vpFREE2 Forums

Am I doomed already?

#1

Howdy:

I practice on Winpoker.I play .25 9/6 JOB.Let's say I play 600Hds/hr.

I take a $100 bankroll and play till I hit a RF or bust.This usually
takes 2 to 4 hours.Early in this adventure I have played 8hrs and I
am down $400 dollars.

If the odds of hitting a Royal is about 40000 to 1 and I play 600
Hds/hr. that means I have to play 66.67 hours minus 8 played (58.67)
before that magic moment occurs.

The JP is $1000 for the Royal.I am down $400.

How in the world can I come close to even at this rate?

If I lose $100 in an averaged 3 hours session and I have 58.67 hours
to go I need about 20 sessions.

Thats $2000 bucks to win $1000 plus the 400 I am already down.

What is wrong with this picture?Is this Newbie doomed already or do I
need some experienced insight.

Ralph

#2

You are doing OK. 9/6 is a losing game. They don't build casinos on nothing.
David K

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: rafoil38
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Friday, July 11, 2003 3:19 PM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Am I doomed already?

  Howdy:

  I practice on Winpoker.I play .25 9/6 JOB.Let's say I play 600Hds/hr.

  I take a $100 bankroll and play till I hit a RF or bust.This usually
  takes 2 to 4 hours.Early in this adventure I have played 8hrs and I
  am down $400 dollars.

  If the odds of hitting a Royal is about 40000 to 1 and I play 600
  Hds/hr. that means I have to play 66.67 hours minus 8 played (58.67)
  before that magic moment occurs.

  The JP is $1000 for the Royal.I am down $400.

  How in the world can I come close to even at this rate?

  If I lose $100 in an averaged 3 hours session and I have 58.67 hours
  to go I need about 20 sessions.

  Thats $2000 bucks to win $1000 plus the 400 I am already down.

  What is wrong with this picture?Is this Newbie doomed already or do I
  need some experienced insight.

  Ralph

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              ADVERTISEMENT
             
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

That's exactly what I've been asking for several months now and I'm totally
inline with what you're seeing.

If you get an answer beyond the, "JOB is not a 100% game", please let me
know.
I've seen those same results even playing FPDB and FPDW.

···

-----Original Message-----
From: rafoil38 [mailto:BANDSTAN…@…COM]
Sent: Friday, July 11, 2003 12:19 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Am I doomed already?

  Howdy:

  I practice on Winpoker.I play .25 9/6 JOB.Let's say I play 600Hds/hr.

  I take a $100 bankroll and play till I hit a RF or bust.This usually
  takes 2 to 4 hours.Early in this adventure I have played 8hrs and I
  am down $400 dollars.

  If the odds of hitting a Royal is about 40000 to 1 and I play 600
  Hds/hr. that means I have to play 66.67 hours minus 8 played (58.67)
  before that magic moment occurs.

  The JP is $1000 for the Royal.I am down $400.

  How in the world can I come close to even at this rate?

  If I lose $100 in an averaged 3 hours session and I have 58.67 hours
  to go I need about 20 sessions.

  Thats $2000 bucks to win $1000 plus the 400 I am already down.

  What is wrong with this picture?Is this Newbie doomed already or do I
  need some experienced insight.

  Ralph

        Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
              ADVERTISEMENT

  vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga

  Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

There is no way to plan a royal. Stats help but are not absolute
guides. Trying to outguess them makes no sense. $100 is too low a
bankroll & your time horizon is too short. If can only play that
much/long just play for fun or not at all.

Howdy:

I practice on Winpoker.I play .25 9/6 JOB.Let's say I play

600Hds/hr.

I take a $100 bankroll and play till I hit a RF or bust.This

usually

takes 2 to 4 hours.Early in this adventure I have played 8hrs and I
am down $400 dollars.

If the odds of hitting a Royal is about 40000 to 1 and I play 600
Hds/hr. that means I have to play 66.67 hours minus 8 played

(58.67)

before that magic moment occurs.

The JP is $1000 for the Royal.I am down $400.

How in the world can I come close to even at this rate?

If I lose $100 in an averaged 3 hours session and I have 58.67

hours

to go I need about 20 sessions.

Thats $2000 bucks to win $1000 plus the 400 I am already down.

What is wrong with this picture?Is this Newbie doomed already or do

I

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rafoil38" <BANDSTAND54@A...> wrote:

need some experienced insight.

Ralph

#5

What is wrong with this picture?Is this Newbie doomed already or do

I need some experienced insight.

Ralph

You've got to understand that every game, including the 100% ER games
are subject to an "expected" volitility. Just as ER is a longterm
expectation, variance is a longterm expectation also. IOW, you can't
expect to see either ER or variance look like it's supposed to look
over the period of a few sessions. So whatever your results, they're
subject to the kinds of short term quirks that are unpredictable.

But to answer your question more directly, yes, you are doomed. <g>

lb

#6

You are using waaay too small a sample to prove anything.
If you walk into a casino to play VP with $100, you should be playing nickels to have a reasonable chance of hitting the occasional Royal.
Do not confuse odds of 40,000 to one with expectations of hitting a Royal every 40,000 hands.
Rule 1 You are NEVER Due to hit anything .
Rule 2 If you have just played 39,999 hands of video poker without hitting a Royal, the odds of hitting on the next hand are still 40,000 to one.

Playing 9/6 jb for quarters you are going to last about 3 hours before going bust with that $100 (on average) . Somewhere along the way to infinity you will hit a Royal, it may put you in the plus column depending on when it hits or it might not.

The way to look at it is, as entertainment, for your $100 you had 3 hours of entertainment, some free drinks and maybe even a free meal . If you go to a big production show you will get maybe 2 hours of entertainment plus the costs of drinks and food and parking.

I played a lot of hands before I hit my first Royal.
I have played about a million hands since I set up an exclusive Vegas Bank account in
1998. I am up about $1000 in that account. I have been down about $5000 in that account.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: rafoil38
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Friday, July 11, 2003 3:19 PM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Am I doomed already?

  Howdy:

  I practice on Winpoker.I play .25 9/6 JOB.Let's say I play 600Hds/hr.

  I take a $100 bankroll and play till I hit a RF or bust.This usually
  takes 2 to 4 hours.Early in this adventure I have played 8hrs and I
  am down $400 dollars.

  If the odds of hitting a Royal is about 40000 to 1 and I play 600
  Hds/hr. that means I have to play 66.67 hours minus 8 played (58.67)
  before that magic moment occurs.

  The JP is $1000 for the Royal.I am down $400.

  How in the world can I come close to even at this rate?

  If I lose $100 in an averaged 3 hours session and I have 58.67 hours
  to go I need about 20 sessions.

  Thats $2000 bucks to win $1000 plus the 400 I am already down.

  What is wrong with this picture?Is this Newbie doomed already or do I
  need some experienced insight.

  Ralph

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]