vpFREE2 Forums

Advice from the group

#1

I need your help/advice:
   
  I have played 114,632 hands of 25 cent FPDW on the WinPoker simulator with an accuracy rate of 99.86%. My net winnings are a whopping 345 credits, or $86.25. My average hands per hour is 600, for a total of approximately 191 hours of play.
   
  If this is the kind of results I can expect in a real casino in LV, then I guess I'm better off picking up pop cans and redeeming them. (Please tell me it's better in the "real world"!)
   
  Sorry to sound so frustrated, but based on these results I can't see how the professionals like Mr. Dancer and Ms.Scott et al can make a living doing this.
   
  Any comments or recommendations for getting me out of this vile mood will be greatly appreciated (other than obviously improving my error rate).
   
  Thanks for your input.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

The pros aren't playing .25 FPDW. At 800 hph, you will only be
clearing about $6 to $7/hr.

The pros are generally playing negative games, but with bonuses, point
multipliers, bb cash, they pull ahead that way, playing higher denoms.

I'm no pro, but I can tell you they're not bothering with FPDW at the
quarter level.

Your best bet I think is to move to Michigan. I think they offer
10cents per pop can redemption. As long as you can collect 80 cans
per hour, you're likely to come out ahead.

-Ryan

#3

Don't listen to Ryan! Michigan has NO jobs and you can't deduct gambling loses from taxes!

sjsharkey <ryasuda@yahoo.com> wrote: The pros aren't playing .25 FPDW. At 800 hph, you will only be
clearing about $6 to $7/hr.

The pros are generally playing negative games, but with bonuses, point
multipliers, bb cash, they pull ahead that way, playing higher denoms.

I'm no pro, but I can tell you they're not bothering with FPDW at the
quarter level.

Your best bet I think is to move to Michigan. I think they offer
10cents per pop can redemption. As long as you can collect 80 cans
per hour, you're likely to come out ahead.

-Ryan

···

---------------------------------
Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it now.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

you also left out your &quot;vote don&#39;t count&quot;

Money Works wrote:

···

            Don't listen to Ryan! Michigan has NO jobs and you can't deduct gambling loses from taxes!
sjsharkey < ryasuda@yahoo. com > wrote: The pros aren't playing .25 FPDW. At 800 hph, you will only be
clearing about $6 to $7/hr.
The pros are generally playing negative games, but with bonuses, point
multipliers, bb cash, they pull ahead that way, playing higher denoms.
I'm no pro, but I can tell you they're not bothering with FPDW at the
quarter level.
Your best bet I think is to move to Michigan. I think they offer
10cents per pop can redemption. As long as you can collect 80 cans
per hour, you're likely to come out ahead.
-Ryan
------------ --------- --------- ---
Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it now.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

you also left out your &quot;vote don&#39;t count&quot;

Well, since I don't see either letter Vanna, I'd like to buy an A and an I
and try to solve the puzzle.
          Nudge

···

From: "TODD FICHTER" Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Advice from the group

#6

The pros aren't playing .25 FPDW. At 800 hph, you will only be
clearing about $6 to $7/hr.

The pros are generally playing negative games, but with bonuses,

point

multipliers, bb cash, they pull ahead that way, playing higher denoms.

I'm no pro, but I can tell you they're not bothering with FPDW at the
quarter level.

Your best bet I think is to move to Michigan. I think they offer
10cents per pop can redemption. As long as you can collect 80 cans
per hour, you're likely to come out ahead.

-Ryan

This goes back to the early nineties. Michigan had one of the best
football teams in the land. Colorado had a pretty good football team
too. I was sitting in a bar in Mount Pleasant, Michigan watching
Michigan play Colorado. It was late in the season and Michigan was
undefeated. The Michigan fans were rabid. Absolutely rabid. The game
was pretty close but Michigan had Colorado nutted. But the Colorado
boys threw up a hail mary pass on the last play and won the game. Of
course, it threw a whole damper on the bar I was sitting in. They all
cleared out and I had to sit there and continue my drunk by myself.
What was funny about the whole thing was I was carrying Colorado I.D.
at the time. Of course, I didn't show it to any of them. I
personally felt like if I showed it to them I would get killed.

I think I was right about you Michiganers. My assessment of you was
correct. You boys are some pretty sore losers.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "sjsharkey" <ryasuda@...> wrote:

#7

Uhhh, if you read my post correctly, you'd noticed I said he should
move to Michigan for the pop can redemption rate. The OP said that
he was thinking of picking up cans instead of VP.

-ry

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Money Works <worksforthemoney@...>
wrote:

Don't listen to Ryan! Michigan has NO jobs and you can't deduct

gambling loses from taxes!

sjsharkey <ryasuda@...> wrote: The

pros aren't playing .25 FPDW. At 800 hph, you will only be

clearing about $6 to $7/hr.

The pros are generally playing negative games, but with bonuses,

point

multipliers, bb cash, they pull ahead that way, playing higher

denoms.

I'm no pro, but I can tell you they're not bothering with FPDW at

the

quarter level.

Your best bet I think is to move to Michigan. I think they offer
10cents per pop can redemption. As long as you can collect 80

cans

per hour, you're likely to come out ahead.

-Ryan

---------------------------------
Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo!

Mobile. Try it now.

···

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

I need your help/advice:
   
  I have played 114,632 hands of 25 cent FPDW on the WinPoker

simulator with an accuracy rate of 99.86%. My net winnings are a
whopping 345 credits, or $86.25. My average hands per hour is 600,
for a total of approximately 191 hours of play.

   
  If this is the kind of results I can expect in a real casino in

LV, then I guess I'm better off picking up pop cans and redeeming
them. (Please tell me it's better in the "real world"!)

   
  Sorry to sound so frustrated, but based on these results I can't

see how the professionals like Mr. Dancer and Ms.Scott et al can
make a living doing this.

   
  Any comments or recommendations for getting me out of this vile

mood will be greatly appreciated (other than obviously improving my
error rate).

   
  Thanks for your input.

You're probably not going to like this but
you would come out ahead collecting cans and
redeeming them. If you factor in travel expenses
and the losing trips (oh yes there will be
losing trips Virginia) this profitable hobby
can be quite expensive. For quarter players
who are Vegas locals, you can minimize the cost
as you have no travel costs. For we poor souls
who live somewhere else, it's not as easy.

Net; do you enjoy playing? Are you willing
to pay to play?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Massy Cimini <icscaptain@...> wrote:

#9

expectation for this number of hands would be 2.5 royals, 23 deuces,
and $890 profit. so if you hit 2 royals and 22 deuces instead, you'd
expect to be up $890 - 0.5*$1000 - $250 = $140. if you hit 2 royals
and 21 deuces, you'd be down $110 on average.

does hitting 2 royals in 2.5 royal cycles sound unusual to you? does
hitting 21 or 22 deuces in 23 deuce cycles sound unusual? it
shouldn't.

i don't mean to sound harsh, but what you're experiencing hardly even
qualifies as "running bad". if you'd played a million hands and come
out negative, that would be running sorta bad, but it's still probably
about 10% likely, not a thousand-to-one freakish occurrence.

dunbar's table at http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Bank_NO1.htm may be instructive.

cheers,

five

···

On Mon, Apr 21, 2008 at 10:30 AM, Massy Cimini <icscaptain@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

  I have played 114,632 hands of 25 cent FPDW on the WinPoker simulator with an accuracy rate of 99.86%. My net winnings are a whopping 345 credits, or $86.25. My average hands per hour is 600, for a total of approximately 191 hours of play.

#10

I need your help/advice:
   
  I have played 114,632 hands of 25 cent FPDW on the WinPoker

simulator with an accuracy rate of 99.86%. My net winnings are a
whopping 345 credits, or $86.25. My average hands per hour is 600,
for a total of approximately 191 hours of play.

   

Massy,

You ask a valid question. Sorry no pro have answered your post. Back
in the early 90's with low cost meal and high rewards programs and
more high paying machines it was easier to make money at VP. With the
ease in the tax implications for corporations dividend payments to
the share holders in the mid 90's more and more corporations have
squeeze every ounce of profit out of there companies. The
corporations that own casinos started targeting positive play games
and rewards programs as one of the areas to increase their profits.
This is one of the reasons for some of the changes you have seen from
the 90's to today.

VP can still be profitable but it is work. You have to spend hours
playing for your pay check. Some days you make money some days you
don't. You have to keep on top of who is giving the best rewards for
your play and who has the best paying games. When I travel to a
casino I look for the latest report updates on machine payouts and
locations. You have to be careful because some of the reports are
wrong or out of date. I always carry a printout of the list and have
at times spent day trying to find the machines. When you find one you
will find in most cases the local players camped out at the machines.
So you play something else while waiting your turn. Camped out is the
wrong term because they are there grinding out there living. I have
found spots in Reno were some of the locals will bug you until you
get off there machine. If you are playing their machine you are
cutting into their income. It would be like a tourist coming to your
job and messing with your tools keeping you from getting your work
done and in turn effecting your take home check or you tell a friend
about your favorite fishing hole and then the whole town is now there
fishing it dry. (This I think maybe the underlining reason some
reports are wrong.)

Here is a little comp math for you.
If you play at Binion's
114,632 @ $.25 hands at max bet $1.25 = $143,290 in action.
At Binnion's $3 to 1 comp point rate = 47,763.33 comp points.
100 points = $1
47,763.33 comp points = $477.63 in comps
If you play $1 max bet $573,175.00 in action = $1910.58 in comps

Harrah's
114,632 @ $.25 hands at max bet $1.25 = $143,290 in action.
At Harrah's $10 to 1 comp point rate = 11,463.20
100 points = $1
11,463.20 comp points = $114.63 in comps
If you play $1 max bet $573,175.00 in action = $573.18 in comps

Between what I have learned from Mrs. Scott and Mr Dancer and the 3
hours a day I spend practicing. When I go on a trip I play high limit
4 hours a day. 80% of my trips come out free (hotel, meals, and gas
cost covered out of comps and winnings).

Chris
Idaho

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Massy Cimini <icscaptain@...> wrote:

#11

I need your help/advice:
   
  I have played 114,632 hands of 25 cent FPDW on the WinPoker

simulator with an accuracy rate of 99.86%. My net winnings are a
whopping 345 credits, or $86.25. My average hands per hour is 600,
for a total of approximately 191 hours of play.

   
  If this is the kind of results I can expect in a real casino in

LV, then I guess I'm better off picking up pop cans and redeeming
them. (Please tell me it's better in the "real world"!)

   
  Sorry to sound so frustrated, but based on these results I can't

see how the professionals like Mr. Dancer and Ms.Scott et al can make
a living doing this.

   
  Any comments or recommendations for getting me out of this vile

mood will be greatly appreciated (other than obviously improving my
error rate).

   
  Thanks for your input.

There is some guesswork here as I don't have stats for every video
poker hand I have ever played. I'm notorious for throwing out old
stats. I hate clutter and I've been through the ups and downs of the
game so much that I know I always come out on the end.

My guess as to how many hands I have played since 1996 is somewhere
between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000. It would be interesting, if I had
the stats, to break it down into 100,000 hand blocks for analysis.

I know I have had many flattened out runs like you experienced.
I know I have had many 100,000 hand runs where I was in the red.
I know I have had many 100,000 hand runs where I was way in the black.

And I know the extremes I've experienced. I once went about 250,000
hands between royals. The opposite extreme is I once hit 3 royals in
less than 3000 hands on a game where the royal odds were 45,000. The
rest of the ups and downs I've experienced lay somewhere between
these two extremes.

When I played quarter FPDW I always looked for extras. This goes
back to the late nineties but in Laughlin Gold River/River Palms
had .33% CB, 33% comp. Thursdays were 3X CB, Fridays 2X CB. I got 4
two-day hotel packages a month for my play. I used the comp for
meals, and sometimes for extra hotel days.

It's the total package I always look for, not just the game itself.
Good luck.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Massy Cimini <icscaptain@...> wrote:

#12

From: "TODD FICHTER" Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Advice from the group

> you also left out your &quot;vote don&#39;t count&quot;

Well, since I don't see either letter Vanna, I'd like to buy an A and

an I

and try to solve the puzzle.
          Nudge

LOL, good one!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nudge51" <nudge51@...> wrote:

#13

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "worldbefree22001" <krajewski.sa@...>
wrote:

>
> I need your help/advice:
>
> I have played 114,632 hands of 25 cent FPDW on the WinPoker
simulator with an accuracy rate of 99.86%. My net winnings are a
whopping 345 credits, or $86.25. My average hands per hour is 600,
for a total of approximately 191 hours of play.
>
> If this is the kind of results I can expect in a real casino in
LV, then I guess I'm better off picking up pop cans and redeeming
them. (Please tell me it's better in the "real world"!)
>
> Sorry to sound so frustrated, but based on these results I

can't

see how the professionals like Mr. Dancer and Ms.Scott et al can
make a living doing this.
>
> Any comments or recommendations for getting me out of this vile
mood will be greatly appreciated (other than obviously improving my
error rate).
>
> Thanks for your input.
>

You're probably not going to like this but
you would come out ahead collecting cans and
redeeming them. If you factor in travel expenses
and the losing trips (oh yes there will be
losing trips Virginia) this profitable hobby
can be quite expensive. For quarter players
who are Vegas locals, you can minimize the cost
as you have no travel costs. For we poor souls
who live somewhere else, it's not as easy.

Net; do you enjoy playing? Are you willing
to pay to play?

Very well put. I have been told and have read advice on here to
others to the effect of save your money and take a trip to Vegas.
Well, just read the posts going on right now about the cost of a
single air fare (There are two of us). If we drove it would be
probably just as bad, what with gas costs and motel and food bills
getting to and fro. Some how that cost should be put into the EV
formula.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Massy Cimini <icscaptain@> wrote:

#14

You're expected profit is about $5 per hour so you need comps and
progressives to make it more worthwhile.

···

> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Massy Cimini <icscaptain@> wrote:
> >
> > I need your help/advice:
> >
> > I have played 114,632 hands of 25 cent FPDW on the WinPoker
> simulator with an accuracy rate of 99.86%. My net winnings are a
> whopping 345 credits, or $86.25. My average hands per hour is 600,
> for a total of approximately 191 hours of play.
> >
> > If this is the kind of results I can expect in a real casino in
> LV, then I guess I'm better off picking up pop cans and redeeming
> them. (Please tell me it's better in the "real world"!)

#15

<<Sorry to sound so frustrated, but based on these results I can't
see how the professionals like Mr. Dancer and Ms.Scott et al can
make a living doing this.>>

We never have "made a living" playing VP. We have an adequate pension and investment income. However we have made a lot of money playing VP, even back when we were playing mostly FPDW. We chased promotions tirelessly and did a lot of couponing to add to the EV of the game.

We now play at much higher levels - the profit potential is greater but it is also a wild ride and takes nerves of steel!!!!!

···

________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
"Tax Help for Gamblers" now
in e-book form for $9.98.
Download immediately at
http://www.shoplva.com/welcomeEbooks.cfm

#16

see how the professionals like Mr. Dancer and Ms.Scott et al can make
a living doing this.

Bob tells you how he did it in his book "Million Dollar Video Poker".
Then again, maybe he made most of it up, like any good Texas yarn. But
it does have a lot of "truthiness" to it.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Massy Cimini <icscaptain@...> wrote:

  Sorry to sound so frustrated, but based on these results I can't

#17

Bob wouldn't do that. Then he'd have to apologize to Oprah.

···

On Thu, Apr 24, 2008 at 5:36 PM, nightoftheiguana2000 < nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com> wrote:

  Bob tells you how he did it in his book "Million Dollar Video Poker".
Then again, maybe he made most of it up, like any good Texas yarn.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#18

We never have "made a living" playing VP. We have an adequate

pension and

investment income. However we have made a lot of money playing VP,

even

back when we were playing mostly FPDW. We chased promotions

tirelessly and

did a lot of couponing to add to the EV of the game.

We now play at much higher levels - the profit potential is greater

but it

is also a wild ride and takes nerves of steel!!!!!

I find this interesting and it makes me ask again. How many people
solely make their living from Video Poker (Meaning no job, no
retirement, no books, so on and so on.)?
I know people who have made and do make a living solely playing poker.
Now the old vpfree poll did not have Video Poker as an option it was
Professional Gambler that include all games.
The skills I have learned from Bob Dancer has made me a better
player. The skills I have learned from Jean Scott has allowed me to
get the most from the comp system and I thank them both for that.
I have spent the last few weeks looking over my logs. I have made
more money play poker against drunks at the casinos than playing
video poker.

#19

Cb wrote:

JS: We chased promotions tirelessly and did a lot of couponing to add to the EV of the game.

I find this interesting and it makes me ask again. How many people solely make their living from Video Poker (Meaning no job, no retirement, no books, so on and so on.)?
I know people who have made and do make a living solely playing poker.
Now the old vpfree poll did not have Video Poker as an option it was Professional Gambler that include all games.

The skills you learn as a good VP player (analyzing pay schedules, computing EV, and factoring in comps, cash back, and promotions) can also be applied to other casino banked games.

Every time you get a fun book, make sure to play every one of those "7 for 5" coupons on a roulette even money bet, the "bonus ace" and free play coupons on blackjack, as well as the Four of a Kind bonus VP coupons, and every other positve expectation promotion you encounter. Eventually, they all add up big. Double royals promos can be great when you can find them, and they play just like a progressive. Promotions like 10x points, bonus cash, even drawings, can make even relatively poor games into positive plays.

You might not want to get thirteen bottles of comped water, but the general idea is valid: comps can also be very valuable when you are trying to come out ahead, and some casino restaurants and hotel rooms are wonderful. Some free stuff isn't worth the time, especially if you have to spend an hour in line at the player's club (hello T*rr*bl*s) to collect it.

-dd

#20

> We never have "made a living" playing VP. We have an adequate
pension and
> investment income. However we have made a lot of money playing

VP,

even
> back when we were playing mostly FPDW. We chased promotions
tirelessly and
> did a lot of couponing to add to the EV of the game.
>
> We now play at much higher levels - the profit potential is

greater

but it
> is also a wild ride and takes nerves of steel!!!!!

I find this interesting and it makes me ask again. How many people
solely make their living from Video Poker (Meaning no job, no
retirement, no books, so on and so on.)?
I know people who have made and do make a living solely playing

poker.

Now the old vpfree poll did not have Video Poker as an option it

was

Professional Gambler that include all games.
The skills I have learned from Bob Dancer has made me a better
player. The skills I have learned from Jean Scott has allowed me to
get the most from the comp system and I thank them both for that.
I have spent the last few weeks looking over my logs. I have made
more money play poker against drunks at the casinos than playing
video poker.

The truth is no one really knows. A vpFREE poll won't answer the
question either. Most members are lurkers. And not all pros even
belong to vpFREE.

Some vp pros are playing poker these days. When I'm in Las Vegas I
have to ask myself the question "should I be playing poker or video
poker?" The small blind no limit games there are a pretty good
source of income these days--with much less variance than video
poker.

There are many pros who could make a living just playing vp but don't
want too. If one is good enough to consistently beat gambling it
just stands to reason that they could probably make much more money
in the business world.

In eleven years of banging away on vp, I've had to live in Laughlin,
Las Vegas, Reno, Tahoe, Minden, Elko, Wendover, Ely, and now Montana
(And it won't be long I'll be moving on from here). I just take up
residence wherever the strong play is. Not a whole lot of people
want to live my vagabond lifestyle just to call themselves a vp
pro.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cb" <cb_ray@...> wrote: