While I haven't played the $5 pickem at Mohegan, my guess is that the one
coin payoff for the royal is 1000 vs. 6000 for 5 coin; 200 for the SF vs.
1199 for 5 coin and 100 for 4k vs. 600 for 5 coin. Thus the return for one
coin play on the $5 is 98.9% (I believe) vs. 99.54 on the full coin $1 9/6.
If correct, forget playing one coin pickem and stick with the $1 96 at
5-coins.
···
----- Original Message -----
From: Danton
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: 7/21/03 7:56:32 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] ADVICE PLEASE -- Full Coin JOB vs Short Coin Pick Em
The discussions about short coin play has me thinking about my
options at Moheghan Sun. They are $0.25 Pick Em with 0.625% comps,
$1 JOB with 1.25% comps, and $5 Pick Em with 1.25% comps.
It should be noted that there is NO cash back, so our goal is to
minimize loss while maximizing comps -- for dining, hotel stays,
shopping, etc.
I could only afford to play $5 Pick Em with one coin. Can anyone
tell me the expected return for playing just one coin? (My guess is
that it would still be better than JOB.) Also, what would be the
effect on the game's variance? (I suspect it would go down slightly.)
The potential benefit of changing from $1 JOB to one coin $5 Pick Em
is significant. At 750 hands per hour on full coin $0.25 Pick Em
with 0.625% comps, I would expect to earn hourly $5.86 in comps with
an expected loss of $0.47. At 500 hands per hour on full coin $1
JOB with 1.25% comps, I would expect to earn hourly $31.25 in comps
with an expected loss of $11.25. At 750 hands per hour on one coin
$5 Pick Em with 1.25% comps, I would expect to earn hourly $46.88
(!) in comps with an expected loss of ???.
Can anyone tell me if there would be major strategy shifts to
optimize the return on Pick Em given just one coin in?
Finally, can anyone tell me the required bankrolls for 4 hour
sessions of $1 JOB and $5 (1 coin) Pick Em with, say, a 25% risk of
ruin?
Thanks so much in advance for any information and advice that you VP
experts can offer!
Dan
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