vpFREE2 Forums

[acvpp] The Denon Demon?

#1

I have not tried to figure out the math behind Kelly. Actually I'm not even sure I could figure it out if I tried.

Is this formula ($4,221 x .0077/26 = $1.25) generalizable?

Thanks-rob

···

--- On Fri, 5/1/09, nightoftheiguana2000 <nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: nightoftheiguana2000 <nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: [acvpp] The Denon Demon?
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Friday, May 1, 2009, 4:41 PM

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Louis Mogol" <LouMogol@...> wrote:

The time to increase your bet is when you're up.

According to Bell Labs researcher J.L. Kelly, that's correct. The approximate optimal Kelly bet is:

bankroll x advantage/variance

So, if you were betting the optimal Kelly fraction, then doubled your bankroll, the new optimal Kelly fraction would be double. Conversly, if you halved your bankroll, the new optimal Kelly fraction would be halved.

Example, FPDW, your bankroll is $4,221, the approximate optimal Kelly bet is:

$4,221 x .0077/26 = $1.25

Betting more than Kelly increases risk and actually reduces bankroll growth (a bad combination and counterintuitive for many people). Betting less than Kelly reduces risk at the expense of less bankroll growth (a safer approach).

http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

Would have been great to have an updated list.

Anyone have a list of the variance of the better games still available? Everything from 9/6 job and up would be fantastic.

I can't seem to get a good list for any games. VPW isn't specific enough or I'm not smart enough to figure it out.

If I understand nightoftheiguana2000 correctly it would be usable for all games.

FPDW is 100.77

Z = dollars

Z * .0077/26 where 26 is the variance for FPDW. Personally I'd have to do trial and error to get to the $1.25 or $5.00.

So...

$20,000 (Z) * .0077/26 = $5.92
$17,000 (Z) * .0077/26 = $5.0346
$16,900 (Z) * .0077/26 = $5.0050

So... using this system you'd need a $16,900 bankroll for FPDW at $5.00 a spin.
More is you are conservative.

Right???

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Rob Reid <rreid0859@...> wrote:

I have not tried to figure out the math behind Kelly. Actually I'm not even sure I could figure it out if I tried.

Is this formula ($4,221 x .0077/26 = $1.25) generalizable?

Thanks-rob

--- On Fri, 5/1/09, nightoftheiguana2000 <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

From: nightoftheiguana2000 <nightoftheiguana2000@...>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: [acvpp] The Denon Demon?
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Friday, May 1, 2009, 4:41 PM

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Louis Mogol" <LouMogol@> wrote:
> The time to increase your bet is when you're up.

According to Bell Labs researcher J.L. Kelly, that's correct. The approximate optimal Kelly bet is:

bankroll x advantage/variance

So, if you were betting the optimal Kelly fraction, then doubled your bankroll, the new optimal Kelly fraction would be double. Conversly, if you halved your bankroll, the new optimal Kelly fraction would be halved.

Example, FPDW, your bankroll is $4,221, the approximate optimal Kelly bet is:

$4,221 x .0077/26 = $1.25

Betting more than Kelly increases risk and actually reduces bankroll growth (a bad combination and counterintuitive for many people). Betting less than Kelly reduces risk at the expense of less bankroll growth (a safer approach).

http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

yes, that's "correct" but be careful of what the number is telling you. Its
not that 17-large is a safe bankroll for $5, it's that at that given moment
in time, with that much money, you could be playing that. However, if you
hit a nasty variance, you should adjust your bankroll down. I know some BJ
players that will do this with every new shuffle of the cards or otherwise
rather frequently. This might be too impractical for VP. So, its not a BR
calculator, its more about what you could be betting at any given time

D

···

On Fri, May 1, 2009 at 3:32 PM, truushot1 <acptconstruction@comcast.net>wrote:

Would have been great to have an updated list.

Anyone have a list of the variance of the better games still available?
Everything from 9/6 job and up would be fantastic.

I can't seem to get a good list for any games. VPW isn't specific enough or
I'm not smart enough to figure it out.

If I understand nightoftheiguana2000 correctly it would be usable for all
games.

FPDW is 100.77

Z = dollars

Z * .0077/26 where 26 is the variance for FPDW. Personally I'd have to do
trial and error to get to the $1.25 or $5.00.

So...

$20,000 (Z) * .0077/26 = $5.92
$17,000 (Z) * .0077/26 = $5.0346
$16,900 (Z) * .0077/26 = $5.0050

So... using this system you'd need a $16,900 bankroll for FPDW at $5.00 a
spin.
More is you are conservative.

Right???

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com>, Rob Reid
<rreid0859@...> wrote:
>
> I have not tried to figure out the math behind Kelly. Actually I'm not
even sure I could figure it out if I tried.
>
> Is this formula ($4,221 x .0077/26 = $1.25) generalizable?
>
> Thanks-rob
>
> --- On Fri, 5/1/09, nightoftheiguana2000 <nightoftheiguana2000@...> > wrote:
>
> From: nightoftheiguana2000 <nightoftheiguana2000@...>
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: [acvpp] The Denon Demon?
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com>
> Date: Friday, May 1, 2009, 4:41 PM
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com>, "Louis Mogol"
<LouMogol@> wrote:
> > The time to increase your bet is when you're up.
>
> According to Bell Labs researcher J.L. Kelly, that's correct. The
approximate optimal Kelly bet is:
>
> bankroll x advantage/variance
>
> So, if you were betting the optimal Kelly fraction, then doubled your
bankroll, the new optimal Kelly fraction would be double. Conversly, if you
halved your bankroll, the new optimal Kelly fraction would be halved.
>
> Example, FPDW, your bankroll is $4,221, the approximate optimal Kelly bet
is:
>
> $4,221 x .0077/26 = $1.25
>
> Betting more than Kelly increases risk and actually reduces bankroll
growth (a bad combination and counterintuitive for many people). Betting
less than Kelly reduces risk at the expense of less bankroll growth (a safer
approach).
>
> http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

Would have been great to have an updated list.

Anyone have a list of the variance of the better games still available?

Go to the games page at vpgenius.com located here:
http://www.vpgenius.com/video-poker/games/ .

Choose a game, then click on Paytable Analyzer, then click on Analyze
Paytable. The first thing that you see under Results is the percentage of
return and the variance of the game selected. Keep in mind that he has set
the default analysis to be the FP version of the game. If you would like to
check another paytable, look to the left and click on paytable, then you can
change the payouts to duplicate any paytable that you would like to check.
Just rinse and repeat the steps that you did before on the FP version.
                                        Nudge

···

From: "truushot1"
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: [acvpp] The Denon Demon?

#5

Thank you very much. I've been to vpgenius before but didn't utilize all the features.

Truu

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nudge51" <nudge51@...> wrote:

From: "truushot1"
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: [acvpp] The Denon Demon?

Would have been great to have an updated list.

Anyone have a list of the variance of the better games still available?

Go to the games page at vpgenius.com located here:
http://www.vpgenius.com/video-poker/games/ .

Choose a game, then click on Paytable Analyzer, then click on Analyze
Paytable. The first thing that you see under Results is the percentage of
return and the variance of the game selected. Keep in mind that he has set
the default analysis to be the FP version of the game. If you would like to
check another paytable, look to the left and click on paytable, then you can
change the payouts to duplicate any paytable that you would like to check.
Just rinse and repeat the steps that you did before on the FP version.
                                        Nudge

#6

It's even simpler than that. Approximate Kelly Bankroll is bet_per_hand x variance/advantage. I'd recommend starting with double Kelly Bankroll, then if you get unlucky and get your bankroll halved (about a 10% chance of that happening), drop your bet per hand in half. On the other hand if you get lucky and double up your bankroll, you can double your bet per hand. Under this system, Double Kelly is your starting bankroll, Kelly is your stop loss limit, and Quad Kelly is your goal. Good Luck!

Example:

FPDW 5 coin quarters:

Double Kelly = $8,441 (starting bankroll)
Kelly = $4,221 (stop loss limit, go back to work to rebuild gambling bankroll to starting level or drop down to dimes)
Quad Kelly = $16,884 (goal!, move up to 50 cents)

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "truushot1" <acptconstruction@...> wrote:

Z * .0077/26 where 26 is the variance for FPDW. Personally I'd have to do trial and error to get to the $1.25 or $5.00.

So...

$20,000 (Z) * .0077/26 = $5.92
$17,000 (Z) * .0077/26 = $5.0346
$16,900 (Z) * .0077/26 = $5.0050