Yes, I apologize for the misplaced decimal. I did mean .375,
thus the 99.54 prior to the offer. I do not think I mis-stated
the offer. I provided exactly what is printed on the offer with
the heading of "Receive up to $10,000 CASH back based upon your
earned theoretical during your stay". The chart provided is
exactly what the offer states and there is no other information
provided.
I assumed it is a 5% to 25% additional cash back and not a
replacement for the .375 regualr Platinum CB. A bonus kick
back "based on your earned theoretical", not a % return of
actual losses, or in place of regular cash back.
I was only thinking it might be the best way to do the minimum
coin in to renew Platinum for the next 12 months. A higher
theo would make it easier to get to a higher "bonus". I was
assuming nothing would ever make this a great play, but maybe
a best way to get back to Platinum.
I used their New Year's Eve offer in order to get a 3 night
free New Year's Eve room and party for a friend. I had a New
Years offer at the Paris. I later got them invited to the Paris
party so the extravagant Planet Hollywood dinner party went
unused. However, the four of us celebrated New Year's together
on the strip all comped!
I went over and played Bonus Poker that weekend to satisfy
what I thought they expected from me for the offer. I do not
remember exactly how many points but I made sure it meet the
next year's Gold requiement of 750 points and what I thought
was expected for the New Year's Celebration offer. I now have
at least 800 points, maybe up to 1,100 from memory. It would
not require 5,200 additional points.
Extra "prime" strip rooms, offers and other perks are the main
reason for maybe renewing Platinum. I was not goint to renew
Platinum at Planet Hollywood after August, but this made me think
and thus the reason for asking for help analyzing this "theo"
Cash back offer. It might be an expensive way to have a spare
strip bedroom and offers for friends!
Thanks
Bob
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:
futrend wrote:
> > > I have received this offer from Planet Hollywood with 2 free
> > > nights for June 21st and 22nd and/or June 27th and 28th.
> > > You can receive up to $10,000 CASH BACK based upon your
earned
> > > theoretical during your stay!
> > >
> > > Cash will distributed as Follows
> > > 750 - 1,499 in theoretical Get 5% Cash Back
> > > 1,500 - 2,999 in theoretical Get 10% Cash Back
> > > 3,000 - 4,999 in theoretical Get 15% Cash Back
> > > 5,000 -12,499 in theoretical Get 20% Cash Back
> > > 12,500 and up in theoretical Get 25% Cash Back
> > >
> > > If 8/5 Bonus Poker (99.16) is the highestt EV in this casino,
how
> > > analyze this offer?
futrend added:
> Maybe I should have offered a little more information.
> I am currently Platinum and the cash back is 37.5% for that
> card level.
>
> However, as things stand now, I will drop to the Gold Level
> sometime in August. Does not this cash back make the game,
> Bonus Poker, a 99.542% game? I was wondering if this offer
> might be the best choice for returning to the Platinum Level
> before August (and good for the next 12 months)? $40 equal
> a point and 5,200 points are required for Platinum. So minimum
> $1,733 is reduced by 10% or a $1,559 loss. Isn't this like
> playing a game with an EV estimated 99.64% during this period
> of time? Wouldn't it take a little over $360,000 to get 15%
> CB for a theoretical loss of $2,550, or similar to an 99.69%
> play? I think that I understand your idea of the benefit to
> play to a break point if possible, but that would be a much
> greater level of coin in needed than for the card upgrade.
> Am I missing something?
There are some open questions here. The first is introduced by the
manner in which you state cb rates.
I presume that you intend to state the standard Platinum cb rate
as .375% (e.g. BP 99.166 + .375 = 99.541) ... and by extension, Gold
is .25%.Is the "cash back" under this offer similarly mis-stated and,
for example, what's being returned is a kicker against your standard
cashback (ranging from .05% to .25%). Or is the offer returning
"cash back" that's not a kicker nor a percentage of coin-in, but
instead as a percentage of your actual loss (with nothing returned
in the event of a win)? Or, yet again, is what's being returned is
a percentage of your theoretical loss?
All of these yield starkly different scenarios under which the offer
would be valued.
------
And, of course, there's the discussed question of "theoretical".
Rarely is theo set at the optimal play hold on the game (e.g. 0.834%
in this case). Instead, it's typically set to what the house looks
to
actually hold on the machine involved. In my own experience, I've
seen theos on 9/6 Jacks or better range from 1% to 5%.
Typically, holds seem to run about 2%-3% over the optimal play
hold -- running thinnest where a bank of games receives very strong
skilled play. You might want to ballpark the hold in this case
somewhat conservatively at 2%-2.5% in taking a stab at analyzing this
promo.
So here's a quick run at one scenario:
Let's say a percentage of theo is being returned in lieu of
cashback. The game you choose to play has a 3% theo assigned. You
play through $40K.
This means that the theo on the play is $1200, for cashback of $60
(at a rate of 5%). That translates to cb of 0.15% against the
standard calculation based on coin-in.
This promotion doesn't become advantageous over standard play cb
until that effective cb reaches .375%. On a game theo of 3%, that
takes a rebate rate in excess of 12.5% (.03% x 12.5% = .375), or
playing to a theo under this promo of $3000 -- which translates to
$100,000 coin-in.
On the other hand, if the assigned game theo is 5%, then the minimum
threshold rebate rate is 7.5% -- requiring a theo of $1500 (10%
rebate) and $30,000 coin-in.
···
- Harry
