jacks players wouldn't look for $100 to survive a sour
hour. A 15% loss in the short-term on Jacks is fairly commonplace.

Next time that 25x multiplier surfaces, stick to your $5 3-play --
even at 1/2 the coin-in per hour, it'll serve you well in your trek to
that Mercedes.

- Harry

[Harry_Porter]

tomflush wrote:

I've only averaged a 90.5 % return on $ 9/6 jacks at AC properties.
This has only been over 300,000 hands, so, I always say - you need a
million hands to see the long run.

Cogno Scienti replied:

With that result, I think it's much more likely that the game is
gaffed or your calculations are in error than that you were unlucky
enough to have that low a return.

I think we're talking about a return other than the standard
coin-out/coin-in ... possibly (machine cash out)/(cash fed in)?

If it is coin-in/coin-out, then we're talking about a $140K+ loss in
something that's likely less than 400 hours. I'd have gone running
well within the first $40K -- I can think of far too many other more
satisfying indulgences for $300+/hr.

- Harry

[glen_bob]

Tom Flush wrote:

I've only averaged a 90.5 % return on $ 9/6 jacks at

AC properties.
This has only been over 300,000 hands<<

For the mathematically challenged, that's a loss of $142,500.
Right?

GB

···

---------------------------------
Do you Yahoo!?
Everyone is raving about the all-new Yahoo! Mail.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[dddddmike]

I think Tom means he has retained 90.5% of his "bankroll" for the
game, because if he really lost at a 9.5% rate for 300,000 hands (in
which case you would be corret at $142,500), he has reached the outer
limits of the possibilities of 9/6 JOB, so far out that it would be
more likely that the game is rigged and/or lightning struck every
machine he played right before he got there, every time.

On the other hand, retaining 90.5% of a "bankroll," whatever that may
be, over 300K hands is absolutely on the dart board.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, sibercat <glenbob@...> wrote:

Tom Flush wrote:
>>I've only averaged a 90.5 % return on $ 9/6 jacks at
AC properties.
This has only been over 300,000 hands<<

For the mathematically challenged, that's a loss of $142,500.
Right?

GB

---------------------------------
Do you Yahoo!?
Everyone is raving about the all-new Yahoo! Mail.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Dunbar]

Frustrating loss I'm sure, but not that unusual. If you are

playing $125

per hand, your roll/loss is 80 units ($10,000) in under 900 hands.

I've

lost 80 units in an hour playing JB plenty of times. More than I

can count.

Don't cry for me. I'm playing quarters or dollars. The dearth of

FHs was

pretty unlucky. Maybe someone with Dunbar's session/trip BR

analyzer can

give you some hard figures.

Chandler

Hey, I've got that software!

The original poster said $110,000 coin-in, which is 880 plays at
5x$25. The chance of losing a $10,000 bankroll before 880 plays are
completed is 24%. Another way of saying that is that there is a 24%
chance you would be $10,000 behind at some point in the first 880
plays.

If you have enough bankroll to withstand the early swings, then there
is a 15% chance you would be $10,000 or more behind at the end of 880
plays ($110,000 coin-in).

The calc (with 8000 trials) took about 9 secs with Dunbar's Risk
Analyzer for Video Poker, v1.5, on my slow 5-yr-old desktop.

Bonus info: There is a 12% chance you would have been $10,000 AHEAD
at some point during the first 880 plays, but only a 7% chance of
being $10,000+ ahead at the end of 880 plays.

--Dunbar

From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On

Behalf Of

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Chandler" <omnibibulous1@...> wrote:

-----Original Message-----
sjs5572z
Sent: Wednesday, September 06, 2006 2:49 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Another huge loss at HET AC property

I had the misfortune (lol) of getting the 25X RC muliplier symbol
at Bally's AC on Sept. 4th.

Much to my chagrin, I decided to play the $25 9/6 JOB machines (I
usually play the 99.97% JWD).

With $110,000 coin in, I only received one Quad and one Full House.
In addition, I am almost positive that I was dealt back a discarded
card on two separate occasions.

I had a similar experience playing the $25 JOB at Showboat two
months ago.

With a $10,000 bankroll, I can always play for a whole week at the
Venetian and/or the Mirage in LV. I never to seem to experience
the extreme negative swings that I experience at HET AC.

Am I just another paranoid Aadvantage player or is there something
not kosher goiing on at HET AC properties?

Your thoughts are appreciated!

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

[Harry_Porter]

"Maybe someone with Dunbar's session/trip BR analyzer can
give you some hard figures"

Dunbar replied:

Hey, I've got that software!

Do you, now ...

In general play, experience quite possibly provides the best
indication of play risks and loss exposure.

That said, when it comes to a special promotion -- particularly one
where you jump to higher stakes, and a loss translates to a relatively
permanent drain on your bankroll -- Dunbar's calculator is an
invaluable (I'd suggest "essential") tool in assessing whether you can
"go the distance" with the funds you allocate and the probability of
coming out ahead.

For myself, it's transitioned me from countless tedious simulations
with Frugal vp to a series of speedy analysis runs that typically take
less than 30 sec (in most, less than 10 -- the exception when I'm
looking to a VERY comprehensive number of trials for reassurance).

If you consider tossing a grand at a promotion even once, check it out
-- it's another case of "penny wise, pound foolish" if you don't. (MS
Excel, ver 2000 or later, required to use.)

http://www.shoplva.com/ProductDetail.cfm?ItemNumber=1463

- Harry

[Chandler1]

I thought you might;-)

Chandler

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
dunbar_dra
Sent: Saturday, September 09, 2006 5:42 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Another huge loss at HET AC property

Maybe someone with Dunbar's session/trip BR
analyzer can

give you some hard figures.

Chandler

Hey, I've got that software!

[vivalas777]

Enjoy the wide range of information on this site. You all are
fantastic.

What is the most economical transportation from the airport to Sam's
Town.

Thank you in advance.

Viv

[Cielaszyk1]

Enjoy the wide range of information on this site. You all are
fantastic.

What is the most economical transportation from the airport to Sam's
Town.

Thank you in advance.

Viv

Depends on how many are in your party. The last time we did it by cab,
it cost about $20 going to ST and about $22 coming from ST back to the
air port (more traffic delays). There were three in our party. The
shuttles like Bell Trans would have been more expensive for the three of
us. If you are alone, then check the shuttle rates. I think they were
around $12 per person. Someone else could give the bus schedule but I
think it would require at least one transfer.

If you wanted to be really cheap, take a cab to Hooters/Tropicana and
then take the free ST bus.

Dennis
vp-connoisseur

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[pesach_kremen1]

Avoid the taxis at all costs -they charge $3.20 to get in plus $1.20 airport fee in addition to time and mileage of $2.00/mile + 20 cents time stopped every 37 seconds. With the new improved and gretaer frequency service on flamingo you can tkae either the 108 or 109 from the airport and transfer at flamingo to Sams Town. You can also transfer from the 109 at Harmon to #213 (this bus runs less often though). go to www.catride.com for schedules.

Cielaszyk <cacti-az@cox.net> wrote: >

Enjoy the wide range of information on this site. You all are
fantastic.

What is the most economical transportation from the airport to Sam's
Town.

Thank you in advance.

Viv

Depends on how many are in your party. The last time we did it by cab,
it cost about $20 going to ST and about $22 coming from ST back to the
air port (more traffic delays). There were three in our party. The
shuttles like Bell Trans would have been more expensive for the three of
us. If you are alone, then check the shuttle rates. I think they were
around $12 per person. Someone else could give the bus schedule but I
think it would require at least one transfer.

If you wanted to be really cheap, take a cab to Hooters/Tropicana and
then take the free ST bus.

Dennis
vp-connoisseur

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

···

---------------------------------
All-new Yahoo! Mail - Fire up a more powerful email and get things done faster.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Michael_Boutot]

Being cheap when I moved from Mass to apt near Sams Town took 109 Bus
to 213 (202 would have been better as runs more often). I was toting
90-100 pounds of luggage (2 big bags with 1 overweight) before anyone
says can't bring large luggage on bus. Cost was $2.50 which is cheaper
than shoe leather for the walk

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vivalas777" <pkdaniel@...> wrote:

Enjoy the wide range of information on this site. You all are
fantastic.

What is the most economical transportation from the airport to Sam's
Town.

Thank you in advance.

Viv

[Dunbar]

Thanks, Harry! I'm glad you've found my program useful, and I very
much appreciate your taking the time to say so!

--Dunbar

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

In general play, experience quite possibly provides the best
indication of play risks and loss exposure.

That said, when it comes to a special promotion -- particularly one
where you jump to higher stakes, and a loss translates to a

relatively

permanent drain on your bankroll -- Dunbar's calculator is an
invaluable (I'd suggest "essential") tool in assessing whether you

can

"go the distance" with the funds you allocate and the probability of
coming out ahead.

For myself, it's transitioned me from countless tedious simulations
with Frugal vp to a series of speedy analysis runs that typically

take

less than 30 sec (in most, less than 10 -- the exception when I'm
looking to a VERY comprehensive number of trials for reassurance).

If you consider tossing a grand at a promotion even once, check it

out

-- it's another case of "penny wise, pound foolish" if you don't.

(MS

···

Excel, ver 2000 or later, required to use.)

http://www.shoplva.com/ProductDetail.cfm?ItemNumber=1463

- Harry