vpFREE2 Forums

Always Play 5 Coins

#1

I totally agree with you that you can't predict anything on a VP machine.The RNG is going to do what it does regardless of what I do.Nobody knows if the next hand is going to be a win or a loss.But if you look at the results over a period of time,you'll see Hot streaks,cold streaks and choppy streaks all of different durations,all spit out by the RNG.Predicting a trend and JUMPING IN on a POSSIBLE trend are 2 different things.To me,EV has to do with the payout of the VP machine for the various hands,So obviously 9/6 for a Full house and Flush will yield a better EV than 8/5.I can't change that.

Let me draw another analogy using the Stock market,regardless of whether it's predictable or not.Traders put indicators on the raw data to help them to decide whether to make a trade or not.One common indicator they use is an EMA(Exponential Moving Average).The EMA is a LAGGING indicator designed to help the Trader get in on a Trend.It doesn't predict anything.It's a trend following indicator.Is the stock going to continue to go up or go down? Nobody knows,but if the trend continues,the EMA will keep you in the trend as long as it continues.Well,my "indicator" is waiting for 1 win to occur which means that it also is a lagging indicator.I'll always miss the first win because I have to wait for it to occur.But if the RNG "desides to deal me lets say 7 wins in a row,I'll be in on the last 6.Just like a trader has to wait for the EMA to cross above the data(which has already started the trend)before he can trade and therefore misses the beginning of the trend,but gets in on the remainder of the trend.The trader isn't trying to predict anything.

In response to my post,Mickey mentioned doing the same thing on a Mult-Denom.machine.So instead of betting between 1 & 5 coins,you could switch between 25 cents and $2.00 and not sacrifice any EV.I like that idea better than my 1-5,But I don't know of any machines in AC with playable paytables that you could do that on.Maybe you or someone else does.

Marc

Original Message-----

···

From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Nov 8, 2011 12:59 am
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

Marc wrote:

I"m not trying to predict anything.I'm trying to jump in on a possible trend.A winning streak must start with a win and a losing streak must start with a loss.So,I wait for the first one and hope it's the start of a good streak.Like they say in the Stock Market,"The trend is your friend".

You're trying to predict how long the streak will last. "Hope" and
expected value have little, if anything, to do with each other. For
all I know, there might be predictable trends in the stock market, but
video poker machines are designed to be completely unpredictable. If
they are predictable, all theoretical payback percentages, including
that 9/6 Jacks or Better has a 99.54% payback, are wrong and would be
trumped by where, in the "streak," one is. What evidence do you have
that such streaks are predictable? Have you ever, for example,
analyzed your results of the next hand after, say, 7 wins in a row?
What would you estimate your advantage to be on the 8th hand? How
would such streaks be programmed into the machine? That sounds much
more complicated than programming them to be random and unpredictable.
Would each result be programmed to increase the probability of the
same result on the next hand?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

Marc wrote:

I totally agree with you that you can't predict anything on a VP machine.The RNG is going to do what it does regardless of what I do.Nobody knows if the next hand is going to be a win or a loss.But if you look at the results over a period of time,you'll see Hot streaks,cold streaks and choppy streaks all of different durations,all spit out by the RNG.Predicting a trend and JUMPING IN on a POSSIBLE trend are 2 different things.

But if the machine is unpredictable, a possible trend could come after
any pattern. A ten hand winning streak is as likely to occur after a
5 hand winning streak as it is after a series of ten hands in which
wins and losses have alternated in streaks of one each.

Let me draw another analogy using the Stock market,regardless of whether it's predictable or not.Traders put indicators on the raw data to help them to decide whether to make a trade or not.One common indicator they use is an EMA(Exponential Moving Average).The EMA is a LAGGING indicator designed to help the Trader get in on a Trend.It doesn't predict anything.

It predicts that the trend will continue. If it's not predictable,
then any particular future trend is as likely after any past pattern.
The trend continuing is as likely as it is reversing.

It's a trend following indicator.Is the stock going to continue to go up or go down? Nobody knows,but if the trend continues,the EMA will keep you in the trend as long as it continues.

If the trend isn't predictable, it can't do that without getting
lucky.

Well,my "indicator" is waiting for 1 win to occur which means that it also is a lagging indicator.I'll always miss the first win because I have to wait for it to occur.But if the RNG "desides to deal me lets say 7 wins in a row,I'll be in on the last 6.Just like a trader has to wait for the EMA to cross above the data(which has already started the trend)before he can trade and therefore misses the beginning of the trend,but gets in on the
remainder of the trend.The trader isn't trying to predict anything.

I don't understand how an unpredictable trend can be exploited. If
it's not predictable, how does anyone know it hasn't ended by the time
it has been recognized?

In response to my post,Mickey mentioned doing the same thing on a Mult-Denom.machine.So instead of betting between 1 & 5 coins,you could switch between 25 cents and $2.00 and not sacrifice any EV.I like that idea better than my 1-5,But I don't know of any machines in AC with playable paytables that you could do that on.Maybe you or someone else does.

Unless he meant it as a form of "free" (in terms of expected value)
recreation, I don't know why Mickey recommended that. The only other
thing I can think of is to adjust the volume of one's play due to
updated bankroll considerations.

#3

Test your indicator out. Say it's a coin flip and you only bet when your indicator tells you to, here are the possible patterns:

100: result: you lose one bet
101: result: you lose one bet
110: result: you win one but lose one
111: result: you win two bets

net result: even

but the 101 and 111 patterns retrigger your indicator, so:

1010: lose one additional bet
1011: win one additional bet
1110: lose one additional bet
1111: win one additional bet

net result: even

and so on

conjecture: your indicator is no better or worse than random when it comes to the net result

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@... wrote:

Well,my "indicator" is waiting for 1 win to occur which means that it also is a lagging indicator.I'll always miss the first win because I have to wait for it to occur.But if the RNG "desides to deal me lets say 7 wins in a row,I'll be in on the last 6.

#4

Tom

I think that what's happening here is that we are getting into a back and forth about what is meant by predicting a trend and following a trend.I chose to follow the last occurance of the data or go with the flow..If there's a loss ,I bet loss.If there's a win ,I bet win.I could have chosen to bet alternates or any other pattern.Again,I believe that I'm not trying to predict anything because you can't.I'm just trying to follow what the data is doing.Sometimes i'm right and sometimes i'm wrong.I'm not using VooDoo or Magic or anything else.If in the end,50% of the time I'm right and 50% of the time I'm wrong,so be it.

I'm not trying to advocate that other people use this method of play.I was just sharing that so far,for the time that I've been playing it,I've done better than when I played 5 coins all the time.I concede that it could very well have been luck and that over the next year,it could all average out.I was just trying to apply a good general rule.If your losing,bet less.If your winning,bet more.In gambling always limit your losses and maximize your wins.And conserve Bankroll.

The disadvantages of this method are: 1) You give up a small amount of EV.And therefore in the long term might actually lose a little more than if you played 5 coins.

                                                        2) You risk the possibility of hitting a Royal at 1 coin.

For me the advantages have been: 1) It seems that you can play longer on the same Bankroll

                                                        2) It seems to give you a smoother ride in terms of downside volitility

                                                        3) I've had a greater percentage of winning sessions even if they were for a small amount.(Again,could have been Luck)

You could elimiate both disadvantages by doing the same thing on a Multi-denomination machine that doesn't penelize you at the lower denominations.I think this is the way I going to go from now on,if I can find the right machine.

Also,I feel this is something to consider:The fact that in most games a large percentage of your wins are in fact pushes means that you only win back what you bet and therefore statistically it would seem to me that they count as zero.Unlike the game of Pick'em in which 9's or better yield a true win.
They don't add or take away from your bankroll.So,when I miss the first win at 5 coins(let's say it was a High Pair),I don't lose anything for doing so,even though I only betted 1 coin and waited for a win to start betting 5.So,in that case,( and I know I'm going to raise some eyebrows on this one)the first win might actually becomes a leading indicator for the rest of whatever duration streak might occur,if it occurs.If it doesn't occur,then I'll lose and maybe catch the next one.

Marc

.

···

-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Nov 8, 2011 11:50 am
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

Marc wrote:

I totally agree with you that you can't predict anything on a VP machine.The RNG is going to do what it does regardless of what I do.Nobody knows if the next hand is going to be a win or a loss.But if you look at the results over a period of time,you'll see Hot streaks,cold streaks and choppy streaks all of different durations,all spit out by the RNG.Predicting a trend and JUMPING IN on a POSSIBLE trend are 2 different things.

But if the machine is unpredictable, a possible trend could come after
any pattern. A ten hand winning streak is as likely to occur after a
5 hand winning streak as it is after a series of ten hands in which
wins and losses have alternated in streaks of one each.

Let me draw another analogy using the Stock market,regardless of whether it's predictable or not.Traders put indicators on the raw data to help them to decide whether to make a trade or not.One common indicator they use is an EMA(Exponential Moving Average).The EMA is a LAGGING indicator designed to help the Trader get in on a Trend.It doesn't predict anything.

It predicts that the trend will continue. If it's not predictable,
then any particular future trend is as likely after any past pattern.
The trend continuing is as likely as it is reversing.

It's a trend following indicator.Is the stock going to continue to go up or go down? Nobody knows,but if the trend continues,the EMA will keep you in the trend as long as it continues.

If the trend isn't predictable, it can't do that without getting
lucky.

Well,my "indicator" is waiting for 1 win to occur which means that it also is a lagging indicator.I'll always miss the first win because I have to wait for it to occur.But if the RNG "desides to deal me lets say 7 wins in a row,I'll be in on the last 6.Just like a trader has to wait for the EMA to cross above the data(which has already started the trend)before he can trade and therefore misses the beginning of the trend,but gets in on the
remainder of the trend.The trader isn't trying to predict anything.

I don't understand how an unpredictable trend can be exploited. If
it's not predictable, how does anyone know it hasn't ended by the time
it has been recognized?

In response to my post,Mickey mentioned doing the same thing on a Mult-Denom.machine.So instead of betting between 1 & 5 coins,you could switch between 25 cents and $2.00 and not sacrifice any EV.I like that idea better than my 1-5,But I don't know of any machines in AC with playable paytables that you could do that on.Maybe you or someone else does.

Unless he meant it as a form of "free" (in terms of expected value)
recreation, I don't know why Mickey recommended that. The only other
thing I can think of is to adjust the volume of one's play due to
updated bankroll considerations.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Marc wrote:

Tom

I think that what's happening here is that we are getting into a back and forth about what is meant by predicting a trend and following a trend.I chose to follow the last occurance of the data or go with the flow..If there's a loss ,I bet loss.If there's a win ,I bet win.I could have chosen to bet alternates or any other pattern.Again,I believe that I'm not trying to predict anything because you can't.I'm just trying to follow what the data is doing.

You say you're not trying to predict anything, but you keep saying
things that reveal that you are. Your phrase "is doing" implies that
you predict the trend will continue. If video poker machines really
are unpredictable, as you say, your tense is wrong. The machine isn't
"doing" anything. It only just did something.

I'm not trying to advocate that other people use this method of play.I was just sharing that so far,for the time that I've been playing it,I've done better than when I played 5 coins all the time.I concede that it could very well have been luck and that over the next year,it could all average out.I was just trying to apply a good general rule.

Your use of the word "could" means that you think that the machines
might be predictable. Why not try the system of only playing when
it's cloudy? If, after a few sessions, you're ahead, would you say
that it could have been luck or, since the result of the machines
aren't correlated with the weather, that it was luck? I think you're
trying to hedge your bets and have it both ways.

If your losing,bet less.If your winning,bet more.

As was the case with your phrase "is doing," if the machines are
unpredictable, your tense is wrong.

In gambling always limit your losses and maximize your wins.And conserve Bankroll.

The disadvantages of this method are: 1) You give up a small amount of EV.And therefore in the long term might actually lose a little more than if you played 5 coins.

                                                       2) You risk the possibility of hitting a Royal at 1 coin.

For me the advantages have been: 1) It seems that you can play longer on the same Bankroll

                                                       2) It seems to give you a smoother ride in terms of downside volitility

Won't always playing 1 coin do both 1) and 2) better than going back
and forth between playing 1 coin and 5 coins?

                                                       3) I've had a greater percentage of winning sessions even if they were for a small amount.(Again,could have been Luck)

Maybe! In 1971, my best friend's favorite baseball team was the
Pirates. Mine was the Orioles. I was addicted to a table baseball
game that used dice and was based on the statistics of each player.
Before the 7th game of the World Series that year, I played a
simulated game which the Orioles won, 5 to 3. I told my friend that
based on the result of that one game, the Orioles were probably going
to win. I've come a long way since then in realizing what it takes to
have an adequate sample size. Your use of the word "could" means that
you have some work to do in that area, also. Most people are amazed
at how far results can deviate from expected value. It takes some
education.

#6

You say you're not trying to predict anything, but you keep saying

things that reveal that you are. Your phrase "is doing" implies that
you predict the trend will continue. If video poker machines really
are unpredictable, as you say, your tense is wrong. The machine isn't
"doing" anything. It only just did something.

Tom,Your right about my tense being wrong,now that I read it.I do mean to say "What the machine just did".I don't mean to say that when I see a win,that I feel there's a greater probability that another win will come up.I'm just arbitrarily using that criteria as a trigger to increase my bet.If that first win ends up being the start of a winning streak,great.If not,then I'll try again after the next win.I chose that particular criteria because if a streak of whatever length is going manifest itself in the future,it must start with 1.I'm not saying that by doing this I'll hit more streaks.It's just the way I've chosen to shuffle my bet.

As far as using the word "could",I'm trying to say that any trigger that I use to increase my bets is probably just as good (or no better)than any other trigger.If I'm going to shuffle my bets,I need some criteria to use in order to that.

If your losing,bet less.If your winning,bet more.

As was the case with your phrase "is doing," if the machines are

unpredictable, your tense is wrong.

OK,I mean to say that "If I've had a loss(past)",I bet less(future).If I've had a win(past),I bet more(future).

Won't always playing 1 coin do both 1) and 2) better than going back

and forth between playing 1 coin and 5 coins?

Yes it would,but then I'd sacrifice ever hitting the 5 coin Royal Jackpot and would always be playing 9/6 at 98.37%

···

-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 2:28 am
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

Marc wrote:

Tom

I think that what's happening here is that we are getting into a back and forth about what is meant by predicting a trend and following a trend.I chose to follow the last occurance of the data or go with the flow..If there's a loss ,I bet loss.If there's a win ,I bet win.I could have chosen to bet alternates or any other pattern.Again,I believe that I'm not trying to predict anything because you can't.I'm just trying to follow what the data is doing.

You say you're not trying to predict anything, but you keep saying
things that reveal that you are. Your phrase "is doing" implies that
you predict the trend will continue. If video poker machines really
are unpredictable, as you say, your tense is wrong. The machine isn't
"doing" anything. It only just did something.

I'm not trying to advocate that other people use this method of play.I was just sharing that so far,for the time that I've been playing it,I've done better than when I played 5 coins all the time.I concede that it could very well have been luck and that over the next year,it could all average out.I was just trying to apply a good general rule.

Your use of the word "could" means that you think that the machines
might be predictable. Why not try the system of only playing when
it's cloudy? If, after a few sessions, you're ahead, would you say
that it could have been luck or, since the result of the machines
aren't correlated with the weather, that it was luck? I think you're
trying to hedge your bets and have it both ways.

If your losing,bet less.If your winning,bet more.

As was the case with your phrase "is doing," if the machines are
unpredictable, your tense is wrong.

In gambling always limit your losses and maximize your wins.And conserve Bankroll.

The disadvantages of this method are: 1) You give up a small amount of EV.And therefore in the long term might actually lose a little more than if you played 5 coins.

2) You risk the possibility of hitting a Royal at 1 coin.

For me the advantages have been: 1) It seems that you can play longer on the same Bankroll

2) It seems to give you a smoother ride in terms of downside volitility

Won't always playing 1 coin do both 1) and 2) better than going back
and forth between playing 1 coin and 5 coins?

3) I've had a greater percentage of winning sessions even if they were for a small amount.(Again,could have been Luck)

Maybe! In 1971, my best friend's favorite baseball team was the
Pirates. Mine was the Orioles. I was addicted to a table baseball
game that used dice and was based on the statistics of each player.
Before the 7th game of the World Series that year, I played a
simulated game which the Orioles won, 5 to 3. I told my friend that
based on the result of that one game, the Orioles were probably going
to win. I've come a long way since then in realizing what it takes to
have an adequate sample size. Your use of the word "could" means that
you have some work to do in that area, also. Most people are amazed
at how far results can deviate from expected value. It takes some
education.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

My real idea about the single line machine I described where you could bet from 5 to 25 coins is something like this:

Say you found an advantage play in some casino. The play is available at quarters, 50 cents, and dollars. And at the quarter level the required bankroll is $5,000....which is exactly what you have. Normally, in order to move up to the 50 cent level you would have to wait for your bankroll to double. But on the machine like I described you could move up to a $1.50 bet at $6,000, $1.75 at $7,000, etc., and hopefully, make it all the way up to the $6.25 bet before they pull the play on you.

On a humorous note, Montana video poker is bass akwards. You got nickel and quarter denoms. But the max bet on either denom is $2 (state law), so the only difference is the credits on winning hands rack up faster on quarters. Betting anywhere from one nickel to 20 nickels, or 1 quarter to 4 quarters, you get 800 for 1 on the royal. So betting $1 the royal pays $800, which is the max jackpot by state law. If you bet anything higher than $1, then $800 is all you're going to get for the royal. If you bet $1.25 the royal pays $800. If you bet $1.50 the royal pays $800. If you bet $2 the royal pays $800. So in effect, the people who bet $2 per hand are turning a 97% game into a 96% game. But I still see people doing it all the time.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

Unless he meant it as a form of "free" (in terms of expected value)
recreation, I don't know why Mickey recommended that. The only other
thing I can think of is to adjust the volume of one's play due to
updated bankroll considerations.

#8

this whole thread interests me, because I've taken to playing 5c Multi almost exclusively, and do something kind of similar. I'm completely unwilling to play single coin - those stories of royals on single coin make me ill - but I *do* play only 20 lines to start, and increase the number of hands as I win.

I think the big difference for me is that I *know* all I'm changing is the amount of money I am wagering. Instead of $25 every deal, I spend between $5 and $25 (slower than usual because I change number of lines constantly) and yes - there is some extra glee when I do happen to catch a 'streak.' Since it's only been recently that I switched from 25c single line, my cash in has skyrocketed even not playing 100 lines.

there is also the benefit that I think it makes me look like I believe in luck, and I'm of the opinion that casinos like superstitious gamblers more than smart gamblers.

In any event, choosing to play less than max coin isn't an option for me - know a little too much about the math, I guess - but don't see anything wrong with changing bets if the EV is the same. I think it pleases that gut instinct that doesn't really understand the nature of randomness, and also does a fine job of preserving bankroll.

Should I be wrong, and there is some way changing number of lines is actually detrimental, please speak up. there's every chance I don't know what I'm talking about, I certainly don't claim to be an expert. I'm only a chick that likes to play, and has had reasonably good luck getting casinos to cover my vacation expenses in exchange for some of my bankroll.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

Marc wrote:

>I totally agree with you that you can't predict anything on a VP machine.The RNG is going to do what it does regardless of what I do.Nobody knows if the next hand is going to be a win or a loss.But if you look at the results over a period of time,you'll see Hot streaks,cold streaks and choppy streaks all of different durations,all spit out by the RNG.Predicting a trend and JUMPING IN on a POSSIBLE trend are 2 different things.

But if the machine is unpredictable, a possible trend could come after
any pattern. A ten hand winning streak is as likely to occur after a
5 hand winning streak as it is after a series of ten hands in which
wins and losses have alternated in streaks of one each.

>Let me draw another analogy using the Stock market,regardless of whether it's predictable or not.Traders put indicators on the raw data to help them to decide whether to make a trade or not.One common indicator they use is an EMA(Exponential Moving Average).The EMA is a LAGGING indicator designed to help the Trader get in on a Trend.It doesn't predict anything.

It predicts that the trend will continue. If it's not predictable,
then any particular future trend is as likely after any past pattern.
The trend continuing is as likely as it is reversing.

>It's a trend following indicator.Is the stock going to continue to go up or go down? Nobody knows,but if the trend continues,the EMA will keep you in the trend as long as it continues.

If the trend isn't predictable, it can't do that without getting
lucky.

>Well,my "indicator" is waiting for 1 win to occur which means that it also is a lagging indicator.I'll always miss the first win because I have to wait for it to occur.But if the RNG "desides to deal me lets say 7 wins in a row,I'll be in on the last 6.Just like a trader has to wait for the EMA to cross above the data(which has already started the trend)before he can trade and therefore misses the beginning of the trend,but gets in on the
>remainder of the trend.The trader isn't trying to predict anything.

I don't understand how an unpredictable trend can be exploited. If
it's not predictable, how does anyone know it hasn't ended by the time
it has been recognized?

>In response to my post,Mickey mentioned doing the same thing on a Mult-Denom.machine.So instead of betting between 1 & 5 coins,you could switch between 25 cents and $2.00 and not sacrifice any EV.I like that idea better than my 1-5,But I don't know of any machines in AC with playable paytables that you could do that on.Maybe you or someone else does.

Unless he meant it as a form of "free" (in terms of expected value)
recreation, I don't know why Mickey recommended that. The only other
thing I can think of is to adjust the volume of one's play due to
updated bankroll considerations.

#9

The options in AC are on machines with good EV's are not too many.That's why I did the 1-5 on the 9/6 JOB.Still had an overall EV of 99.32%.I agree that changing bets does do a good job of preserving bankroll.But I'm on the hunt for some good Multi-D. machines.Do you play in Vegas or AC?

Marc

···

-----Original Message-----
From: campus_chic13 <campus_chic13@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Mon, Nov 14, 2011 5:33 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

this whole thread interests me, because I've taken to playing 5c Multi almost exclusively, and do something kind of similar. I'm completely unwilling to play single coin - those stories of royals on single coin make me ill - but I *do* play only 20 lines to start, and increase the number of hands as I win.

I think the big difference for me is that I *know* all I'm changing is the amount of money I am wagering. Instead of $25 every deal, I spend between $5 and $25 (slower than usual because I change number of lines constantly) and yes - there is some extra glee when I do happen to catch a 'streak.' Since it's only been recently that I switched from 25c single line, my cash in has skyrocketed even not playing 100 lines.

there is also the benefit that I think it makes me look like I believe in luck, and I'm of the opinion that casinos like superstitious gamblers more than smart gamblers.

In any event, choosing to play less than max coin isn't an option for me - know a little too much about the math, I guess - but don't see anything wrong with changing bets if the EV is the same. I think it pleases that gut instinct that doesn't really understand the nature of randomness, and also does a fine job of preserving bankroll.

Should I be wrong, and there is some way changing number of lines is actually detrimental, please speak up. there's every chance I don't know what I'm talking about, I certainly don't claim to be an expert. I'm only a chick that likes to play, and has had reasonably good luck getting casinos to cover my vacation expenses in exchange for some of my bankroll.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

Marc wrote:

>I totally agree with you that you can't predict anything on a VP machine.The RNG is going to do what it does regardless of what I do.Nobody knows if the next hand is going to be a win or a loss.But if you look at the results over a period of time,you'll see Hot streaks,cold streaks and choppy streaks all of different durations,all spit out by the RNG.Predicting a trend and JUMPING IN on a POSSIBLE trend are 2 different things.

But if the machine is unpredictable, a possible trend could come after
any pattern. A ten hand winning streak is as likely to occur after a
5 hand winning streak as it is after a series of ten hands in which
wins and losses have alternated in streaks of one each.

>Let me draw another analogy using the Stock market,regardless of whether it's predictable or not.Traders put indicators on the raw data to help them to decide whether to make a trade or not.One common indicator they use is an EMA(Exponential Moving Average).The EMA is a LAGGING indicator designed to help the Trader get in on a Trend.It doesn't predict anything.

It predicts that the trend will continue. If it's not predictable,
then any particular future trend is as likely after any past pattern.
The trend continuing is as likely as it is reversing.

>It's a trend following indicator.Is the stock going to continue to go up or go down? Nobody knows,but if the trend continues,the EMA will keep you in the trend as long as it continues.

If the trend isn't predictable, it can't do that without getting
lucky.

>Well,my "indicator" is waiting for 1 win to occur which means that it also is a lagging indicator.I'll always miss the first win because I have to wait for it to occur.But if the RNG "desides to deal me lets say 7 wins in a row,I'll be in on the last 6.Just like a trader has to wait for the EMA to cross above the data(which has already started the trend)before he can trade and therefore misses the beginning of the trend,but gets in on the
>remainder of the trend.The trader isn't trying to predict anything.

I don't understand how an unpredictable trend can be exploited. If
it's not predictable, how does anyone know it hasn't ended by the time
it has been recognized?

>In response to my post,Mickey mentioned doing the same thing on a Mult-Denom.machine.So instead of betting between 1 & 5 coins,you could switch between 25 cents and $2.00 and not sacrifice any EV.I like that idea better than my 1-5,But I don't know of any machines in AC with playable paytables that you could do that on.Maybe you or someone else does.

Unless he meant it as a form of "free" (in terms of expected value)
recreation, I don't know why Mickey recommended that. The only other
thing I can think of is to adjust the volume of one's play due to
updated bankroll considerations.

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#10

campus_chic13 wrote:

In any event, choosing to play less than max coin isn't an option
for me - know a little too much about the math, I guess - but don't
see anything wrong with changing bets if the EV is the same. I
think it pleases that gut instinct that doesn't really understand
the nature of randomness, and also does a fine job of preserving
bankroll.

Should I be wrong, and there is some way changing number of lines is actually detrimental, please speak up.

I wouldn't use the term "wrong", but I do think you're giving short shrift to the increased pain that could result from a "bad streak" as a consequence of shifting wagers.

Mind you, I'm sensitive on this number, having been a recent veteran of a 5-year losing streak that included, among other things, two 200K+ hand RF droughts.

Nonetheless, it goes as granted that bad streaks to happen. Oddly, experience of many bears out that what often compensates for them is a spate of good luck. What you lay yourself open to in "shifting bets", it the potential that the bad streak happens at higher wagers, but the offsetting good luck strikes largely at lower wagers.

There's no way of predicting what will happen (and the opposite might well come to pass). But bankroll preservation (the name to staying in the game) centers on minimizing unnecessary risk. I count bet shifting among the greater "risky behaviors" some players engage in.

The bottom line is that if you bankroll readily accommodates the long-term risk associated with the highest wager amount you tend to shift into, then there's little foul here ... you're simply moderating your overall risk to your comfort level. However, if the higher wagers overextend your bankroll, then it's not advisable.

For myself, I'm strictly a 5-coin wager player. For single line bets, 90% of my play is $1 play. I have the bankroll for $2 play, but am satisfied (because most of my sessions are easily accommodated with $1 play) to stick with $1 demon. (The key exception to this is when I have a very strong promotion at hand and find it beneficial to sharply boost session coin-in.)

there is also the benefit that I think it makes me look like I
believe in luck, and I'm of the opinion that casinos like
superstitious gamblers more than smart gamblers.

For multiline play, most reviewing the play will only note the average wager and not give further thought to it. Want to "look like <you> believe in luck"? Place a rabbit's foot on the corner of your machine.
     
- H.