vpFREE2 Forums

An AP question

#1

How to become an AP? Play only when you have an advantage. Add it all up, the ER of the the game plus mailers, multipliers, promotions, points, everything of value.

Casinos all have different criteria for restricting players. They usually don't tell you what you did wrong but most people can make an educated guess. Most common reasons are probably winning too much or playing the good machines too much. But they don't tell you how much is "too much". I've heard many other reasons too.

I don't adhere to the theory that playing some slots will keep us from being restricted, but who knows for sure.

Seems like Jean Scott and Bob Dancer have both written about this subject.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Rod" <vprod618@...> wrote:

  As a casual player I am curious just how to

become an AP. I have read many times that you play
when the multipliers/promos are available. Yet, if
you play ONLY on these days they 86 you, or they
punish you by reducing bounce back or other promos.
If you try to conceal your play by playing slots
aren't you giving away that small percentage you
vied for in the beginning? What's the secret?

#2

Thanks for all your info...I'd better get busy...Rod

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

···

--- On Sun, 11/13/11, savorvpx <savorvpx@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: savorvpx <savorvpx@yahoo.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: An AP question
To: "vpfree@yahoogroups.com" <vpfree@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Sunday, November 13, 2011, 12:35 AM

#3

"...I don't adhere to the theory that playing some slots will keep us from being restricted, but who knows for sure..."

We were about to be restricted 5 years ago and our long-term host told us to start putting in some slot machine time. We now give her ~5% of our $30K/day action on slot machines. That seems to be the sweet spot.
She's still there and we still gamble at the joint when we visit. $500 fp over two days. Fair bet video poker; tournament/drawings. They feed us and we get a nice room. Total EV is reduced by 20%. It's like toking $40 on a $4K royal. Part of the "game."

Think we haven't been restricted because of some modest slot machine action. Nowadays, casino computer programs must flag gamblers that exculsively gamble on postive machines. What hosts use to do manually on each visiting customer can now be done by software.

We (and many here) have been restricted at casino's where we gave them action only on fair bet machines. Keep a low profie.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, savorvpx <savorvpx@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Rod" <vprod618@> wrote:
>
> As a casual player I am curious just how to
> become an AP. I have read many times that you play
> when the multipliers/promos are available. Yet, if
> you play ONLY on these days they 86 you, or they
> punish you by reducing bounce back or other promos.
> If you try to conceal your play by playing slots
> aren't you giving away that small percentage you
> vied for in the beginning? What's the secret?

How to become an AP? Play only when you have an advantage. Add it all up, the ER of the the game plus mailers, multipliers, promotions, points, everything of value.

Casinos all have different criteria for restricting players. They usually don't tell you what you did wrong but most people can make an educated guess. Most common reasons are probably winning too much or playing the good machines too much. But they don't tell you how much is "too much". I've heard many other reasons too.

I don't adhere to the theory that playing some slots will keep us from being restricted, but who knows for sure.

Seems like Jean Scott and Bob Dancer have both written about this subject.

#4

Hope it's evident by now, Dave, that I place considerable weight on your sentiments ...

As background, I've seen the general wisdom of spending some time with slots, but every time I work out the math, I come up that I'd rather slice my wrist and hand over a cup of blood to the casino :wink:

I take it from your numbers that you're targeted something other than the garden variety 9% hold slot.

I don't know how literally I should read some of your numbers (wouldn't fault you for being obscure), but if you're suggesting that you're giving up something like $40/day on $1500 of slot action, that translates (for example) to playing a slot with 97% payout vs 9/6 JB with 99.5%.

If you're playing in a casino which offers a bank in which every machine offers such a guaranteed average machine payout (I've seen suggestions that some use signage suggesting such payouts, but that in truth it's applicable to as few as one machine in the bank), then I can definitely see the wisdom of such play diversion.

<I personally would avoid the analogy to a RF toke, though ... playing $1 machines, $30K/day, you're looking at an expected $40 toke once every 7 days of play on average, not daily -- that's a big difference in out of pocket cost.>

Without such a "97% guaranteed payout" option, I'd be unlikely to consider such a move. Even where average hold might be published as 96%, actual machine holds can vary considerably and there's very limited opportunity to know what the slot you're playing is expected to return. One could easily be giving up $100+ EV on said $1500 of play.

- H.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Dave" <haaljo@...> wrote:

"...I don't adhere to the theory that playing some slots will keep us from being restricted, but who knows for sure..."

We were about to be restricted 5 years ago and our long-term host told us to start putting in some slot machine time. We now give her ~5% of our $30K/day action on slot machines. That seems to be the sweet spot.
She's still there and we still gamble at the joint when we visit. $500 fp over two days. Fair bet video poker; tournament/drawings. They feed us and we get a nice room. Total EV is reduced by 20%. It's like toking $40 on a $4K royal. Part of the "game."

Think we haven't been restricted because of some modest slot machine action. Nowadays, casino computer programs must flag gamblers that exculsively gamble on postive machines. What hosts use to do manually on each visiting customer can now be done by software.

We (and many here) have been restricted at casino's where we gave them action only on fair bet machines. Keep a low profie.

#5

It's been over 4 years since I've been in a Nevada casino. I'm a dinosaur now as far as any kind of useful information I can give anyone because I have no idea what kind of slots they have on the casino floors today. But I do know exactly what I would do should I return to Nevada. The very first casino I walk into I'm not going to go and sit down on a video poker. Instead, I'm going to walk the entire casino and take a look at every slot machine on the floor, along with the video pokers. That is, after I go and get the slot card.

I'm going to take note of any advantage slots I used to play, and of course, spin off any plays I may find. But I'm also going to make at least a cursory inspection of every new game on the floor to see if there are any exploitable features. If I see anything that even remotely looks like it may be exploitable then that game gets a full examination.

Beating a slot machine but showing a loss is an old trick of the trade. Examples that come to mind are Wild Cherry Bonus Pie, Green Stamps, Money Factory. When you get that Pie down to one cherry to go, pull the card. Only a few spins left to fill up that Green Stamp, pull the card. Got the bonus money down to the end of the conveyer belt on the Money Factory, pull the card.

For instance, say you find a Wild Cherry Bonus Pie with just 3 or 4 cherries to go to fill up the pie. I'm gonna use ballpark numbers. There are 30 coins in the basket and you're expection is about a 100 coin bonus for filling up the pie. You're looking at a 60 to 70 coin loss to fill up the Pie. On these type of slots you are almost always behind when you fill up the Pie. About the only time you might not be is when you hit the 3 Sevens. So it's pretty simple. When you get the Pie down to 1 cherry to go pull the card out and stick it in your pocket. You always look like a loser that way. You're getting about a 60 or 70 coin win but showing a 60 or 70 coin loss.

You can hear all kinds of different things about pulling the card like:

"Pulling the card doesn't work anymore."

"When you pop in the last cherry reach up and jerk the card out before the credits rack up! The coin out won't register!"

"Jerk the card out and stick it back in upside down before the credits rack up! That way the coin out won't register."

I don't know what to believe about all that. So I just pull the card before the play is completed to insure I'm looking like a loser.

#6

Here is one thing that is absolutely certain about "pulling the card": there is now a way that is being used to prevent your wins from being hidden by the card pull. I discovered this on one of the Norwegian cruise ships. As long as there are credits left in the machine, pulling the card does not matter. All plays, wins, and losses will continue to accrue to the person whose card was last in the machine. So pulling a card with trip Aces won't have any effect- you might as well leave it in. Only cashing out the machine will stop their following of your play, and you can't do that in th middle of a hand.

When this will hit land-based casinos, I don't know - I haven't seen it there yet, but it is definitely there on at least one Norwegian ship, more probably all of them. I only found out, not because I was doing it, but because someone had left $.05 in credit in the machine, and I asked a host why the machine wouldn't recognize my card. She pointed out the nickel credit and once that was cashed out, the machine accepted my card.

If you cash out under the circumstances Mickey was talking about, I guess zeroing out and then playing would work, but unless you hit on the next spin, your subsequent losses won't be registering.

Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you can’t win. -Lazarus Long
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein

________________________________

You can hear all kinds of different things about pulling the card like:

"Pulling the card doesn't work anymore."

"When you pop in the last cherry reach up and jerk the card out before the credits rack up! The coin out won't register!"

"Jerk the card out and stick it back in upside down before the credits rack up! That way the coin out won't register."

I don't know what to believe about all that. So I just pull the card before the play is completed to insure I'm looking like a loser.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

I don't think our slot machine action is @ .91 EV. Sure hope not.
No way to tell but the state statistics has off-the-strip @ ~.94.

We limit our slot machine action to three low jackpot progressive machines. Those are the types we were pointed to five years ago.

If we ever again come across something that's wongable (sigh) all bets are off. There's a bank of "must hit by $2K" at green valley that I keep eyeing.....

The VP is FP DB, DDB, JP except at stations it's now a lot of FPJB (or better) as the cashback/points is quite attractive as explained by other's on this board and in their articles.

We are doing this almost monthly for a week from Boston. There's nothing here on the East Coast so we do 2,200 miles.

Just booked our December trip on jet blue. Looks like $900 in free play plus a drawing and 2 tourneys (so far) from the 4 joints. Nice.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

Hope it's evident by now, Dave, that I place considerable weight on your sentiments ...

As background, I've seen the general wisdom of spending some time with slots, but every time I work out the math, I come up that I'd rather slice my wrist and hand over a cup of blood to the casino :wink:

I take it from your numbers that you're targeted something other than the garden variety 9% hold slot.

I don't know how literally I should read some of your numbers (wouldn't fault you for being obscure), but if you're suggesting that you're giving up something like $40/day on $1500 of slot action, that translates (for example) to playing a slot with 97% payout vs 9/6 JB with 99.5%.

If you're playing in a casino which offers a bank in which every machine offers such a guaranteed average machine payout (I've seen suggestions that some use signage suggesting such payouts, but that in truth it's applicable to as few as one machine in the bank), then I can definitely see the wisdom of such play diversion.

<I personally would avoid the analogy to a RF toke, though ... playing $1 machines, $30K/day, you're looking at an expected $40 toke once every 7 days of play on average, not daily -- that's a big difference in out of pocket cost.>

Without such a "97% guaranteed payout" option, I'd be unlikely to consider such a move. Even where average hold might be published as 96%, actual machine holds can vary considerably and there's very limited opportunity to know what the slot you're playing is expected to return. One could easily be giving up $100+ EV on said $1500 of play.

- H.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Dave" <haaljo@> wrote:
>
> "...I don't adhere to the theory that playing some slots will keep us from being restricted, but who knows for sure..."
>
> We were about to be restricted 5 years ago and our long-term host told us to start putting in some slot machine time. We now give her ~5% of our $30K/day action on slot machines. That seems to be the sweet spot.
> She's still there and we still gamble at the joint when we visit. $500 fp over two days. Fair bet video poker; tournament/drawings. They feed us and we get a nice room. Total EV is reduced by 20%. It's like toking $40 on a $4K royal. Part of the "game."
>
> Think we haven't been restricted because of some modest slot machine action. Nowadays, casino computer programs must flag gamblers that exculsively gamble on postive machines. What hosts use to do manually on each visiting customer can now be done by software.
>
> We (and many here) have been restricted at casino's where we gave them action only on fair bet machines. Keep a low profie.

#8

On banking type slot games, where I'm playing to collect bonuses, I'm not concerned with subsequent losses not being recorded after I pull the card. What I don't want recorded is the bonus win on the end.

If I do my homework I can always assign an average cost to spin off a play. In the Cherry Pie situation I described I was looking at collecting an expected 130+ coin bonus for filling up the Pie. Let's say the Pie is 4 cherries to go and the average cost per cherry is 20 coins. Per the average I'm looking at showing a 60 coin loss to pop in three cherries. Once I pop in the third cherry I stop playing and pull the card. And if I ran into the situation you described I would also hit the cashout button and start over.

I'm not concerned about the expected 20 coin loss to pop in the fourth cherry not being recorded. What I don't want recorded is the 130+ coin bonus I get for popping the fourth cherry in. In this situation I'm looking at putting an additional 10 to 20 coins in the basket while filling up the Pie, so my expection is to collect a 140 to 150 coin bonus on the end. So in this situation I'm looking at showing an average 60 coin loss per play, but in actuality, booking a 60 to 70 coin win.

I've been in many situations where the house had good video poker.... and advantage slots. I played them both. In retrospect, I was sandwiching slot play around my video poker play. Were I active in Nevada today I would look for these same type of situations.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, GURU PERF <guruperf@...> wrote:

If you cash out under the circumstances Mickey was talking about, I >guess zeroing out and then playing would work, but unless you hit on >the next spin, your subsequent losses won't be recorded.

#9

Dave wrote:

I don't think our slot machine action is @ .91 EV. Sure hope not.
No way to tell but the state statistics has off-the-strip @ ~.94.

We limit our slot machine action to three low jackpot progressive
machines. Those are the types we were pointed to five years ago.

Thanks for the reply (which I abbreviated ... I'll let those interested refer back into the thread for the full context).

I'll try not too excessively dissect here, but if I understand correctly, you're giving 5% of daily $30K coin-in on these slots in order to improve your "survivability".

In the specific case where your host alerted you to the possibility of being cut from promotions without adding some slot play, there's little question the move was advisable. But I'd be loathe to adopt the strategy as a general precaution.

If you're going to add some slot play to your mix, certainly "off strip" LV is a reasonable venue in which to do it. And I'll credit your choice has being likely to have an ER of 95%. Still, that's a daily EV cost of $75, which is a .25% ER handicap against your $30K coin-in.

Your earlier estimate of this being a 20% EV cut would mean that you estimate your daily vp EV at $425. Were it that high, then everything appears quite rational. But, (again, reading between the lines), I would estimate your daily FP at $200-$250, and your overall vp ER (with points) at no higher than 100.2% (before factoring FP), or an additional EV of $60. On a combined EV of, say, $300, you're giving up 25% of your vp EV to slot play.

The numbers still look good, given your strong 1% ER vp advantage (though I'd deem the slot cost "of consequence"). For someone playing on a slimmer advantage, (say, even a cut to .75% ER), I'd deem the cost excessive and inadvisable except in reaction to a clear threat to offers.

Bottom line, I'm saying that while the slot play is clearly a smart move for you, I personally would be hesitant to suggest that others consider such a shift under general circumstances as a "survival" move. It's simply an expensive prospect.

(Should be clear, though, that I consider it fertile "food for thought" ... Thanks!)

- H.