The casinos don't care - they must win. If Mikey doesn't win someone else would snap off the jackpot. Mikey by now is annuitized anyway.
···
Sent from my iPhone
An Old War Horse
At the Blackjack Hall of Fame, winners are required to post a picture. It's not enforced that the picture has to be of "them." Richard Munchkin used a picture of his father. John Chang used a picture of himself when he was about 10 years old (which looks surprisingly like John at almost 60). Another winner posted a picture of a movie star.
With this background, it made me wonder if Mickey is spoofing all of us and posting a picture of somebody else. It strikes me as something that would appeal to his sense of humor.
How would we know?
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Nordo wrote: The casinos don't care - they must win. If Mikey doesn't win someone else would snap off the jackpot. Mikey by now is annuitized anyway.
I disagree completely. Unless you mean it literally. The casinos themselves don't care --- because casinos are a building. But the owners and managers can care a lot.
You're assuming casino owners in Montana are "enlightened." Some are, of course, but many of these are Mom and Pop "stores" and somebody coming in and hitting them for several thousand can be stressful. You've seen players get upset at pretty small losses. I've never played in Montana, but I bet some of these same types of personalities run the bars Mickey hits and get upset every time he whacks them.
Which is one reason, I assume, he stays on the move and doesn't overstay his welcome at any one place.
···
________________________________
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Bob, there are just a couple of slot parlors here where if I wanted to wreck them I could go in and beat them out of a couple thousand a day. But I don't. These little slot parlors can't take those kind of losses. So I don't try to wreck them. But I will take a little money when I'm there.
I'll give a typical day on the job out hunting for plays. I'm looking for short term advantages left by the ploppies. On this particular day I went through 6 casinos and found 12 short term advantages. I'll try to describe them without giving to much information away. I'm giving theoretical frequencies on these plays.
Play 1. This play has a frequency of 344 games to achieve my objective. I was at 26% advantage. It's a $1 bet and the game plays at 20 games per minute so it's about a 17 minute play per average. I ran average on the play and made $80.
Play 2. This play has a frequency of 1551 to achieve my objective. It's a 50 cent bet and the game plays at 40 games per minute so it's about a 40 minute play. It was at 8% so the average earn would be $62 but I ran rough and only made $15.
Play 3. This is a little dinger play that only take a couple of minutes. The frequency is 72. Believe it or not it's just a five cent bet. It has an average earn of $10. I ran average and made $8.
Play 4. Another little dinger play with a frequency of 36 that only takes a couple of minutes. It's just a five cent bet too. It has an average earn of $15. I made $18 on the play.
Play 5. This play had a frequency of 709. It's a 50 cent bet and the game plays at 40 games per minute so it was an average 18 minute play. It was at 20% advantage so carried a theoretical earn of about $70. I overperformed and made $115.
Play 6. Same play as Play 2 but with different numbers in the progressive. It was at 15% advantage so a theoretical earn of $116. I under performed and only made $80.
Play 7. Same play as Play 2 and 6. I got my butt kicked. I lost $46.
Play 8. Same play as Play 4 that just takes a couple of minutes and carries just a nickel bet. It has an average earn of $15 but I way over performed and made $70.
Play 9. Same play as Play 1. Frequency is 344. I made $90 on this play.
Play 10. Has a frequency of 318. Just a 25 cent bet. The game plays at 25 spins per minute. It was at 35% advantage so carried a theoretical earn of $28. I slightly overperformed and made $35.
Play 11. Same play as Play 10. I got my butt kicked. I lost $22.
Play 12. Same play as Play 1 and 9. I under performed and only made $45.
So I made $488 for the day. I went through six "casinos" to find these 12 plays. I always knock down everything I can find in any one casino. And since I knocked down everything that was available in these six casinos then I have no reason to return to them until they have 6 to eight weeks soak time for plays to build back up again. Meanwhile, I have hundreds of other casinos to pick on while these six get their soak time.
So as you can tell I'm not really knocking the hell out of any one casino. Individual wins are not that big. But they add up. Take care.
Mickey
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I disagree for the following reason.
Mickey is hitting progressives at these bars or whatever places he goes to. That progressive was going to be hit by somebody sometime so why would the proprietor care who hits it ?
The locals who built up that jackpot might care if some outsider snapped up their progressive, but unless the casino owners really care if customer "A" wins instead of customer "B" then I can't see where they would care otherwise.
Regards
A.P.
···
________________________________
From: "Bob Dancer bobdancervp@hotmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: "vpFREE@yahoogroups.com" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2016 4:20 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse
Nordo wrote: The casinos don't care - they must win. If Mikey doesn't win someone else would snap off the jackpot. Mikey by now is annuitized anyway.
I disagree completely. Unless you mean it literally. The casinos themselves don't care --- because casinos are a building. But the owners and managers can care a lot.
You're assuming casino owners in Montana are "enlightened." Some are, of course, but many of these are Mom and Pop "stores" and somebody coming in and hitting them for several thousand can be stressful. You've seen players get upset at pretty small losses. I've never played in Montana, but I bet some of these same types of personalities run the bars Mickey hits and get upset every time he whacks them.
Which is one reason, I assume, he stays on the move and doesn't overstay his welcome at any one place.
________________________________
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A question came to mind while I was perusing this thread and thinking about
whether the mom and pop owners would be upset about someone coming through
(and thanks, Mickey, for all the stories and play breakdowns): How does
Montana handle capped progressives? They can't pay out more than $800 on a
single hit, correct? So if Mickey runs into a keno play that is at the $800
cap, is the progressive meter now going back to the owner or is it going
into a side pot that will be used to refresh the jackpot after it is hit?
I'd hope it's the latter, but if it were the former then somebody coming
through regularly would make a (probably small) dent in the owner's pocket.
Either way, the owners probably aren't thrilled because if a non-local is
winning, that means the locals aren't winning as much and may feel cheated
and stop playing, which is also bad for the owner. But if someone's only
coming through every month or two and does a hit and run without being a
slot club member, how many owners are going to remember that it's the same
guy? Not many, I would guess.
···
On Sun, Mar 13, 2016 at 2:34 PM, Albert Pearson ehpee@rogers.com [vpFREE] < vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
I disagree for the following reason.
Mickey is hitting progressives at these bars or whatever places he goes
to. That progressive was going to be hit by somebody sometime so why would
the proprietor care who hits it ?The locals who built up that jackpot might care if some outsider snapped
up their progressive, but unless the casino owners really care if customer
"A" wins instead of customer "B" then I can't see where they would care
otherwise.Regards
A.P.________________________________
From: "Bob Dancer bobdancervp@hotmail.com [vpFREE]" <
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: "vpFREE@yahoogroups.com" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2016 4:20 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War HorseNordo wrote: The casinos don't care - they must win. If Mikey doesn't win
someone else would snap off the jackpot. Mikey by now is annuitized anyway.I disagree completely. Unless you mean it literally. The casinos
themselves don't care --- because casinos are a building. But the owners
and managers can care a lot.You're assuming casino owners in Montana are "enlightened." Some are, of
course, but many of these are Mom and Pop "stores" and somebody coming in
and hitting them for several thousand can be stressful. You've seen players
get upset at pretty small losses. I've never played in Montana, but I bet
some of these same types of personalities run the bars Mickey hits and get
upset every time he whacks them.Which is one reason, I assume, he stays on the move and doesn't overstay
his welcome at any one place.________________________________
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Soltris, yes the money rolls over when the meter caps at $800 and I'll give an example. I rarely have a losing day but every once in a while it happens. I have to explain the game first, so those of you that get bored with math just skip over it.
Its a $1 keno progressive. The game has been out for about 4 years and I've only gotten maybe 70 plays on it because it is hard to find a playable number.
You can play anywhere from two to ten numbers. The best payscale is the 3-spot. It pays 1 bet for 2 out of 3 and 26 bets for 3 out of 3. That's a 49.95% return.
There is something else going on in the game. While you are playing your numbers the machine makes five picks. This is very important. There are two meters on the game and both of them have to do with the five machine picks. There is the 4 out of 5 meter. Any time 3 of the 5 machine picks hit it puts 1 bet into the 4 out of 5 meter. When you hit 4 out of 5 machine picks you get the money in the meter plus an extra 10 bets.
Since the frequency for 3 out of 5 is 11.91 it is equivelent to an 8.4% progressive meter. Since the frequency for 4 out of 5 is 82.7 the extra 10 bets is worth 12.09%. So adding that to the 49.95% we are now up to 70.4363%.
Now for the 5 out of 5 meter. Any time you hit 3 out of 5 it puts 2 bets in the 5 out of 5 meter. This is equivelent to a 16.7926% meter.
Any time you hit 4 out of 5 it puts 3 bets in the 5 out of 5 meter. This is equivalent to a 3.6276% meter.
So we have a 5 out of 5 meter that is equivalent to 20.4202%. How do you like that for meter strength, folks? So now we have the game up to 90.8565% over all payback.
The cost to run one cycle is easy to calculate. We just discount out the 5 out of 5 meter and we are taking a 29.5637% drop between 5 out of 5 hits. It a $1 bet game and the frequency of 5 out of 5 is 1550.57.
So 1550.57 * 29.5636% = $458
In one cycle you are expected to put $316 in the 5 out of 5 meter.
1550.57 * 20.4202% = $316
I vulture this game so I'm looking to find a game where the ploppies left at least $260 in the meter.
$260 + 316 = $576
So $576 minus the cost, $458, makes this play worth $118. The game plays at 40 games per minute so the average seat time to hit the 5 out of 5 is about 40 minutes. So my time in a minimum play spot is worth at least $180 an hour.
Except....there is the variable in all this called the capped meter ($800). Its hard for me to quantify but I know the average cost is a little higher because of the capped meter. At $260 the meter will cap in about 1.7 cycles. So if I run badly on a play I know I can get my clock cleaned. But the money will roll over into the next progressive if I get in the cap trap.
I ran pretty good at this game through my first 60 plays. Every play was a winner except 2, and they were just small losses. But one day last year I ran into a nightmare play which I will explain in my next post.
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One day last year I walk into a joint and find this game with $672 in the meter. I'm licking my chops. Its big win territory. I'm most likely going into the cap trap but I have insurance with such a big number. So I sit down and start playing.....and playing....and playing. So 4.6 cycles and $1900 later I finally hit the darn thing. So I was stuck $1100.
The meter came back capped at $800. So here we go again. I start playing....and playing....and playing. So 3.3 cycles and $1600 later I finally hit the solid five again.
So then I was stuck $1900 and the meter came back capped at $800 again. This time I got lucky as it only took me only 1.5 cycles to hit the next solid five. But the game played well and I made up $500 of the money.
Now stuck just $1400 the meter came back capped again. This time it only took me half a cycle to take it off and I had made up another $500.
This time the meter came back on $482. I was thinking "Damn, if I get back in the cap trap again I'm going to shoot myself." But it came off pretty quick and I made up another $385. So I wound up losing $515 on the play. But worse than that the play soaked up most of the day and I wasn't able to make much money after that.
I'm well ahead of this game through about 70 plays. But anytime I get in the cap trap I just have to grin and bear it.
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"Since the frequency for 3 out of 5 is 11.91"
How's this calculated please? General info on slot machine calculations available?
Thx.
···
On Mar 13, 2016, at 16:09, mickeycrimm@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Since the frequency for 3 out of 5 is 11.91
Well, its easy to get frequencies from the Wizard of Odds Keno Calculator. But from scratch I use the John Scarne method.
First we determine the total number of combinations that make a 5-spot out of 80 numbers:
80X79X78X77X76/5X4X3X2X1 = 24,040,016
Then we have to determine the number of combinations that make 3 out of 5:
(20X19X18/3X2X1) * (60X59/2X1) = 2,017,800
Then we divide the total combinations by the combinations that make 3 out of 5:
24,040,016/2,017,800 = 11.91
If you check the Wiz's keno calculator you will see that he has the same number.
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Thx. Loox like it's all factorials.
···
On Mar 13, 2016, at 18:03, mickeycrimm@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Well, its easy to get frequencies from the Wizard of Odds Keno Calculator. But from scratch I use the John Scarne method.
First we determine the total number of combinations that make a 5-spot out of 80 numbers:
80X79X78X77X76/5X4X3X2X1 = 24,040,016
Then we have to determine the number of combinations that make 3 out of 5:
(20X19X18/3X2X1) * (60X59/2X1) = 2,017,800
Then we divide the total combinations by the combinations that make 3 out of 5:
24,040,016/2,017,800 = 11.91
If you check the Wiz's keno calculator you will see that he has the same number.
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I have to know keno math from scratch because today's online keno calculators are not advanced enough for today's modern keno games. Its not just classic keno anymore. There are all kinds of bizarre games where when certain events happen you may be getting free games, multipliers, extra draws, etc.
On the Wizard's Keno Calculator:
1. There are always 80 balls in the tank. I would change this so you can adjust the number of balls in the tank.
2. You can choose to analyze anywhere from a 1-spot to a 15-spot. I would change this to 1 to 20 spots.
3. There are always 20 balls drawn. I would change this so you can adjust the number of balls drawn up to 50.
In analyzing a keno game I have to know what each segment of the game is worth. If I'm analyzing a game where when a certain event happens I get free games with extra draws then I have to know what the frequency is with the extra draws.
In the case of the 5-spot I did earlier say I get 10 free games with 4 extra draws then this will change the frequencies. In the case of the 3 out of 5 the math would look like this:
(24X23X22/3X2X1) * (56X55/2X1) = 3,116,960
24,040,016/3,116,960 = 7.7126
There are a lot more combinations that make a 3 out of 5 when you get 4 extra draws.
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Thx.
···
On Mar 13, 2016, at 18:42, mickeycrimm@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
I have to know keno math from scratch because today's online keno calculators are not advanced enough for today's modern keno games. Its not just classic keno anymore. There are all kinds of bizarre games where when certain events happen you may be getting free games, multipliers, extra draws, etc.
On the Wizard's Keno Calculator:
1. There are always 80 balls in the tank. I would change this so you can adjust the number of balls in the tank.
2. You can choose to analyze anywhere from a 1-spot to a 15-spot. I would change this to 1 to 20 spots.
3. There are always 20 balls drawn. I would change this so you can adjust the number of balls drawn up to 50.
In analyzing a keno game I have to know what each segment of the game is worth. If I'm analyzing a game where when a certain event happens I get free games with extra draws then I have to know what the frequency is with the extra draws.
In the case of the 5-spot I did earlier say I get 10 free games with 4 extra draws then this will change the frequencies. In the case of the 3 out of 5 the math would look like this:
(24X23X22/3X2X1) * (56X55/2X1) = 3,116,960
24,040,016/3,116,960 = 7.7126
There are a lot more combinations that make a 3 out of 5 when you get 4 extra draws.
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Good response, Mick. Thanx
Bob
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That's me in the picture, Bob. The Black Velvet on the rocks with the Henry's Hard Orange Soda chaser is a dead giveaway.
For those gamblers with access to a computer, there is an easy method to calculate almost any keno problem.
In Excel use HYPGEOMDIST( A, B, C, D ).
A = number of hits
B = number of balls drawn (typically 20)
C = number of spots marked
D = total number of balls (typically 80)
For example to calculate how often you hit 4 when marking 5 spots in a normal keno game, use hypgeomdist(4,20,5,80).
G'luck all,
Gamb00ler
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mickeycrimm@...> wrote :
I have to know keno math from scratch because today's online keno calculators are not advanced enough for today's modern keno games. Its not just classic keno anymore. There are all kinds of bizarre games where when certain events happen you may be getting free games, multipliers, extra draws, etc.
On the Wizard's Keno Calculator:
1. There are always 80 balls in the tank. I would change this so you can adjust the number of balls in the tank.
2. You can choose to analyze anywhere from a 1-spot to a 15-spot. I would change this to 1 to 20 spots.
3. There are always 20 balls drawn. I would change this so you can adjust the number of balls drawn up to 50.
In analyzing a keno game I have to know what each segment of the game is worth. If I'm analyzing a game where when a certain event happens I get free games with extra draws then I have to know what the frequency is with the extra draws.
In the case of the 5-spot I did earlier say I get 10 free games with 4 extra draws then this will change the frequencies. In the case of the 3 out of 5 the math would look like this:
(24X23X22/3X2X1) * (56X55/2X1) = 3,116,960
24,040,016/3,116,960 = 7.7126
There are a lot more combinations that make a 3 out of 5 when you get 4 extra draws.
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That's me in the picture, Bob. The Black Velvet on the rocks with the Henry's Hard Orange Soda chaser is a dead giveaway.
Okay. I believe. You're a better looking guy than I figured!
···
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Thanks for the compliments to everyone. In the screenshot is the play where, if I wanted to, I could knock them for a couple thousand a day until they threw me out or cried uncle. Its a keno game with a $1 bet called Pow'r Hit Plus. When you hit a pay, with the last ball drawn being part of the hit, you get payed 4X the normal pay (This is another case where an online keno calculator won't do you any good. You have to be able to do the math yourself). When you hit 6 out of 8 with the last ball drawn being part of the hit you get the money in the meter.
As you can see in the screenshot the meter is at $509.95. The mistake in this game is that meter is supposed to be resetting at $200. The game is at about 90% with the meter resetting at $200. The frequency of making 6 out of 8 with the last ball drawn being part of the hit is 1408 . So the extra 300 bets adds over 21% to the play.
This game plays at 2900 games an hour on turbo speed. And I'm at over an 11% edge. So this game is worth over $320 an hour on a $2900 an hour wager.
You would think the locals would be tearing this game up. But I write the meters down every time I leave. When I get back I can tell what kind of action the game has been getting. It gets very little activity. Lucky me. But I don't crush them. I'll hit them for somewhere between $500 and $1000. Then I let these multi game machines get soak time for the house to make its money back.
If you are thinking about trying to find my play then you only have 147,000 square miles to cover.
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Mickey wrote: "If you are thinking about trying to find my play then you only have 147,000 square miles to cover."
I wouldn't want to cut into any of your action but it makes me ponder the question. Is there enough action up there for more than one sheep shearer?
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That is a very interesting question you ask, NOTI. It deserves a full answer. It deserves a long story because....it is a long story. None of us are innocent in life. I can tell a very long story just off of your question, NOTI. But its St. Paddy's day and we are all drunk here today. Two Nevada casino hustler's in the out back? I know what happens when two big gambling egos get there selfs isolated isolate with theirselves in Montana. Its not a happy ending story. Two bulls in a china closet.
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