vpFREE2 Forums

Analysis of a Promotion- Episode One

#1

Promos are what put the games we play over the 100% mark. A promo
has two parts, the cost of getting an entry and the payoff/odds of
winning.

Here is one I can't quite figure out as far as the payoff/odds go.

Given:

100 tickets for drawing
$1k prize fund

If the drawing is for one ticket and one winner then each ticket has
a value of $10.

But, the $1k is won in four parts. Four different drawings for $100,
$200, $300 and then $400. You can't win more than one. Is a drawing
ticket still worth $10?

Assume each of the four drawings has 100 valid tickets, since more
can be added by current and new contestants between drawings to
compensate for the invalid ones still in the drum held by previous
winners.

This is some sort of conditional probability thing isn't it?

BS

#2

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bluestreak86001" <graytleegray@a...>
wrote:

Promos are what put the games we play over the 100% mark. A promo
has two parts, the cost of getting an entry and the payoff/odds of
winning.

Here is one I can't quite figure out as far as the payoff/odds go.

Given:

100 tickets for drawing
$1k prize fund

If the drawing is for one ticket and one winner then each ticket

has

a value of $10.

But, the $1k is won in four parts. Four different drawings for

$100,

$200, $300 and then $400. You can't win more than one. Is a

drawing

ticket still worth $10?

Assume each of the four drawings has 100 valid tickets, since more
can be added by current and new contestants between drawings to
compensate for the invalid ones still in the drum held by previous
winners.

If a given ticket will last through all four drawings (assuming it's
not drawn before the fourth drawing), then its value is indeed $10,
or $1+2+3+4. However, AT THE TIME that it fails to win drawing #1,
its value drops to $9; failing to win #2 as well, its value drops to
$7, and so forth. If, however, the ticket is drawn at any stage, its
value is now the amount it wins at that time. The net value of $10
is the sum of the probabilities (4/100) of having the ticket drawn
(for an average win of $250) and the 96/100 probability of having it
not drawn (and its value dwindle away to nothing). 4/100 or .025 X
$250= $10.