vpFREE2 Forums

ADVANTAGE SLOTS

#21

Quick Strike is a Konami machine rather than IGT vision series.
Just wondering if the "LCBS" is generic or only IGT?
I find the most interesting aspect on this series is you did this
from afar using the power of internet.

I have seen these machines with devotees banging away for hours and taking the machine out of service for 2 hours/time x 4 times/day. Attracted my attention. Went down at 5:00 a.m. to check it out.

At 7:00, his S.O. came down and two of the three machines in the bank were taken by my wife and myself. She called him and says his machine is occupied; there's one left open and she sat there for a half hour until he came down. Shortly after we left having hit the mini-jackpot at >$47.33 and went back to work on the FPVP :-).

Powerful information and fun youtube links.
Dave in Boston
"Knowledge is Power"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientia_potentia_est

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

...I automatically recognized the game as a variant of Lucky Coin Bonus System that debuted at the Mandalay Bay opening. LCBS has come in many forms over the years...

#22

That's some funny stuff, Bob. I've seen similar stuff like one day I walk into the Red Lion in Elko to sweep out the unlinked flush attacks. Of the eight machines, seven were being played....and none of them were in flush attack mode. The one vacant machine in the middle of the bank had the flush attack light blaring across the top of the screen. I sat down and snapped the bonus flush off. God bless their little clueless ploppy souls.

With the feedback I got from you and pyiddy about meter speed, then I have to say that my playable numbers are only valid for a 1% meter. However, anyone can use my nine-step formula to come up with their own playable numbers per the meter speeds in their area.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bartop" <bobbartop@...> wrote:

Another two memorable plays were almost exactly the same situation, but at two different casinos. I walked up to the bank in each case, and the mini at an open seat was barely under $48 on a 25-50 game. Surprisingly, on both sides of this open seat was a player, banging away for a $25 or $26 mini. I almost felt guilty, sat down at the open seat between the other two players, and snapped off $48 almost immediately. Incredible. God bless their little clueless ploppy souls.

#23

I played one this morning, Mickey, where the mini moved $4 for every $3 coin-in.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

With the feedback I got from you and pyiddy about meter speed, then I have to say that my playable numbers are only valid for a 1% meter. However, anyone can use my nine-step formula to come up with their own playable numbers per the meter speeds in their area.

#24

The most common meters I've seen in California are $4 major / $1.33 minor. I have seen some $0.85 minors.

Two things to watch for:

1) Meters on the same type of machine may vary within the same casino.
  Most of the $100-200/$10-20 QuickStrikes have $4 major / $2 minor, but one bank of 4 was $10 major / $5 minor (2.5X worse).
  I saw some in Vegas that were at least $11+ minor. Watched over $10 of play without $0.01 move on the minor.

2) Occasionally amazing meters might exist by accident.
  For many months, one bank of $100-200/$10-20 QuickStrikes had $0.50 major / $2 minor.
  The major moved so fast that $150s were playable (Starts at $100, must hit by $200).

Mitchell

···

On Sep 1, 2012, at 3:31 PM, Bob Bartop wrote:

I played one this morning, Mickey, where the mini moved $4 for every $3 coin-in.

#25

Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules screen to get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in Australia get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a starting number.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME

1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error of plus 4% or minus 3%).

2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2. Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.

3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.

4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.

5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.

Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds of it is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't say you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out when you hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter. I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.

6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.

7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49. It's a 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.

8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.

9. Add 49% to 87%.

A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%

Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays. Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have many losing plays.

Next post....

#26

Quick q, what are "rescue spins"?

···

On Fri, Feb 22, 2013 at 3:40 PM, Mickey <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com> wrote:

**

Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules screen to
get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in Australia
get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
starting number.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
>
> QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
>
> 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error of
plus 4% or minus 3%).
>
> 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the lower
parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2. Average
mini jackpot value is $37.50.
>
> 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to $37.50.
It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
>
> 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
>
> 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
>
> Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds of it
is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't say
you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out when you
hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
>
> 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
>
> 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49. It's a 1%
meter so $100 in action does the trick.
>
> 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
>
> 9. Add 49% to 87%.
>
> A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
>
> Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays. Playing
at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have many losing
plays.
>
> Next post....
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#27

There is a bonus in a game triggered by some combination of symbols. If you go a certain amount of spins without triggering the bonus the natural way, then the rescue spin is triggered and you get the bonus anyway.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." <broncosaurus@...> wrote:

Quick q, what are "rescue spins"?

On Fri, Feb 22, 2013 at 3:40 PM, Mickey <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

> **
>
>
> Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
> progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules screen to
> get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in Australia
> get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
> starting number.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> >
> > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> >
> > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error of
> plus 4% or minus 3%).
> >
> > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the lower
> parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2. Average
> mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> >
> > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to $37.50.
> It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> >
> > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> >
> > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> >
> > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds of it
> is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't say
> you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out when you
> hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
> I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> >
> > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
> betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
> parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> >
> > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49. It's a 1%
> meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> >
> > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> >
> > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> >
> > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> >
> > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays. Playing
> at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have many losing
> plays.
> >
> > Next post....
> >
>
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#28

The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds in your head.

The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing the machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.

How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving the meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.

Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the number of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then it's 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more difficult to do on the spot.

Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's mid point.

This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how changes in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules screen to get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in Australia get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a starting number.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@> wrote:
>
> QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
>
> 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error of plus 4% or minus 3%).
>
> 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2. Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
>
> 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
>
> 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
>
> 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
>
> Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds of it is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't say you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out when you hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter. I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
>
> 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
>
> 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49. It's a 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
>
> 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
>
> 9. Add 49% to 87%.
>
> A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
>
> Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays. Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have many losing plays.
>
> Next post....
>

#29

I'm looking for a website to find the location of certain games within certain casinos. Where is this information available?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:

There is a bonus in a game triggered by some combination of symbols. If you go a certain amount of spins without triggering the bonus the natural way, then the rescue spin is triggered and you get the bonus anyway.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." <broncosaurus@> wrote:
>
> Quick q, what are "rescue spins"?
>
> On Fri, Feb 22, 2013 at 3:40 PM, Mickey <mickeycrimm@> wrote:
>
> > **
> >
> >
> > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
> > progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules screen to
> > get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in Australia
> > get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
> > starting number.
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > >
> > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > >
> > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error of
> > plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > >
> > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the lower
> > parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2. Average
> > mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > >
> > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to $37.50.
> > It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > >
> > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> > >
> > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > >
> > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds of it
> > is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't say
> > you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out when you
> > hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
> > I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > >
> > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
> > betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
> > parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > >
> > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49. It's a 1%
> > meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > >
> > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > >
> > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > >
> > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > >
> > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays. Playing
> > at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have many losing
> > plays.
> > >
> > > Next post....
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

#30

<<I'm looking for a website to find the location of certain games within
certain casinos. Where is this information available?>>

In certain places.

Cogno

#31

what games are you looking for? If you mean Cherry Pies, DD Mines,
Kool Kat etc, you are about 10 years late to the party for finding them in casinos. About 5 years late finding them on cruise ships.

You can find one cent rescue spins, rock around the clock, alice in wonderlands almost everywhere, But you won't find many left in a playable state and you will find lots of "locals" competing with you for the bounty. Not a bad thing to check them if you are going by though, I caught a maxi on RATC for $1200 last year. In other words don't quit your day job.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cogno Scienti <cognoscienti@...> wrote:

<<I'm looking for a website to find the location of certain games within
certain casinos. Where is this information available?>>

In certain places.

Cogno

#32

**

The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these
calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds in
your head.

The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing the
machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If
expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.

How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving the
meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex
jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a
penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.

Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the number
of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then it's
30*15=450 expected cost. It's a

Could you elaborate a little more on this:

  play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots
take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more difficult
to do on the spot.

  Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's
mid point.

This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how changes
in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.

>
> Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules screen to
get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in Australia
get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
starting number.
>
> >
> > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> >
> > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error of
plus 4% or minus 3%).
> >
> > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the
lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2.
Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> >
> > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
$37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> >
> > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> >
> > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> >
> > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds of it
is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't say
you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out when you
hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> >
> > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> >
> > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49. It's a
1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> >
> > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> >
> > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> >
> > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> >
> > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have many
losing plays.
> >
> > Next post....
> >
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

···

On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 <vpplayer88@yahoo.com> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:

#33

The formatting of your question didn't work to well on my browser so I'm not sure what you are asking about. Can you clarify?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." <broncosaurus@...> wrote:

On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 <vpplayer88@...> wrote:

> **
>
>
>
>
> The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these
> calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds in
> your head.
>
> The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing the
> machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
> estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If
> expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
>
> How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving the
> meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex
> jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a
> penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
>
> Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the number
> of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then it's
> 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a
>

Could you elaborate a little more on this:

> play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots
> take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more difficult
> to do on the spot.
>
>

> Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's
> mid point.
>
> This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how changes
> in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> >
> > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
> progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules screen to
> get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in Australia
> get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
> starting number.
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > >
> > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > >
> > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error of
> plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > >
> > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the
> lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2.
> Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > >
> > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
> $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > >
> > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> > >
> > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > >
> > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds of it
> is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't say
> you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out when you
> hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
> I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > >
> > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
> betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
> parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > >
> > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49. It's a
> 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > >
> > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > >
> > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > >
> > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > >
> > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
> Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have many
> losing plays.
> > >
> > > Next post....
> > >
> >
>
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#34

The comment about adjusting for the jackpot's part of the total return.
Thanks.

···

On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 3:38 PM, vpplayer88 <vpplayer88@yahoo.com> wrote:

**

The formatting of your question didn't work to well on my browser so I'm
not sure what you are asking about. Can you clarify?

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
>
> On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
>
> > **

> >
> >
> >
> >
> > The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these
> > calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds
in
> > your head.
> >
> > The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing
the
> > machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
> > estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If
> > expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
> >
> > How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving
the
> > meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex
> > jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a
> > penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
> >
> > Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the
number
> > of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then
it's
> > 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a
> >
>
> Could you elaborate a little more on this:
>
> > play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots
> > take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more
difficult
> > to do on the spot.
> >
> >
>
>
> > Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's
> > mid point.
> >
> > This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how
changes
> > in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > >
> > > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
> > progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules
screen to
> > get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in
Australia
> > get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
> > starting number.
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > >
> > > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > > >
> > > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error
of
> > plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > > >
> > > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the
> > lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2.
> > Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > > >
> > > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
> > $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > > >
> > > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> > > >
> > > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > > >
> > > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds
of it
> > is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't
say
> > you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out
when you
> > hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
> > I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > > >
> > > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
> > betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
> > parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > > >
> > > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49.
It's a
> > 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > > >
> > > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > > >
> > > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > > >
> > > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > > >
> > > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
> > Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have
many
> > losing plays.
> > > >
> > > > Next post....
> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#35

One of the key unknowns in doing the math for these machines is what the house edge is. We have data on the overall house edge on all penny machines for many casinos. It's usually 10 or 11 percent or something in that range. But that's not the relevant variable for doing math on the machine. That is the total return for machines which includes the return that comes from players winning jackpots. You have to adjust the house edge upward when doing the math for hit points on jackpots because you are interested in the return of the base game, if the same line pays were awarded but there was no jackpot. For a major with a 2% meter rise resets at 250 must hit by 500, the adjustment is about 1%.

I also believe the returns on the machines are probably a bit lower than penny slots as a whole because there are some penny slots where you have to play max to earn a higher return, and that should skew the results for machines where playing max doesn't yield a higher return.

My estimate for a major minor 25-50 and 250-500 at my local casino with 2% meters on each is about 15% house edge ex jackpot.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." <broncosaurus@...> wrote:

The comment about adjusting for the jackpot's part of the total return.
Thanks.

On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 3:38 PM, vpplayer88 <vpplayer88@...> wrote:

> **
>
>
> The formatting of your question didn't work to well on my browser so I'm
> not sure what you are asking about. Can you clarify?
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
> >
> > On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
> >
> > > **
>
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these
> > > calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds
> in
> > > your head.
> > >
> > > The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing
> the
> > > machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
> > > estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If
> > > expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
> > >
> > > How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving
> the
> > > meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex
> > > jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a
> > > penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
> > >
> > > Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the
> number
> > > of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then
> it's
> > > 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a
> > >
> >
> > Could you elaborate a little more on this:
> >
> > > play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots
> > > take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more
> difficult
> > > to do on the spot.
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > > Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's
> > > mid point.
> > >
> > > This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how
> changes
> > > in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
> > > progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules
> screen to
> > > get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in
> Australia
> > > get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
> > > starting number.
> > > >
> > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > > > >
> > > > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error
> of
> > > plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > > > >
> > > > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the
> > > lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2.
> > > Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > > > >
> > > > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
> > > $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > > > >
> > > > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> > > > >
> > > > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > > > >
> > > > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds
> of it
> > > is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't
> say
> > > you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out
> when you
> > > hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
> > > I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > > > >
> > > > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
> > > betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
> > > parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > > > >
> > > > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49.
> It's a
> > > 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > > > >
> > > > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > > > >
> > > > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > > > >
> > > > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > > > >
> > > > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
> > > Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have
> many
> > > losing plays.
> > > > >
> > > > > Next post....
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#36

I'm still looking for the magic # definitive amount where one should jump on... 46? Are we sure the jackpot amount is predetermined once the previous jackpot is won? Like it would hit on 43.23 whether I bet 20 cents or max to get there? I notice that max bet players have more frequent smaller bonus hits around 30 dollars than those playing smaller bets..

No one has said for sure on that

···

Sent from my iPade

On Mar 3, 2013, at 2:23 PM, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@yahoo.com> wrote:

One of the key unknowns in doing the math for these machines is what the house edge is. We have data on the overall house edge on all penny machines for many casinos. It's usually 10 or 11 percent or something in that range. But that's not the relevant variable for doing math on the machine. That is the total return for machines which includes the return that comes from players winning jackpots. You have to adjust the house edge upward when doing the math for hit points on jackpots because you are interested in the return of the base game, if the same line pays were awarded but there was no jackpot. For a major with a 2% meter rise resets at 250 must hit by 500, the adjustment is about 1%.

I also believe the returns on the machines are probably a bit lower than penny slots as a whole because there are some penny slots where you have to play max to earn a higher return, and that should skew the results for machines where playing max doesn't yield a higher return.

My estimate for a major minor 25-50 and 250-500 at my local casino with 2% meters on each is about 15% house edge ex jackpot.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
>
> The comment about adjusting for the jackpot's part of the total return.
> Thanks.
>
> On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 3:38 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
>
> > **
> >
> >
> > The formatting of your question didn't work to well on my browser so I'm
> > not sure what you are asking about. Can you clarify?
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
> > >
> > > On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
> > >
> > > > **
> >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these
> > > > calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds
> > in
> > > > your head.
> > > >
> > > > The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing
> > the
> > > > machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
> > > > estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If
> > > > expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
> > > >
> > > > How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving
> > the
> > > > meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex
> > > > jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a
> > > > penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
> > > >
> > > > Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the
> > number
> > > > of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then
> > it's
> > > > 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a
> > > >
> > >
> > > Could you elaborate a little more on this:
> > >
> > > > play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots
> > > > take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more
> > difficult
> > > > to do on the spot.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's
> > > > mid point.
> > > >
> > > > This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how
> > changes
> > > > in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
> > > >
> > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
> > > > progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules
> > screen to
> > > > get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in
> > Australia
> > > > get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
> > > > starting number.
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error
> > of
> > > > plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the
> > > > lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2.
> > > > Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
> > > > $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds
> > of it
> > > > is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't
> > say
> > > > you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out
> > when you
> > > > hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
> > > > I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
> > > > betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
> > > > parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49.
> > It's a
> > > > 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > > > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > > > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > > > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > > > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
> > > > Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have
> > many
> > > > losing plays.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Next post....
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#37

The thing that I would emphasize most is that there is no single number. Learn the basic math and do an ev calculation for these machines in less than a minute. One of the biggest mistakes I see is people treating all of these machines. The bad hustlers grind must hit by majors at 475 if the meter rise is 4 dollars a penny and keep losing most of the time. They attribute it to getting unlucky when it's a negative ev play.

Another consideration is what you are maximizing. If you want some slot play to disguise vp your number will be lower than a hustler without a players card that is just maximizing ev. Taking a break even machine has what I call a negative ev opportunity cost. If you wait and check back later after giving it up you may eventually get it at a positive ev point.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Paul Coleman <pdcolemanjr@...> wrote:

I'm still looking for the magic # definitive amount where one should jump on... 46? Are we sure the jackpot amount is predetermined once the previous jackpot is won? Like it would hit on 43.23 whether I bet 20 cents or max to get there? I notice that max bet players have more frequent smaller bonus hits around 30 dollars than those playing smaller bets..

No one has said for sure on that

Sent from my iPade

On Mar 3, 2013, at 2:23 PM, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:

>
>
> One of the key unknowns in doing the math for these machines is what the house edge is. We have data on the overall house edge on all penny machines for many casinos. It's usually 10 or 11 percent or something in that range. But that's not the relevant variable for doing math on the machine. That is the total return for machines which includes the return that comes from players winning jackpots. You have to adjust the house edge upward when doing the math for hit points on jackpots because you are interested in the return of the base game, if the same line pays were awarded but there was no jackpot. For a major with a 2% meter rise resets at 250 must hit by 500, the adjustment is about 1%.
>
> I also believe the returns on the machines are probably a bit lower than penny slots as a whole because there are some penny slots where you have to play max to earn a higher return, and that should skew the results for machines where playing max doesn't yield a higher return.
>
> My estimate for a major minor 25-50 and 250-500 at my local casino with 2% meters on each is about 15% house edge ex jackpot.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
> >
> > The comment about adjusting for the jackpot's part of the total return.
> > Thanks.
> >
> > On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 3:38 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
> >
> > > **
> > >
> > >
> > > The formatting of your question didn't work to well on my browser so I'm
> > > not sure what you are asking about. Can you clarify?
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
> > > >
> > > > On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
> > > >
> > > > > **
> > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these
> > > > > calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds
> > > in
> > > > > your head.
> > > > >
> > > > > The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing
> > > the
> > > > > machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
> > > > > estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If
> > > > > expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
> > > > >
> > > > > How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving
> > > the
> > > > > meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex
> > > > > jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a
> > > > > penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
> > > > >
> > > > > Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the
> > > number
> > > > > of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then
> > > it's
> > > > > 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Could you elaborate a little more on this:
> > > >
> > > > > play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots
> > > > > take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more
> > > difficult
> > > > > to do on the spot.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's
> > > > > mid point.
> > > > >
> > > > > This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how
> > > changes
> > > > > in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
> > > > > progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules
> > > screen to
> > > > > get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in
> > > Australia
> > > > > get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
> > > > > starting number.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error
> > > of
> > > > > plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the
> > > > > lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2.
> > > > > Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
> > > > > $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds
> > > of it
> > > > > is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't
> > > say
> > > > > you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out
> > > when you
> > > > > hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
> > > > > I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
> > > > > betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
> > > > > parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49.
> > > It's a
> > > > > 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > > > > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > > > > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > > > > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > > > > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
> > > > > Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have
> > > many
> > > > > losing plays.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Next post....
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#38

Another thing to consider is that its very easy to blow $300 on a slow meter cold set "$46" mini, and still not hit it ! I personally wont go near these things unless the mini is over 48.

···

----- Original Message ----- From: "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Monday, March 04, 2013 1:36 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: ADVANTAGE SLOTS

The thing that I would emphasize most is that there is no single number. Learn the basic math and do an ev calculation for these machines in less than a minute. One of the biggest mistakes I see is people treating all of these machines. The bad hustlers grind must hit by majors at 475 if the meter rise is 4 dollars a penny and keep losing most of the time. They attribute it to getting unlucky when it's a negative ev play.

Another consideration is what you are maximizing. If you want some slot play to disguise vp your number will be lower than a hustler without a players card that is just maximizing ev. Taking a break even machine has what I call a negative ev opportunity cost. If you wait and check back later after giving it up you may eventually get it at a positive ev point.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Paul Coleman <pdcolemanjr@...> wrote:

#39

And easy to win 400 before you hit the mini. It's variance, signal to noise ratio is very low on a minor.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tomflush" <tomflush@...> wrote:

Another thing to consider is that its very easy to blow $300 on a slow meter
cold set "$46" mini, and still not hit it ! I personally wont go near these
things unless the mini is over 48.

----- Original Message -----
From: "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Monday, March 04, 2013 1:36 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: ADVANTAGE SLOTS

> The thing that I would emphasize most is that there is no single number.
> Learn the basic math and do an ev calculation for these machines in less
> than a minute. One of the biggest mistakes I see is people treating all of
> these machines. The bad hustlers grind must hit by majors at 475 if the
> meter rise is 4 dollars a penny and keep losing most of the time. They
> attribute it to getting unlucky when it's a negative ev play.
>
> Another consideration is what you are maximizing. If you want some slot
> play to disguise vp your number will be lower than a hustler without a
> players card that is just maximizing ev. Taking a break even machine has
> what I call a negative ev opportunity cost. If you wait and check back
> later after giving it up you may eventually get it at a positive ev point.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Paul Coleman <pdcolemanjr@> wrote:

#40

Ah, I see, thanks.

Do you have any insight on trying to figure the "non-must pay machines"? I
see far more of these around. They will have say 5 progressives, starting
with small frequent jackpots of say $10 at reset and continuing on
up to $1000 or whatever. Or, they may only have two. Might I assume in
the latter case if both the meters are say 70% over reset that's
interesting?

···

On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 3:23 PM, vpplayer88 <vpplayer88@yahoo.com> wrote:

**

One of the key unknowns in doing the math for these machines is what the
house edge is. We have data on the overall house edge on all penny machines
for many casinos. It's usually 10 or 11 percent or something in that range.
But that's not the relevant variable for doing math on the machine. That is
the total return for machines which includes the return that comes from
players winning jackpots. You have to adjust the house edge upward when
doing the math for hit points on jackpots because you are interested in the
return of the base game, if the same line pays were awarded but there was
no jackpot. For a major with a 2% meter rise resets at 250 must hit by 500,
the adjustment is about 1%.

I also believe the returns on the machines are probably a bit lower than
penny slots as a whole because there are some penny slots where you have to
play max to earn a higher return, and that should skew the results for
machines where playing max doesn't yield a higher return.

My estimate for a major minor 25-50 and 250-500 at my local casino with 2%
meters on each is about 15% house edge ex jackpot.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
>
> The comment about adjusting for the jackpot's part of the total return.
> Thanks.
>
> On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 3:38 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
>
> > **

> >
> >
> > The formatting of your question didn't work to well on my browser so
I'm
> > not sure what you are asking about. Can you clarify?
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
> > >
> > > On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
> > >
> > > > **
> >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for
these
> > > > calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few
seconds
> > in
> > > > your head.
> > > >
> > > > The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of
playing
> > the
> > > > machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
> > > > estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise.
If
> > > > expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
> > > >
> > > > How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of
moving
> > the
> > > > meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and
the ex
> > > > jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the
meter a
> > > > penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
> > > >
> > > > Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the
> > number
> > > > of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then
> > it's
> > > > 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a
> > > >
> > >
> > > Could you elaborate a little more on this:
> > >
> > > > play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the
jackpots
> > > > take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more
> > difficult
> > > > to do on the spot.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just
it's
> > > > mid point.
> > > >
> > > > This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how
> > changes
> > > > in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
> > > >
> > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a
mystery
> > > > progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules
> > screen to
> > > > get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in
> > Australia
> > > > get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give
myself a
> > > > starting number.
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of
error
> > of
> > > > plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding
the
> > > > lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing
by 2.
> > > > Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
> > > > $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 =
3%.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback.
Two-thirds
> > of it
> > > > is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You
can't
> > say
> > > > you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out
> > when you
> > > > hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major
meter.
> > > > I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average
payoff for
> > > > betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the
upper
> > > > parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49.
> > It's a
> > > > 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > > > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > > > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > > > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > > > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
> > > > Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will
have
> > many
> > > > losing plays.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Next post....
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]