In a message dated 11/16/2002 5:40:55 AM Pacific Standard Time,
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com writes:
Date: Fri, 15 Nov 2002 15:15:21 -0500
From: Richard Mckenna <tmac@megalink.net>
Subject: Advantage players.Hi. I wonder if the worry about advantage players cutting into the
profits and affecting the gaming policy of casinos isn't exaggerated by
members of this group. After all an exceptionally
good player, playing five quarter FPDW, can only expect to make one or
two cents per hand. And that's playing perfectly over the long, long
run!!. That's around $7.00 to $8.00 per hour. As a wild guess, I think
that, there may be two or three hundred perfect players in Las Vegas at
any one time. I really doubt that the hourly cost of these expert
players, {$8.00 X 200 = $1600.00/hr}, is of any concern at all when
spread out among all those casinos in Las Vegas. Now I have good
friends that do make a
lot more than $8.00/hr playing V.P. and I can't account for their
success, but I do believe them. Somewhere my reasoning may be seriously
flawed. Maybe someone in the group can set me straight. Dick M.
I doubt if quarter players are the main threat right now.
Sooner or later a top exec with a bottom-line orientatiion will filter their
customer list with an approach similar to this:
1. Run a listing of your high-volume players over the last month, quarter &
year.
2. Identify the top 10% & do a detailed analysis of their plays & stays.
3. Ignore if there's no pattern--that is, player plays fair % of slots as
well as beatable games (VP, BJ, sports betting) & comes in even when there's
no money promotion.
4. Analyze the rest for plays (only the beatable games or beatable when
combined with promotion/event) & stays (comes only when there's a
promotion/event).
5. Analyze the actual win/loss. If the losses are consistently greater than
theoretical, then the odds are we do not have an advantage player. Keep this
player.
6. What's left are the players that need to be comp-restricted or watched.
7. Repeat steps 3-6 for 2nd 10%. If you need to analyze the 3rd 10%, your
casino's in trouble, bail.
8. Must repeat on a periodic basis as players get more educated.
I don't think what I've described is giving away any trade secrets as this
type of customer analysis is or ought to be common in other industries & it's
been done for decades but the computer makes it much easier now.
Note, there's no mention of "winners" in the procedure so it can kick out
people who've been losing but who will eventually hurt you if they are
identified as advantage players.
Since it's hard to get the volume in, it will probably take a long time for
this type of analysis to reach quarter players but when a casino has tweaked
its profitability as much as it can by driving out all the advantage higher
denomination players then guess who's next.
BTW, I would venture to guess that the casino industry is one of those
industries where the financial talent isn't strong because in many cases
these were family or small operations that grew up & the margins in the boom
years hid a lot of sins. Tougher competition & a long-term stagnant economy
will push for more emphasis on the bottom line.
Right now, I think most operations (even the large ones) are only taking
steps 1-4 & that's why some people (big winners) have been kicked out or
comp-restricted even when they haven't been playing advantage situations. The
casinos are throwing future profits out the door but they either don't have
the talent or the time to go further in their analysis.
Are there ways to stay off the radar? I'm sure this is grist for another long
discussion. Maybe do what the successful blackjack card counters do.
Consider, however, it would take all the fun out of it to adopt disguises,
aliases, etc. & constantly having to look over your shoulder like a common
criminal.
Most of us will probably want to keep our day jobs.
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