ADVICE PLEASE -- Full Coin JOB vs Short Coin Pick Em

[Danton]

The discussions about short coin play has me thinking about my
options at Moheghan Sun. They are $0.25 Pick Em with 0.625% comps,
$1 JOB with 1.25% comps, and $5 Pick Em with 1.25% comps.

It should be noted that there is NO cash back, so our goal is to
minimize loss while maximizing comps -- for dining, hotel stays,
shopping, etc.

I could only afford to play $5 Pick Em with one coin. Can anyone
tell me the expected return for playing just one coin? (My guess is
that it would still be better than JOB.) Also, what would be the
effect on the game's variance? (I suspect it would go down slightly.)

The potential benefit of changing from $1 JOB to one coin $5 Pick Em
is significant. At 750 hands per hour on full coin $0.25 Pick Em
with 0.625% comps, I would expect to earn hourly $5.86 in comps with
an expected loss of $0.47. At 500 hands per hour on full coin $1
JOB with 1.25% comps, I would expect to earn hourly $31.25 in comps
with an expected loss of $11.25. At 750 hands per hour on one coin
$5 Pick Em with 1.25% comps, I would expect to earn hourly $46.88
(!) in comps with an expected loss of ???.

Can anyone tell me if there would be major strategy shifts to
optimize the return on Pick Em given just one coin in?

Finally, can anyone tell me the required bankrolls for 4 hour
sessions of $1 JOB and $5 (1 coin) Pick Em with, say, a 25% risk of
ruin?

Thanks so much in advance for any information and advice that you VP
experts can offer!

Dan

[katcag1]

I play in a casino in the south quite frequently. They have no decent VP below $1 games. They have some $! DD games. EV is 99.6% but the volatility is high. In another words I don't have the bankroll for that play, if I cannot get one of the few 9/6 JOB. Have found by occassionally playing sessions with only 2 coins at a time it works for me. Why 2 coins: on 4 ducks pay is not shorted as it would be on a royal. 2 coins pays 800 dollars for ducks. 3 coins pays 1200 dollars which means w2-g. Paying taxes can mean a difference in Ev in some cases. IT washes at year end when taxes are done, but in the meantime reduces bankroll. Playing 1 coin doesn't pay enough on ducks to be exciting. Thus 2 coins. END of gambling pyschology lesson. Royals to all KAt

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: Danton
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Monday, July 21, 2003 5:53 AM
  Subject: [vpFREE] ADVICE PLEASE -- Full Coin JOB vs Short Coin Pick Em

  The discussions about short coin play has me thinking about my
  options at Moheghan Sun. They are $0.25 Pick Em with 0.625% comps,
  $1 JOB with 1.25% comps, and $5 Pick Em with 1.25% comps.

  It should be noted that there is NO cash back, so our goal is to
  minimize loss while maximizing comps -- for dining, hotel stays,
  shopping, etc.

  I could only afford to play $5 Pick Em with one coin. Can anyone
  tell me the expected return for playing just one coin? (My guess is
  that it would still be better than JOB.) Also, what would be the
  effect on the game's variance? (I suspect it would go down slightly.)

  The potential benefit of changing from $1 JOB to one coin $5 Pick Em
  is significant. At 750 hands per hour on full coin $0.25 Pick Em
  with 0.625% comps, I would expect to earn hourly $5.86 in comps with
  an expected loss of $0.47. At 500 hands per hour on full coin $1
  JOB with 1.25% comps, I would expect to earn hourly $31.25 in comps
  with an expected loss of $11.25. At 750 hands per hour on one coin
  $5 Pick Em with 1.25% comps, I would expect to earn hourly $46.88
  (!) in comps with an expected loss of ???.

  Can anyone tell me if there would be major strategy shifts to
  optimize the return on Pick Em given just one coin in?

  Finally, can anyone tell me the required bankrolls for 4 hour
  sessions of $1 JOB and $5 (1 coin) Pick Em with, say, a 25% risk of
  ruin?

  Thanks so much in advance for any information and advice that you VP
  experts can offer!

  Dan

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