vpFREE2 Forums

Aggressive Strategy

#1

In a message dated 8/29/2006 3:31:34 P.M. Central Daylight Time,
thomasrrobertson@earthlink.net writes:

Unless you have some unusual, short-term goal, I can't
imagine it being advisory to play a more volatile game which also has
less expected value. It may be boring, but I always assume that
fluctuation is a cost and seek to reduce it unless doing so reduces
expected value by too much.

Ok here is an unusual short term goal.
A progressive royal is at 6000 units. You can play 9/6 JB or 10/6 DDB for
this Jackpot.
Here you can get a better game EV wise but giving up the 10 for two pair
costs a lot.
Which game should you choose?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

Jaycee5351 wrote:

Ok here is an unusual short term goal.
A progressive royal is at 6000 units. You can play 9/6 JB or 10/6 DDB
for this Jackpot.
Here you can get a better game EV wise but giving up the 10 for two
pair costs a lot.
Which game should you choose?

The strongest answer will take into account how much money you're
willing to risk on this play and your play as a whole (the higher that
number the more things are skewed toward the higher ER 10/6 DDB option).

There are calculations that make an assessment, but they involve
rather somewhat more complex calculation than the basic ER/variance
ones that most are familiar with (still, without delving into details,
they aren't terribly complex).

However, I prefer experience over somewhat esoteric calculations. If
you're comfortable with the risk of DDB play at the denomination under
consideration, then clearly go for it. It's an indication that you
have a "sufficient" bankroll and, when that's the case, the higher ER
play is generally the more attractive.

However, if you don't have DDB play experience, or the game causes you
to uncomfortably "white knuckle" vs. Jacks, Jacks likely is the better
option.

By the way, I've suggested earlier this morning that comparing the
risk of two progressive plays might best done be done excluding the RF
win.

If you look at variance of these two games as a VERY ROUGH assessment
of downside risk, the DDB "x-RF" variance is about 7x greater than
Jacks. (If you consider the full paytable, including the RF, the DDB
play is greater only by a magnitude of about 1.4x.)

- Harry

#3

In a message dated 8/29/2006 3:31:34 P.M. Central Daylight Time,
thomasrrobertson@earthlink.net writes:

Unless you have some unusual, short-term goal, I can't
imagine it being advisory to play a more volatile game which also has
less expected value. It may be boring, but I always assume that
fluctuation is a cost and seek to reduce it unless doing so reduces
expected value by too much.

Ok here is an unusual short term goal.
A progressive royal is at 6000 units. You can play 9/6 JB or 10/6 DDB for
this Jackpot.
Here you can get a better game EV wise but giving up the 10 for two pair
costs a lot.
Which game should you choose?

Comparing 9/6 Double Double to 9/6 Jacks or Better would have fit my
description of "a more volatile game which also has less expected
value." I don't know where to draw the line, but, with a small enough
bankroll, 9/6 Jacks or Better should be preferred over 10/6 Double
Double. .5% is a lot to give up, so I'd have to feel awfully broke,
and the amount of the royal is relevant. This isn't much more than a
1% advantage for 10/6, so I assume that any bankroll that could afford
to play it would also be better off playing it than giving up .5% to
paly 9/6 Jacks or Better. But I might have misunderstood the amount
of the royal in your example. I was treating it as 6000 coins, with
the intent of drawing a distinction between that and a much higher
royal, which you probably meant, anyway. At a royal of 6000 units,
which is well into double figures in percent advantage, it takes a
much smaller bankroll to justify playing it, which might very well
prefer the 9/6 Jacks or Better, particularly if its royal cycle is
shorter and there is a lot of competition for the progressive. But
again, I don't know where to draw the line.

#4

This type of choice is pretty common for vp players. I run into it
frequently. A classic choice between higher ER and lower volatility. In
your example the choice is between a low volatility 100.5% game and a high
volatility 101% game. If I am sufficiently bankrolled I go with higher ER
and higher volatility. No question. It is when one is playing above their
bankroll (total BR or session stake or psychological BR) that the question
becomes interesting. I often find myself going for lower volatility when
experience tells me losses could be over my tolerance and terminate play
prematurely on the higher volatility/higher return choice. If I had that
particular choice frequently I would run ROR calcs for both options to
establish if the extra risk was worth the extra reward in my circumstances.
I would also have charts with relevant strategy changes. In short, I have
made the call both ways on this question and the answer is tailored to my
concerns as well as to the specifics of the play choice.

Chandler

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
Jaycee5351@aol.com
Sent: Saturday, September 09, 2006 7:56 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Aggressive Strategy

Ok here is an unusual short term goal.
A progressive royal is at 6000 units. You can play 9/6 JB or 10/6 DDB for
this Jackpot.
Here you can get a better game EV wise but giving up the 10 for two pair
costs a lot.
Which game should you choose?

#5

One way to rank games is with the Sharpe Ratio

http://www.google.com/search?q="Sharpe+Ratio"

Sharp Ratio = (ER + Cashback -1) / sqrt(Variance)

You could also rank them by risk of ruin using a risk of ruin calculator:

http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html

You could also rank them by risk of ruin before a royal or by the cost
of the min-cost-royal strategy.

Ok here is an unusual short term goal.
A progressive royal is at 6000 units. You can play 9/6 JB or 10/6

DDB for

this Jackpot.
Here you can get a better game EV wise but giving up the 10 for two

pair

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jaycee5351@... wrote:

costs a lot.
Which game should you choose?