How likely is it for two reasonably experienced VP players to play
28,000 hands of NSUD between them and never see the four ducks? In
three six hour sessions at the 50¢ level that's exactly what happened.
What's the longest you've gone without the deuces?
Brian
And Yet It Happened at Fort McDowell Indian Casino AZ
That's approximately 5 1/4 cycles. The probability of not hitting in 5
1/4 cycles is approximately 0.5%.
JBQ
···
On 12/17/05, Brian Lee <gl_bryan@yahoo.com> wrote:
How likely is it for two reasonably experienced VP players to play
28,000 hands of NSUD between them and never see the four ducks?
I should add for reference that it's roughly the same probability as
hitting straight flush in 1 hand of NSUD.
JBQ
···
On 12/17/05, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@gmail.com> wrote:
That's approximately 5 1/4 cycles. The probability of not hitting in 5
1/4 cycles is approximately 0.5%.
Thank you. I kind of thought that to be the case. I don't think we'll
be going back to that casino. I'm not saying they have a modified
program in the machines but after three years of playing in Laughlin
and Vegas, winning and losing, this really stood out as odd - and
expensive.
Brian
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@g...>
wrote:
I should add for reference that it's roughly the same probability as
hitting straight flush in 1 hand of NSUD.JBQ
> That's approximately 5 1/4 cycles. The probability of not hitting
in 5
···
On 12/17/05, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@g...> wrote:
> 1/4 cycles is approximately 0.5%.
Not sure if its any consolation but I have been through a similar
experience (different part of the country)..then one day I got 3 sets
in less than an hour. Has anyone else in the casino complained about
not ever seeing large hits?
Thank you. I kind of thought that to be the case. I don't think
we'll
be going back to that casino. I'm not saying they have a modified
program in the machines but after three years of playing in
Laughlin
and Vegas, winning and losing, this really stood out as odd - and
expensive.
Brian
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@g...>
wrote:
>
> I should add for reference that it's roughly the same probability
as
> hitting straight flush in 1 hand of NSUD.
>
> JBQ
>
> > That's approximately 5 1/4 cycles. The probability of not
hitting
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Brian Lee" <gl_bryan@y...> wrote:
> On 12/17/05, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@g...> wrote:
in 5
> > 1/4 cycles is approximately 0.5%.
>
It's true that the chance of not hitting quad ducks in 28000 plays
is about 0.5%. It would be a mistake to conclude that there is a
99.5% chance the game is not fair. Anytime you have an open-ended
undefined "experiment", you have to discount the unlikelihood of the
result somewhat. If you had set out to play 28000 hands ahead of
time to test the fairness of the game with regard to quad ducks,
then your result would be strong evidence that the game was unfair.
In your case, you might have alternately observed a fair amount of
quads, but an "alarming" shortage of wild-card RF's. Or, you might
have stopped after 5000 hands, because of other very poor results.
This is a common problem with "bad result" reporting. There are a
lot of things one could look at, and choosing what to focus on after-
the-fact lessens the significance of what is reported. And having
no preset amount of play also lessens it.
Of course, I'm not saying I personally would rush back to test the
game more rigorously! ;>)
--Dunbar
How likely is it for two reasonably experienced VP players to play
28,000 hands of NSUD between them and never see the four ducks? In
three six hour sessions at the 50¢ level that's exactly what
happened.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Brian Lee" <gl_bryan@y...> wrote:
What's the longest you've gone without the deuces?
Brian
I understand what you're saying. Our mindset was simply to play NSUD
when we heard that they exsisted at the local indian casino. We
didn't set out to test. And not hitting 4 deuces during the first
six hour session didn't even phase us - other than wishing we had.
By the end of the second six hours we we're concerned and found
ourselves paying more attention to the frequency of other hands and
it was within what one would expect. My RNG observations on the
third put the session right out of the text book, in the zone, all
except the four deuces. So, I don't know. Thanks,
Brian
It's true that the chance of not hitting quad ducks in 28000 plays
is about 0.5%. It would be a mistake to conclude that there is a
99.5% chance the game is not fair. Anytime you have an open-ended
undefined "experiment", you have to discount the unlikelihood of
the
result somewhat. If you had set out to play 28000 hands ahead of
time to test the fairness of the game with regard to quad ducks,
then your result would be strong evidence that the game was unfair.In your case, you might have alternately observed a fair amount of
quads, but an "alarming" shortage of wild-card RF's. Or, you
might
have stopped after 5000 hands, because of other very poor results.
This is a common problem with "bad result" reporting. There are a
lot of things one could look at, and choosing what to focus on
after-
the-fact lessens the significance of what is reported. And having
no preset amount of play also lessens it.Of course, I'm not saying I personally would rush back to test the
game more rigorously! ;>)--Dunbar
>
> How likely is it for two reasonably experienced VP players to
play
> 28,000 hands of NSUD between them and never see the four ducks?
In
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@h...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Brian Lee" <gl_bryan@y...> wrote:
> three six hour sessions at the 50¢ level that's exactly what
happened.
> What's the longest you've gone without the deuces?
> Brian
>
Thank you. I kind of thought that to be the case. I don't think
we'll
be going back to that casino. I'm not saying they have a modified
program in the machines but after three years of playing in
Laughlin
and Vegas, winning and losing, this really stood out as odd - and
expensive.
Brian
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@g...>
wrote:
>
> I should add for reference that it's roughly the same probability
as
> hitting straight flush in 1 hand of NSUD.
>
> JBQ
>
> > That's approximately 5 1/4 cycles. The probability of not
hitting
in 5
> > 1/4 cycles is approximately 0.5%.
I've had the same experience ... in Las Vegas. The first times I
played at Fiesta Henderson I went almost 30K hands on FPDW without
hitting 4 ducks. I've also had another experience going over 40K
hands without hitting a jackpot that should hit every 3.7K hands.
The facts is that while the probabilities of these events is low the
more you gamble the liklihood of something like this happening
approaches 100%.
Personally, I doubt the game is rigged. The best way to determine
this is to talk with or watch other players. If everyone is
experiencing the same results then I think you'd have a good case to
report them.
Dick
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Brian Lee" <gl_bryan@y...> wrote:
> On 12/17/05, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@g...> wrote:
I hate to say it but I'm glad you told me about your experience. I'm
encouraged to believe both of our experiences were simply bad luck.
And I guess if I'm willing to accept things like two royals within
an hour, or two sets of back to back deuces, I should be at least a
little understanding if the 4 ducks take a vacation for 28,000
hands. I didn't want to believe that an IGT machine would be rigged -
even if it was in an Arizona indian casino.
Thank you for the input - I do feel better
Brian
I've had the same experience ... in Las Vegas. The first times I
played at Fiesta Henderson I went almost 30K hands on FPDW without
hitting 4 ducks. I've also had another experience going over 40K
hands without hitting a jackpot that should hit every 3.7K hands.The facts is that while the probabilities of these events is low
the
more you gamble the liklihood of something like this happening
approaches 100%.Personally, I doubt the game is rigged. The best way to determine
this is to talk with or watch other players. If everyone is
experiencing the same results then I think you'd have a good case
to
···
report them.
Dick
There is statistically a distribution called the poisson distribution that covers things like this. While it's unlikely it's not out of the ordinary. Now if u got the ducks 10 times would u be complaining about it? I had a trip last year in which i got 5 royals and based on the number of hands I played the poisson distribution said the odds of it happening were 326:1 -thus please be aware that your experience isn't that impossible.
Brian Lee <gl_bryan@yahoo.com> wrote: How likely is it for two reasonably experienced VP players to play
28,000 hands of NSUD between them and never see the four ducks? In
three six hour sessions at the 50¢ level that's exactly what happened.
What's the longest you've gone without the deuces?
Brian
vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
···
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